Economic Weekly Wrap
27 March 2023 - 31 March 2023
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27 Mar 2023
Timely actions by global Central Banks has kept the lid over the ongoing challenges in the financial system. However the risk of contagion resurfaced, adding to the unease and raising the risk of uncertainty yet again. This pushed the global indices in to jitters, as the credit default swaps of Deutsche Bank shot up. Against this backdrop, investors moved towards safe heaven, with yields taking a pinch and ending lower. Even strong flash PMI readings could not have much support. Markets will await the release of core PCE (US) and Germany’s IFO index.
Barring Dow and S&P 500, global stocks closed lower. Ongoing banking turmoil got escalated with credit default swap of Deutsche Bank noting considerable jump. Even a better flash PMI reading in Germany and US could not lift investors’ sentiments. Minneapolis Fed President also remained uncertain about whether the deepening crisis signal recession in the US or not. FTSE fell the most by 1.3% followed by Hang Seng (-0.7%). Sensex also fell by -0.7% dragged down by metal and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
23-03-2023 24-03-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,105 32,238 0.4 S & P 500 3,949 3,971 0.6 FTSE 7,500 7,405 (1.3) Nikkei 27,420 27,385 (0.1) Hang Seng 20,050 19,916 (0.7) Shanghai Comp 3,287 3,266 (0.6) Sensex 57,925 57,527 (0.7) Nifty 17,077 16,945 (0.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY, other global currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY continues to strengthen and edged up by 0.6% as investors monitored new developments amidst signs of nervousness re-emerging around the banking system. INR depreciated by 0.3%. It is trading higher today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
23-03-2023 24-03-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0831 1.0760 (0.7) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2287 1.2233 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 130.85 130.73 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.26 82.48 (0.3) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8232 6.8673 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields fell across the board. This was led by a risk off rally where appetite for sovereign securities increased. UK’s 10Y yield fell the most by 8bps, followed by Germany’s (-7bps) and US’ (-5bps). This week holds the key as US PCE data is scheduled to be released and is expected to inch up by 0.3% in Feb’23 (MoM), which will guide the trajectory of US 10Y yield. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps (7.31%) tracking global yields. It is trading at 7.32% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-03-2023 24-03-2023 change in bps US 3.43 3.38 (5) UK 3.36 3.28 (8) Germany 2.20 2.13 (7) Japan 0.32 0.32 (1) China 2.87 2.87 0 India 7.33 7.31 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
23-03-2023 24-03-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.71 6.73 2 Tbill-182 days 7.20 7.18 (2) Tbill-364 days 7.22 7.18 (4) G-Sec 2Y 7.19 7.17 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 4.18 25 US SOFR 4.55 4.80 25 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 23-03-2023 24-03-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.4 0.8 0.4 Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.8 0 (0.8) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-03-2023 21-03-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (204.4) 102.9 307.3 Debt 26.6 229.2 202.6 Equity (231.0) (126.3) 104.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,029.5 203.1 (826.4) Debt 1,105.4 (148.5) (1,253.8) Equity (75.9) 351.6 427.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 28 Feb 2023 and 1 Mar 2023
Global oil prices fell by 1.2%, as risk to global financial system returned. Gold prices took a beating and declined by 0.8%.
Fig 7 – Commodities
23-03-2023 24-03-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.9 75.0 (1.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,993.4 1,978.2 (0.8) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,033.0 8,911.8 (1.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,936.0 2,923.3 (0.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,326.0 2,337.0 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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28 Mar 2023
Global markets gained comfort from announcement of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company will purchase all loans and deposits of Silicon Valley Bank. Asian shares on the other hand got a hit after US Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Binance holdings, a crypto-trading platform, citing regulatory concerns. On the macro front, Germany’s IFO Business climate was comforting rising more than expected, due to improvement in both current and future business environment. In UK, BoE Governor, said that focus will be on controlling inflation and not swayed away by other factors. In Japan, Cabinet approved use of some funds from fiscal 2022, to bring down inflation.
Except Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp, other global indices rebounded. Concerns over the US banking sector eased as First Citizens BancShares pledged to acquire all loans and deposits of failed SVB bank. Stocks in US, UK and Japan edged up. However, markets in China fell as industrial profit growth dipped sharply in Jan-Feb’23. Sensex rose by 0.2%, led by gains in metal and technology stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with its Asian peers.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-03-2023 27-03-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,238 32,432 0.6 S & P 500 3,971 3,978 0.2 FTSE 7,405 7,472 0.9 Nikkei 27,385 27,477 0.3 Hang Seng 19,916 19,568 (1.7) Shanghai Comp 3,266 3,251 (0.4) Sensex 57,527 57,654 0.2 Nifty 16,945 16,986 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY fell by 0.3% amidst easing concerns surrounding the US banking sector. JPY too fell by 0.6% as safe-haven demand waned. EUR gained 0.4% as Germany’s Ifo business climate index picked up unexpectedly, in Mar’23. GBP too rose supported by hawkish comments from BoE Governor. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-03-2023 27-03-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0760 1.0798 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2233 1.2287 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 130.73 131.57 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.48 82.37 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8673 6.8820 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. 10Y yields in major advanced economies (US, Germany and UK) rose as risk appetite was reduced following developments in the ongoing banking crisis. Notably, the US 2Y yield which rose by 21bps between 24-27Mar, fell by 7bps in the last trading session, reflecting some risk on sentiments. India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps (7.3%). All eyes are on the release of H1FY24 borrowing calendar. It is trading at 7.32% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-03-2023 27-03-2023 change in bps US 3.38 3.53 15 UK 3.28 3.37 8 Germany 2.13 2.23 10 Japan 0.32 0.32 0 China 2.87 2.86 (1) India 7.31 7.30 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-03-2023 27-03-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.73 7.03 30 Tbill-182 days 7.18 7.19 1 Tbill-364 days 7.18 7.21 3 G-Sec 2Y 7.17 7.17 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.80 4.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 24-03-2023 27-03-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.8 0.5 (0.3) Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0 0.6 0.6 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
23-03-2023 24-03-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (24.6) (69.5) (44.9) Debt (71.6) 107.7 179.3 Equity 47.0 (177.1) (224.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,029.5 203.1 (826.4) Debt 1,105.4 (148.5) (1,253.8) Equity (75.9) 351.6 427.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 9 Mar 2023 and 10 Mar 2023
Easing concerns over US banking sector pushed global commodity prices up. Oil prices rose by 4.2%. Gold prices fell by 1.1% as safe-haven demand faded.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-03-2023 27-03-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.0 78.1 4.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,978.2 1,956.7 (1.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,911.8 8,951.3 0.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,923.3 2,944.0 0.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,337.0 2,363.5 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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29 Mar 2023
Global currency and bond markets got breather from the recent comments of officials. Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman Michael Barr spoke of SVB’s crisis being an isolated one. In the Senate hearing, major officials spoke of tougher regulations for banks with more than US$ 100bn assets. On the macro front, the US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence rose more than expected to 104.2 (est.: 101) led by improvement in the short term outlook. CME Fed watch tool is now pricing a 58.5% probability of pause, down from 61% predicted a day earlier. Yield on US 2Y paper has also risen to 4.1%, as markets are now anticipating that comfort on the banking crisis would again lead Fed to shift its focus on inflation. In India as well, government has asked state run banks to come up with robust stress testing.
Global stocks ended mixed. Despite easing concerns over the banking crisis, US stocks ended lower amidst losses in technology shares. Stronger than expected increase in US consumer confidence also failed to lift investor sentiments. On the other hand, stocks in Hong Kong, Japan and UK ended higher. Sensex fell by 0.1% amidst losses in real estate and power stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
27-03-2023 28-03-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,432 32,394 (0.1) S & P 500 3,978 3,971 (0.2) FTSE 7,472 7,484 0.2 Nikkei 27,477 27,518 0.2 Hang Seng 19,568 19,785 1.1 Shanghai Comp 3,251 3,245 (0.2) Sensex 57,654 57,614 (0.1) Nifty 16,986 16,952 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.4%, as US banking sector showed signs of stabilising. Even US trade deficit widened in Feb’23 amidst a decline in exports. GBP gained 0.4% as BoE Governor downplayed any stress in UK banking sector. INR appreciated by 0.2%. However it is trading a tad weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
27-03-2023 28-03-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0798 1.0845 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2287 1.2342 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 131.57 130.89 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.37 82.19 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8820 6.8763 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China (stable), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most (+9bps), followed by Germany’s (+6bps). Inventors’ sentiments were supported by officials’ comments that the ongoing crisis might not have any contagion impact. Even, BoE said that currently there is no incipient stress in the UK banking system. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (7.31%). It is trading at 7.33% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
27-03-2023 28-03-2023 change in bps US 3.53 3.57 4 UK 3.37 3.46 9 Germany 2.23 2.29 6 Japan 0.32 0.36 4 China 2.86 2.86 0 India 7.30 7.31 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
27-03-2023 28-03-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 7.03 7.12 9 Tbill-182 days 7.19 7.21 2 Tbill-364 days 7.21 7.26 5 G-Sec 2Y 7.17 7.22 5 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 - US SOFR 4.80 4.81 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 27-03-2023 28-03-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.5 (0.1) (0.6) Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.6 0.6 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-03-2023 27-03-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (69.5) (47.1) 22.4 Debt 107.7 28.6 (79.1) Equity (177.1) (75.6) 101.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,621.4 1,461.5 (159.9) Debt (376.1) (254.9) 121.2 Equity 1,997.5 1,716.4 (281.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 9 Mar 2023 and 10 Mar 2023
Global oil prices rose by 0.7% amidst supply concerns, as exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region were halted.
Fig 7 – Commodities
27-03-2023 28-03-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 78.1 78.7 0.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,956.7 1,973.5 0.9 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,951.3 8,968.3 0.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,944.0 2,971.7 0.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,363.5 2,389.0 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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31 Mar 2023
Global markets monitored key macro data releases and comments from major Fed officials. Boston, Minneapolis and Richmond Fed President sounded hawkish and again highlighted prolonged impact of elevated inflation. On the data front, US jobless claims came in slightly more than expected at 198K (est.: 196K). The third estimate of Q4GDP data in the US was slightly revised down to 2.6% from 2.7% earlier, led by consumption demand. In China, PMI reading revived in Mar’23, showing economic activity is gaining momentum. In India, SEBI came up with a lot of reforms ranging from approving ASBA like facility for stock trade, announcing Rs 33,000 crore backstop emergency fund for debt MFs etc. Elsewhere, Centre plans to borrow Rs 8.88 lakh crore in H1FY23 (57.6% of overall borrowing). Maturity wise 14 and 40 year securities constitute 35% of borrowing.
Except Nikkei, other global indices ended higher. Risk sentiment improved amidst hopes that the banking crisis has largely being contained. Stock indices in US rose, led by gains in technology shares. Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng gained as Alibaba announced a major revamp plan. Sensex is trading higher today, in line with other Asian markets.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
29-03-2023 30-03-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,718 32,859 0.4 S & P 500 4,028 4,051 0.6 FTSE 7,564 7,620 0.7 Nikkei 27,884 27,783 (0.4) Hang Seng 20,192 20,309 0.6 Shanghai Comp 3,240 3,261 0.7 Sensex 57,614 57,960 0.6 Nifty 16,952 17,081 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.5% as US weekly jobless claims inched up and GDP growth for Q4 was revised lower. EUR gained by 0.6% as Germany’s inflation moderated less than expected in Mar’23. INR depreciated by 0.2% in last trading session. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
29-03-2023 30-03-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0844 1.0905 0.6 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2314 1.2386 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 132.86 132.70 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.19 82.34 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8895 6.8706 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except US and India (lower), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most (+5bps), as the economy avoided recession in Q4CY22, as per its final estimate. US’ 10Y yield closed lower by 2bps as jobless claims data inched up. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps (7.29%). It is trading stable today, as frontloading of government’s H1 borrowing remained below 60%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
29-03-2023 30-03-2023 change in bps US 3.56 3.55 (2) UK 3.47 3.52 5 Germany 2.33 2.37 4 Japan 0.32 0.33 1 China 2.86 2.87 1 India 7.31 7.29 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
29-03-2023 30-03-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 7.12 7.00 (12) Tbill-182 days 7.21 7.26 5 Tbill-364 days 7.26 7.29 3 G-Sec 2Y 7.22 7.17 (5) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.84 4.83 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 28-03-2023 29-03-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3) Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.6 0 (0.6) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
27-03-2023 28-03-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (47.1) 308.7 355.7 Debt 28.6 71.9 43.3 Equity (75.6) 236.8 312.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,621.4 1,461.5 (159.9) Debt (376.1) (254.9) 121.2 Equity 1,997.5 1,716.4 (281.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 9 Mar 2023 and 10 Mar 2023
Crude oil prices rose by 1.3% led by supply concerns as exports from Kurdistan remain suspended. Drop in US crude stockpiles also pushed prices higher.
Fig 7 – Commodities
29-03-2023 30-03-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 78.3 79.3 1.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,964.7 1,980.4 0.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,008.8 9,003.3 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,003.3 2,963.5 (1.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,380.0 2,386.0 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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