Economic Weekly Wrap
24 April 2023 - 28 April 2023
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24 April 2023
Economic activity in major economies picked up pace, supported by a recovery in services sector. Flash services PMI in US, UK, Eurozone and Japan showed a further improvement. On the other hand, manufacturing activity remained weak with flash PMIs in UK, Japan, Eurozone falling deeper in the contractionary territory. Bucking the trend, US manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high at 52.8 in Apr’23 versus 50.2 in Mar’23. As a result, markets have solidified their expectations of another 25bps rate hike in May’23.
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY ended flat. Better than expected PMI data has bolstered views of a 25bps rate hike in May’23. EUR rose by 0.1% as Eurozone’s flash services PMI picked up to a 12-month high. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading further stronger today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-04-2023 21-04-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,787 33,809 0.1 S & P 500 4,130 4,134 0.1 FTSE 7,903 7,914 0.1 Nikkei 28,658 28,564 (0.3) Hang Seng 20,397 20,076 (1.6) Shanghai Comp 3,367 3,301 (2.0) Sensex 59,632 59,655 0 Nifty 17,624 17,624 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY ended flat. Better than expected PMI data has bolstered views of a 25bps rate hike in May’23. EUR rose by 0.1% as Eurozone’s flash services PMI picked up to a 12-month high. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading further stronger today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-04-2023 21-04-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0970 1.0986 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2443 1.2432 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.24 134.16 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.16 82.10 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8742 6.8914 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except UK and India (lower), other global yields inched up. 10Y yield in US and Germany rose the most by 4bps each amidst heightened expectations of further rate hikes by both Fed and ECB. India’s 10Y yield fell sharply by 4bps amidst strong demand in the weekly auction. It is trading further lower at 7.14% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-04-2023 21-04-2023 change in bps US 3.53 3.57 4 UK 3.77 3.76 (1) Germany 2.45 2.48 4 Japan 0.47 0.47 0 China 2.83 2.83 0 India 7.20 7.16 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-04-2023 21-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.77 6.78 1 Tbill-182 days 6.92 6.92 0 Tbill-364 days 6.98 7.00 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.89 6.86 (3) India OIS-2M 6.57 6.57 0 India OIS-9M 6.61 6.59 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.80 4.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 20-04-2023 21-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (0.5) 0.9 Reverse repo 1.2 0 (1.2) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-04-2023 20-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 18.9 69.6 50.6 Debt (1.7) 187.3 189.0 Equity 20.6 (117.8) (138.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,362.4 (1,261.6) (2,624.0) Debt 1,818.8 (787.1) (2,605.9) Equity (456.4) (474.5) (18.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Apr 2023 and 13 Apr 2023
Global oil prices closed marginally higher supported by pickup in services activity in major economies. On a weekly basis, prices were lower by 5.4%.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-04-2023 21-04-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 81.1 81.7 0.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,004.8 1,983.1 (1.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,865.3 8,778.5 (1.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,757.5 2,704.8 (1.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,421.0 2,396.5 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 April 2023
Global markets continued to track earnings report and macro data to gauge future course of monetary policy. While market participants expect the Fed to pause after a 25bps rate hike in May’23, expectations of rate cuts in H2CY23 are also increasing. BoJ is likely to maintain its ultra-dovish monetary policy stance even as inflation continues to remain sticky. On the other hand, major European central banks (BoE and ECB) are likely to remain on the monetary policy tightening path, with even a 50bps rate hike by ECB still a possibility.
Except Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp (lower), stocks elsewhere ended higher. Investors continued to await key earnings report and a slew of macro data which would indicate the future course of rates. Sensex rose by 0.7% supported by gains in banking and real estate stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian indices are trading marginally lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-04-2023 24-04-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,809 33,875 0.2 S & P 500 4,134 4,137 0.1 FTSE 7,914 7,912 0 Nikkei 28,564 28,594 0.1 Hang Seng 20,076 19,960 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,301 3,275 (0.8) Sensex 59,655 60,056 0.7 Nifty 17,624 17,743 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY and INR (lower), other global currencies appreciated. DXY fell by 0.5% as investors have increased bets of rate cuts in H2CY23. EUR gained the most by 0.5% as Germany’s Ifo business climate index showed improvement in Apr’23. JPY depreciated as BoJ is widely expected to keep its ultra-lose monetary policy intact. INR depreciated by 0.1% amidst higher oil prices. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-04-2023 24-04-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0986 1.1046 0.5 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2432 1.2486 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.16 134.24 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.10 81.91 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8914 6.8958 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 8bps as markets expect the Fed to pause its rate hike cycle after delivering a final 25bps rate hike in May’23. Concerns also remain over upcoming debt ceiling deadline. In Germany, 10Y yield rose by 3bps supported by improvement in business climate index. India’s 10Y yield fell further by 6bps to 7.10% - its lowest since Sep’22, amidst increasing expectations of a rate cut by RBI. However, it is trading higher at 7.12% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-04-2023 24-04-2023 change in bps US 3.57 3.49 (8) UK 3.76 3.78 2 Germany 2.48 2.51 3 Japan 0.47 0.47 0 China 2.83 2.82 (1) India 7.16 7.10 (6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-04-2023 24-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.78 6.80 2 Tbill-182 days 6.92 6.90 (2) Tbill-364 days 7.00 6.98 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.86 6.86 0 India OIS-2M 6.57 6.57 0 India OIS-9M 6.59 6.61 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.80 4.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 21-04-2023 24-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.5) 0 Reverse repo 0 0.2 0.2 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-04-2023 21-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 69.6 (187.6) (257.1) Debt 187.3 18.6 (168.7) Equity (117.8) (206.2) (88.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,362.4 (1,261.6) (2,624.0) Debt 1,818.8 (787.1) (2,605.9) Equity (456.4) (474.5) (18.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Apr 2023 and 13 Apr 2023
Global oil prices rose by 1.3% to US$ 82.7/bbl, amidst hopes that holiday travel in China could boost demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-04-2023 24-04-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 81.7 82.7 1.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,983.1 1,989.1 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,778.5 8,710.0 (0.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,704.8 2,657.3 (1.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,396.5 2,381.0 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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26 April 2023
Fears over the global banking crisis were reignited after First Republic Bank reported a sharp decline in its deposits. This coupled with a more than expected drop in US Conference Board consumer confidence index to a 9-month low of 101.3 in Apr’23 (est. 104), dented market sentiments. Increased fears of a recession forced investors to rush into safe-assets which pushed gold, JPY and DXY higher. Oil prices retreated as concerns remained over the demand outlook. On the positive side, US housing market showed signs of recovery with new home sales rising by 9.6% to a 13-month high.
Except Japan and India, stocks elsewhere declined amidst fresh signs of stress in the global banking sector. Mixed earnings report and drop in US consumer confidence index also dented sentiments. Stocks in US and Hong Kong fell the most. In India, Sensex rose marginally by 0.1% lifted by gains in power and real estate stocks. However, is trading lower today, in line with other Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-04-2023 25-04-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,875 33,531 (1.0) S & P 500 4,137 4,072 (1.6) FTSE 7,912 7,891 (0.3) Nikkei 28,594 28,620 0.1 Hang Seng 19,960 19,618 (1.7) Shanghai Comp 3,275 3,265 (0.3) Sensex 60,056 60,131 0.1 Nifty 17,743 17,769 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Safe-haven demand drove JPY and DXY higher, amidst fresh concerns over the stability of global banking system. While DXY rose 0.5%, JPY rose by 0.4%. On the other hand, EUR shed 0.7% even as ECB board member stated that a 50bps rate hike remains a possibility. INR closed flat. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-04-2023 25-04-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1046 1.0973 (0.7) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2486 1.2409 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.24 133.76 0.4 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.91 81.92 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8958 6.9326 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. While yields in US, UK and Germany edged down, yields in Asia were mostly higher. US 10Y yield fell by 9bps as a sharp drop in US Conference Board consumer confidence index points towards slowing momentum in the economy. Concerns also remained over the state of the banking system and upcoming debt ceiling deadline. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps to 7.13% as investors await the weekly auction. However, it is trading lower at 7.11% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-04-2023 25-04-2023 change in bps US 3.49 3.40 (9) UK 3.78 3.70 (9) Germany 2.51 2.38 (12) Japan 0.47 0.48 1 China 2.82 2.82 0 India 7.10 7.13 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-04-2023 25-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.80 6.79 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.90 6.89 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.98 6.99 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.86 6.90 4 India OIS-2M 6.57 6.58 1 India OIS-9M 6.61 6.57 (4) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.80 4.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 24-04-2023 25-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.6) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
21-04-2023 24-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (187.6) (162.8) 24.8 Debt 18.6 (121.9) (140.5) Equity (206.2) (41.0) 165.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,362.4 (1,261.6) (2,624.0) Debt 1,818.8 (787.1) (2,605.9) Equity (456.4) (474.5) (18.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Apr 2023 and 13 Apr 2023
Crude oil prices fell by 2.4% amidst demand concerns and a stronger dollar.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-04-2023 25-04-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.7 80.8 (2.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,989.1 1,997.4 0.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,710.0 8,506.0 (2.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,657.3 2,592.8 (2.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,381.0 2,335.5 (1.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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28 April 2023
In Q1CY23, US GDP growth slowed to 1.1% (est. 2%) from 2.6% in Q4CY22. Inflationary pressures remained with core PCE index rising by 4.9% in Q1CY23 (est. 4.7%) versus 4.4% in Q4. Further, labour market remained tight, with jobless claims falling by 16,000. This suggests that economy may be entering a phase of stagflation. Even so, the Fed looks set to deliver another rate hike next week. Elsewhere, BoJ maintained its ultra-dovish stance, while revising growth projections lower and inflation projections upwards. This comes on the heels of data showing a higher than expected increase in CPI in Tokyo. Core-core CPI rose at the fastest pace in 40-years.
Except FTSE (lower), global stocks ended higher. Investor sentiments were buoyed by strong corporate earnings. Apart from this, robust increase in personal consumption demand in Q1 and better than expected core PCE data in the US, also lifted sentiments. S&P 500 and Dow rose the most. Sensex rose by 0.6%, led by real estate and technology stocks. It is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
26-04-2023 27-04-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,302 33,826 1.6 S & P 500 4,056 4,135 2.0 FTSE 7,853 7,832 (0.3) Nikkei 28,416 28,458 0.1 Hang Seng 19,757 19,840 0.4 Shanghai Comp 3,264 3,286 0.7 Sensex 60,301 60,649 0.6 Nifty 17,814 17,915 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP and CNY, other global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY gained as US core PCE index rose more than expected, bolstering views of higher rates. INR too depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices moved up. However it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
26-04-2023 27-04-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1041 1.1028 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2469 1.2498 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 133.67 133.97 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.77 81.84 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9280 6.9225 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose the most by 7bps as pending home sales data, personal consumption demand in Q1 and core PCE posted solid growth. Even Germany and UK’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps each as markets are pricing in a 25bps rate hike from Fed. Japan’s 10Y yield closed on anticipation of the tone of future policy guidance from new BoJ Governor. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 2bps ahead of weekly auction. It is trading at 7.12% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
26-04-2023 27-04-2023 change in bps US 3.45 3.52 7 UK 3.73 3.79 6 Germany 2.40 2.46 6 Japan 0.47 0.47 0 China 2.80 2.79 (1) India 7.11 7.10 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
26-04-2023 27-04-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.81 6.81 0 Tbill-182 days 6.95 6.95 0 Tbill-364 days 7.00 6.98 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.90 6.88 (1) India OIS-2M 6.59 6.60 1 India OIS-9M 6.60 6.61 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.18 4.18 0 US SOFR 4.80 4.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 26-04-2023 27-04-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) (0.4) 0 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
25-04-2023 26-04-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (117.3) 290.1 407.4 Debt (73.1) 113.9 187.0 Equity (44.2) 176.2 220.4 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,362.4 (1,261.6) (2,624.0) Debt 1,818.8 (787.1) (2,605.9) Equity (456.4) (474.5) (18.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Apr 2023 and 13 Apr 2023
Crude oil prices stabilised amidst comments from Russia that the oil market remains balanced.
Fig 7 – Commodities
26-04-2023 27-04-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 77.7 78.4 0.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,989.0 1,987.8 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,535.3 8,569.5 0.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,644.3 2,621.3 (0.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,327.0 2,319.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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