Economic Weekly Wrap
18 June 2024 - 21 June 2024

Global markets will be eying out for fresh economic drivers, post the Fed rate decision last week of keeping rates on hold. Global Central Banks such as Bank of England, Norway and Switzerland, are expected to turn dovish in their commentary with a likelihood of a rate cut by Swiss National Bank. Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep policy rate on hold for 5 th straight time amidst elevated inflation. Separately, BoJ’s Governor noted that there is a possibility of raising rate in July, but it remains data dependent. The market will closely watch commentary by Fed officials, inflation data from UK and retail sales data from US to provide more guidance. In China, retail sales accelerated at a much faster pace than anticipated to 3.7% (est: 3%) and industrial production moderated to 5.6% in May (6.7% in Apr’24).

Global equity indices closed mixed. US indices ended in green supported by strong data (manufacturing activity in New York region inched up). The focus will shift towards retail sales data and commentary by Fed officials. Shanghai Comp ended lower amidst subdued data print (housing prices). FTSE too closed in red ahead of CPI data and BoE rate decision. Sensex is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were shut on 17.06.24

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell by 0.2%, despite a jump in US treasury yield. EUR and GBP made gains. Euro rose by 0.3%, as political tensions faded in the region. GBP held ground, as BoE is expected to leave rates unchanged until Aug’24. INR ended flat, but is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda | Note: Indian markets were shut on 17.06.24

Except for 10Y yields in Asia, yields rose elsewhere. US and UK 10Y yield rose the most by 6bps. Comments by Minneapolis Fed President that a rate cut might only be in sight at the end of this year spooked the markets. Various other officials are due to speak this week. In the UK, services inflation data is keenly awaited. India’s 10Y yield ended flat and is trading a tad higher at 6.99% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were shut on 17.06.24

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were shut on 17.06.24

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 11 June and 12 June 2024

Oil prices rose to the highest since Apr’24, on the back of tensions in the Middle East.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Retail sales in US inched up at a much slower pace than anticipated at 0.1% in May’24 (estm: 0.3%). This was attributed to the drop in sales at gasoline stations (- 2.2% in May’24) on the back of lower gasoline prices and lower sales in furniture and home furnishing. This also signalled that consumers are cutting down on discretionary spending due to higher prices and interest rates. Also, banks have been tightening credit access towards low-income borrowers. Against this, the market is expecting the Fed to begin the easing cycle from Sep’24 onwards. BoJ in the minutes highlighted, there remain upside risks to inflation from weaker Yen, tight labour market and expanding fiscal policy. It also noted currency movement is amongst key a factor impacting the economy and prices.

Barring Hang Seng, other global equity indices closed mixed. US indices inched up supported by rally in financial stocks and supported by gains in AI stocks. Awaiting the result of rate decision by BoE, European stocks climbed higher, with gains in construction stocks. A rally in real estate and consumer durable stocks, pushed Sensex higher. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were shut on 17.06.24

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell by 0.1%, tracking weakness in US macros and due to increased probability of a rate cut (67%) by the Fed in Sep’24. INR and EUR gained the most against the dollar, while JPY fell. INR appreciated by 0.2%, supported by FPI inflows. It is trading even stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda | Note: Indian markets were shut on 17.06.24

Except Japan (higher), other global yields closed lower. UK and US 10Y yield fell the most. Weaker than expected retail sales data in the US, and the hopes of UK inflation nearing 2% mark, led to dip in yields. India’s 10Y yield fell, even as oil prices rose. Tracking global cues, it is trading even lower today at 6.97%.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were shut on 17.06.24

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were shut on 17.06.24

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 12 June and 13 June 2024

Oil prices rose again, due to escalated geo-political tensions in the Middle East.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

In China, PBoC kept the interest rate unchanged with the 1-year lending rate at 3.45% and 5-year LPR at 3.95%. The 5-year LPR was last reduced in Feb’24 by 25bps in order to support the housing market. In UK, headline inflation was back at the 2% target level in May’24 from 2.3% in Apr’24, supported by the sharp drop in food prices. However, service inflation declined at a much slower pace than anticipated at 5.7%, raising the possibility of BoE to continue for higher for longer. In New Zealand, the economy exited recession after better than expected GDP print. The economy expanded by 0.2% in Q1CY24 after contracting by 0.1% in Q4CY23. On a YoY basis the economy rose by 0.3% higher than estimated 0.2%. On domestic front, the Cabinet increased the MSP of 14 kharif crops for the agriculture year 2024-25, ahead of the sowing season.

Barring Shanghai Comp and Nifty, other global equity indices closed higher. FTSE registered gains as investors monitored inflation (2% mark for the first time in 3 years) ahead of the BoE’s rate decision. Sensex ended flat as the gains in banking stocks were offset by sharp losses in real estate and capital good stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: US markets were shut on 18.06.24

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY ended flat, amidst thin trading due to Juneteenth holiday in the US. GBP gained, as services inflation related concerns are expected to keep rates higher for longer in the UK. INR ended flat, and is trading unchanged even today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda | Note: US markets were shut on 18.06.24

Major global yields closed mixed. 10Y yield in UK and Germany inched up, while it fell in China and Japan. Higher than expected services inflation in the UK (5.7% versus est.: 5.5%) impacted investor sentiments, and raised chances of BoE waiting longer before cutting rates. India’s 10Y yield fell, tracking dip in oil prices. It is trading flat today at 6.97%, awaiting fresh cues.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: US markets were shut on 18.06.24

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: US markets were shut on 18.06.24

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 13 June and 14 June 2024

Oil prices fell, ahead of US crude inventories report, due for release today.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

In line with expectation, BoE maintained status quo and kept rates unchanged at 5.25% (16-year high), The committee noted that inflation has reached its target mandate with indicators of ‘short term inflation expectations’ and wage growth moderating. 7-members voted to hold rate while 2 voted for rate cut. There is a 50% likelihood of rate cut in Aug’24 policy meet. On the other hand, SNB trimmed rates for second time this year by 25bps to 1.25% with expectation of 1% and 1.5% growth in CY24 and CY25 respectively. Separately, Japan’s headline inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.5% in Apr’24 with core inflation inching up to 2.6% (2.2% in Apr’24). On the currency front, Yen dropped to a record low and raised the possibility of BoJ intervention. In the US, jobless claims remained elevated with the 4-week average claims rising to 232,750 (highest level since Sep’23).

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: US markets were shut on 19.06.24

Barring CNY (flat), other major global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.3%, tracking gains in treasury yields. GBP and JPY depreciated the most. Increased chances of BoE lowering the rates in Aug’24, led the slide in GBP. INR fell by 0.2% (record low), in the wake of rising oil prices. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda | Note: US markets were shut on 19.06.24

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: US markets were shut on 19.06.24

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: US markets were shut on 19.06.24

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 14 June and 18 June 2024

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research