Weekly Wrap
7th - 10th June, 2022

Global stocks were mostly higher as China relaxed Covid-19 curbs in Beijing, thus easing supply-chain concerns. US 10Y yield rose further to 3.04%, as investors await CPI print. US CPI is expected to have inched up to 0.7% in May’22 versus 0.3% in Apr’22,on a MoM basis. This along with tight labour market conditions in the US, is likely to prompt US Fed to continue with its aggressive rate hike cycle. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson won the confidence vote. As a result, FTSE and GBP gained and 10Y yield edged up. In India, investors await RBI policy decision.

Global equity indices ended mixed. Investors monitored relaxation in Covid-19 related curbs in China, weakness in yen (20-year low), key central bank decisions (RBA, ECB, RBI) and movement in US 10Y yield. Hang Seng rose the most, followed by Shanghai Comp and FTSE. Sensex ended lower by 0.2% led by losses in consumer durables and capital goods stocks. It is trading further lower today; while other Asian stocks are trading higher.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Major global currencies closed mixed. DXY rose by 0.3% as US 10Y yield shot up to above 3% mark for the first time in two-weeks. On the other hand, JPY fell sharply by 0.8% as BoJ Governor reaffirmed the bank’s ultra-dovish stance. GBP rose by 0.4% as UK’s PM won the confidence vote. INR closed flat. However it is trading lower today; in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose the most by 11bps crossing the 3% mark, seen during mid of May’22. Tighter labour market data supported the view of a faster pace of rate hike by US Fed. Even UK and Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 9bps and 5bps respectively. Investors are awaiting major central banks policy decisions in terms of rate hike and ending of bond support program. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps (7.5%) ahead of RBI policy. It is trading further higher at 7.52% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices moderated slightly by 0.2% to US$ 120/bbl as gasoline and distillate stockpiles in the US are likely to increase, according to the Reuters poll report. However, it is likely to inch up as Saudi Arabia raised the Jul’22 official selling price (OSP). Gold prices fell by 0.5% as dollar strengthened.

Fig 7 – Commodities

World Bank sharply downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% in CY22 (5.7% in CY21) versus 4.1% estimated earlier. This is on the back of Russia-Ukraine war, Covid-19 curbs in China, soaring inflation and higher interest rates which will be detrimental for growth. The report further noted that there are considerable risks of stagflation-last seen during the 1970s. Even India’s growth forecast was lowered to 7.5% in FY22 from 8.7% estimated in Jan’22. Investors await US CPI data and ECB policy decision.

Global indices ended mixed ahead of key data releases scheduled later this week, including US CPI print and ECB policy decision. Sensex (1%) ended in deep red led by sharp losses in consumer durable and real estate stocks. On the other hand, US stocks traded higher led by stronger data print (narrowing trade deficit on the back of record exports). Sensex is trading lower today; Asian indices are trading higher.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies were mixed. DXY eased by 0.1% tracking fall in US 10Y yield. EUR rose by 0.1% even as Germany’s factory orders fell for the 3rd straight month. GBP gained by 0.5% supported by positive outcome of the no- confidence vote. JPY fell to a 20-year low as BoJ Governor opined that a weaker yen is likely to support the economy. INR fell by 0.1% amidst FPI outflows. However it is trading higher today; while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except Japan (flat) and India (higher), other global yields ended lower. After breaching the 3% mark, US 10Y yield fell by 7bps as investors await CPI print for May’22. Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps as factory orders fell unexpectedly in Apr’22 (-2.7% versus est. +0.2% MoM). India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (7.52%) ahead of RBI policy meet. It is trading further higher at 7.53% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Global crude oil prices dipped by 0.2% to US$ 119.5/bbl ahead of US inventories data. Gold prices fell by 0.5% as investors closely monitored US inflation print due for release, later in the week.

Fig 7 – Commodities

After World Bank, OECD too cut global growth forecast for CY22 to 3% from 4.5%. However, it ruled out “stagflation” risks. On the brighter side, China’s export growth bounced back to 16.9% in May’22 from 3.9% in Apr’22. Later today, ECB is expected to provide some guidance on the future rate path. In India, RBI raised repo rate by 50bps and revised inflation forecast upwards (6.7% for FY23). However, it kept growth forecast unchanged at 7.2%, while OECD trimmed India’s growth forecast to 6.9% in FY23.

Barring China and Japan, other global stocks ended in red. Markets in US and India fell the most, followed by FTSE. Investors in US and Europe await ECB’s rate decision and US CPI print. Sensex fell by 0.4%, following global cues and RBI’s alarm bells on inflation. Oil & gas and power stocks fell the most. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except EUR (higher) and INR (flat), other global currencies closed lower against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.2% tracking higher US 10Y yield. EUR rose by 0.1% ahead of ECB policy decision. JPY fell further by 1.2% amidst widening policy divergence. INR closed broadly unchanged despite higher oil prices. However it is trading lower today; while other Asian currencies are trading higher.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed mixed, with 10Y yields in Germany (6bps) and US (5bps) rising the most. Investors are expecting a more hawkish stance from ECB today. US CPI print is also due for release later in the week. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps (7.49%), as RBI reassured that it has tools (G-SAP/OMO) to manage government’s borrowing program if liquidity conditions tighten.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

T-bill rates at RBI’s weekly auction of Rs 330bn rose across the board. Cut-off yield for 182-day paper (+11bps to 5.63%) rose the most.

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Brent crude prices surged by 2.5% to a 3-month high, as demand from US remains robust. Demand is also expected to pick up in China as Covid-19 restrictions are eased.

Fig 7 – Commodities

ECB announced ending its asset purchase programme from 1 Jul 2022 and also signalled a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22. Inflation forecast for CY22 was revised up to 6.8%, while growth estimate was lowered to 2.8%. Notably, inflation is expected to be above ECB’s target of 2%, till CY24. In US, jobless claims rose more than expected to 229,000-highest since Jan’22. PPI inflation in China eased to a 14- month low of 6.4% in May’22 from 8.4% in Apr’22 on a YoY basis, as strict Covid-19 restrictions curbed demand. CPI inflation remained steady at 2.1% in May’22. In India, IIP data is scheduled to be released later in the day.

Except Nikkei (flat), global equity indices ended lower. Investors monitored ECB policy decision, developments surrounding China’s “Covid zero” policy and jobless claims data in the US. S&P 500 fell the most (2.4%) followed by Dow Jones (1.9%) and FTSE (1.5%). However, Sensex, rose by 0.8%, led by oil and gas and technology stocks. It is trading lower today; while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed lower. DXY rose by 0.7% tracking higher US 10Y yield. EUR depreciated the most by 0.9% as ECB revised the growth forecast for CY22 sharply lower to 2.8% versus 3.7% earlier. INR weakened marginally to a fresh record-low of 77.77/$ amidst persistent FPI outflows. It is trading further lower today; while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed mixed. While China’s 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps on expectation of more stimulus from PBOC, Japan’s 10Y yield closed stable as PPI data (MoM) remained flat against est.: 0.6% increase in May’22. On the other hand, Germany’s 10Y yield rose sharply by 8bps following ECB’s signalling of 25bps rate hike in Jul’22. It also revised its inflation projection upwards to 6.8% in CY22 (5.1% earlier). India’s 10Y yield closed flat at 7.5%. It is trading at 7.52% ahead of auction results.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

T-bill rates at RBI’s weekly auction of Rs 330bn rose across the board. Cut-off yield for 182-day paper (+11bps to 5.63%) rose the most.

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Brent crude prices fell a tad by 0.4% to US$ 123.1/bbl, as China imposed fresh lockdown restriction in Shanghai, thus raising demand concerns. Gold prices fell by 0.3% as dollar strengthened.

Fig 7 – Commodities