Economics Weekly
Wrap 11th - 15th July 2022

US non-farm payroll numbers rose more than expected by 372k (est.: 265k), signalling tighter labour market conditions and building the case for aggressive rate hike by Fed. Elsewhere, in China, CPI rose to its 23-month high of 2.5% against est.: 2.4% in Jun’22. On the domestic front, RBI Governor spoke of a "soft landing" for the economy. Further, in his speech he reiterated that inflationary concerns emanated from supply side factors. However, Governor noted that there are ‘increasing signs of sectoral price spillovers’. Markets in the current week will track the CPI data of India, US and also GDP print in UK and China.

Global indices ended mixed as investors shifted their focus towards the upcoming US inflation print and earnings report (scheduled later this week). Shanghai Comp dropped by 0.2%, ahead of major data releases. US indices ended lower by 0.1%. On the other hand, Sensex rose by 0.6% led by strong gains in capital goods and power stocks. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell by 0.1% even as US payroll additions rose more than expected. EUR and GBP rose by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. On the other hand, JPY fell by 0.1%. INR too depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices picked up. It is trading further weaker today in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except Japan and China (stable), global yields closed higher, UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 11bps followed by US (+9bps). Political turmoil in Britain and energy concerns in Europe kept investors cautious. Further Atlanta Fed President spoke of 75bps policy rate increase in Jul’22. India’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps (7.42%) as oil prices inched up. It is trading higher at 7.45% today, ahead of CPI data.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices rose by 2.3% to US$ 107/bbl amidst concerns of a tighter supply which outweighed fear of recession. Gold prices rose by 0.1% amidst safe- haven demand.

Fig 7 – Commodities

In the data heavy week, investors remain cautious as they await CPI print of US (expected to have increased further in Jun’22 from 8.6% in May’22), and GDP prints of China and UK. Expectations of weak economic activity in China (new Covid-19 restrictions have been announced owing to detection of new variant of the virus), and aggressive monetary policy tightening by the US, are feeding to fears of impending global recession. As a result, gold has dropped to 9-month low, while DXY has strengthened. On domestic front, RBI has announced measures to support the rupee by setting up a mechanism to settle international trade in INR.

Barring FTSE (flat) and Nikkei (higher), other global equity indices ended lower ahead of the key US data print (inflation, retail sales, factory output) and earnings report. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng (2.8%) dropped the most followed by Shanghai Comp (1.3%). Sensex (0.2%) too ended in red led by losses in technology and capital goods stocks. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended lower. DXY continued its ascent and rose by 0.9% ahead of the US CPI print and comments by Fed officials. A higher print would further add pressure of aggressive rate hike (75bps anticipated). Euro depreciated by 1.4% (20-year low) led by concerns of looming recession due to ongoing energy crisis. INR dropped to a life time low of 79.44/US$. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring Japan (flat) and India (higher), other global yields closed lower. Germany (10bps), US (9bps) and UK’s (6bps) 10Y yields fell the most. Investors remain cautious ahead of US’ CPI print due tomorrow. In addition, China’s trade and GDP print due this week are also keeping investors on edge. India’s 10Y yield rose only a tad by 1bps to 7.43%, owing to steady oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices remained broadly stable at US$ 107/bbl as China announced fresh Covid-19 related restrictions, thus casting doubts on demand outlook for oil. Gold slipped lower by 0.5% to 9-month low as US$ strengthened.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Even as concerns of a global recession are spiralling, both BoK and RBNZ have raised their respective policy rates by 50bps today. While in case of New Zealand this is the 3rd 50bps hike, in case of Korea, this is the first 50bps hike (previously rates were increased by 25bps). The aggressive stance is keeping in view to tame elevated domestic inflation and is also in line with other key global central banks. In India too inflation remains sticky at 7%. Food and fuel prices remain key concerns. We expect another 25bps rate hike by RBI in its next meeting. However, prices might see some relief with international oil prices falling below US$100/bbl

Barring FTSE, other global indices ended lower ahead of the key US inflation print (expected to be higher than 8.6% in May'22). Amongst other indices, Nikkei (1.8%) dropped the most followed by Shanghai Comp (1%). Investors also monitored growing concerns of global economic slowdown and fresh curbs imposed by China to curtail the spread of Covid-19. Sensex (0.9%) too ended in red led by losses in IT and metal stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed. Euro and GBP ended flat. Euro moved in parity with US$, with the possibility of falling to new lows ahead of US CPI print. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index dropped sharply (-53.8 from -28 points) raising concerns around Germany's energy supply. DXY continued to strengthen further. INR remained under pressure and depreciated by 0.2%. It is trading further lower today; other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring Japan (flat) and India (higher), other global yields closed lower. Germany (10bps), US (9bps) and UK’s (6bps) 10Y yields fell the most. Investors remain cautious ahead of US’ CPI print due tomorrow. In addition, China’s trade and GDP print due this week are also keeping investors on edge. India’s 10Y yield rose only a tad by 1bps to 7.43%, owing to steady oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices declined sharply by 7% to fall below US$100/bbl amidst fears of global growth slowdown and following the build-up seen in US inventories. Gold also dropped by 0.5% as US$ strengthened further.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Slew of macro-economic prints (US CPI, China trade, central bank decisions) guided the markets. US CPI rose to 9.1% in Jun’22 (est.: 8.7%), up from 8.6% in May’22, driven by elevated gasoline prices (+60% YoY and +11% MoM). This has increased the possibility of even more aggressive rate hike by Fed. On the other hand, China’s import data showed signs of slowing demand (1% in Jun’22 versus 4.1% in May’22), thus raising fears of global growth slowdown. Central Banks of Canada, Singapore and Philippines have further tightened their monetary policies to rein in inflation.

Barring Nikkei and Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended lower as investors monitored hotter than expected US CPI print. With this, investors are anticipating a much aggressive monetary tightening by Fed with a possibility of even 100bps rate hike. Sensex (0.7%) too ended in red, led by oil and banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed against dollar. DXY retreated from an all-time high and declined by 0.1% after US CPI rose to 40-year high in Jun'22. Euro rose by 0.2% and moved above the US$ parity (breached earlier), despite concerns around energy prices. INR weakened further as it crawled closely to the 80/$ mark. It is trading lower today, while other currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring Germany (higher) and China (flat), other global yields declined. US (4bps) and UK’s (2bps) 10Y yields fell the most. US CPI print indicates that monetary policy tightening will continue, leading to fears of impending growth slowdown. UK’s monthly GDP data surprised positively, however falling retail sales and slump in recreation activities suggests revival still faces concerns. India’s 10Y yield fell by 6bps to 7.34%, supported by steady oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

In RBI’s latest T-bill auction, short-end yields inched up. Cut-off yield on 91-day paper rose by 10bps, while that on 182-day paper was up by 8bps.

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices remained broadly stable as investors monitor US CPI print and await cues on Fed’s policy stance. Gold rose by 0.6% as US$ weakened.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Recent data from the US (PPI, jobless claims) indicates that while prices remain elevated, labour market is signalling slowdown. US PPI rose by 11.3% in Jun’22 (est.:10.7%) from 10.8% in May’22. On MoM basis too it rose (1.1%) more than expected (0.8%). On the other hand, jobless claims for the week ending 9 Jul 2022 rose to 244k (highest since Nov’21) from 235k in the previous week. Even China is showing signs of weak growth with GDP in Q2CY22 rising by only 0.4% versus est.: 1.2% and 4.8% in Q1. This is mainly the impact of stringent lockdown imposed to curb the spread of Covid-19 in early Q2. However, industrial production in Jun’22 showed signs of improvement (3.9%) compared with May’22 (0.7%). Even retail sales improved in Jun’22 (3.1%) versus May’22 (-6.7%).

Barring Nikkei, other global indices closed lower as investors asses the risk of global recession and aggressive rate hike by Fed. Hang Seng (0.2%) ended in red after Singapore tightened its monetary policy in an off cycle move. Sensex (0.2%) too dropped lower, led by technology and metal stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stock are trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended lower. DXY strengthened further (0.5%) as the demand for safe haven rose again amidst fears of global economic downturn. Euro slipped as EC revised its forecast downwards for growth and upwards for inflation. INR depreciated further to 79.88/US$, closing in on the 80/US$ mark. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring China (lower), other global yields inched up. 10Y yield of UK rose by 4bps, while that of US and Germany rose by 3bps each. Following elevated prices in the US, Fed is likely to raise rates by another 75-100bps later this month, thus raising fears of global growth slowdown. India’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps to 7.38%, as fears of domestic monetary policy tightening increased.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices fell further as US Fed is likely to take an even more aggressive stance on the quantum of rate hike later this month. Gold also fell by 1.5% as US$ strengthened.

Fig 7 – Commodities