Economics Weekly Wrap
05th - 09th September 2022

US labour market data showed that non-farm payrolls rose by 315k in Aug’22, higher than est.: 298k, but lower than previous months’ 526k. Unemployment rate also inched up to 3.7% versus est.: 3.5% (unchanged from Jul’22). Investors still expect that there is 75% chance that Fed will hike rates by 75bps in its Sep’22 meeting. Separately, G7 member countries have announced a mechanism to cap prices of Russian oil exports, thus banning transportation/insurance of tankers of Russian crude sold above that cap. This is aimed at draining Russia’s war chest, and lowering global energy prices.

Except Sensex and FTSE (higher), other global stocks closed lower/flat. Markets in the US fell the most as fears of aggressive rate hike by Fed lingered, despite mixed labour market report. Asian markets closed awaiting US jobs data. FTSE gained the most by 1.9%, while Sensex was up by 0.1%. Gains in Sensex led by banking and capital good stocks were countered by losses in oil & gas, auto and metals stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed mixed against the dollar. GBP and INR fell by 0.3% each, while EUR and CNY rose by 0.1% each. DXY rose by 0.9% to remain near its 20-year high, as investors continue to expect 75bps rate hike from Fed in its Sep’22 meeting. EUR gained as G7 members announced price cap mechanism on Russian oil exports. INR depreciated by 0.3% as oil prices inched up. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except US, Germany (lower) and Japan (flat), other global yields closed higher. 10Y yields in US and Germany fell by 6bps and 4bps respectively. Mixed US jobs reports contributed to the yield movement. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 4bps. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (7.23%). However, it is trading lower at 7.21% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude oil prices rose by 0.7% to US$ 93/bbl as investors expect OPEC+ to decide on output cuts to stem weakening prices. However gains were limited by concerns over Covid-19 in China and slowing global demand.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Latest services PMIs for major economies indicate slowdown in activity in Aug’22. PMIs for China, Germany, UK and France all indicate that growth is losing momentum, thus aggravating fears of slowdown in global growth. Investors are hoping that China will announce stimulus (fiscal and monetary) measures soon in order to revive growth. Looming energy crisis in Europe is also a concern with Russia pausing the supply of gas indefinitely. On the domestic front, services activity rebounded sharply in Aug’22. With growth still intact, RBI’s policy action will be guided by trajectory of inflation, influenced by global commodity prices. Production cuts announced by OPEC+ will determine the trajectory of oil prices.

Except Nikkei and Hang Seng (lower), other global stocks closed higher. Markets in the US were closed for holiday. Elsewhere, investors hinged hopes on China announcing more stimulus measures to revive economic growth. Most recently, PBOC has announced further cut in foreign exchange reserve requirement. FTSE gained 0.1%, led by political developments. Sensex was up by 0.8%, led by capital goods, banking and real estate stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring GBP (higher), other global currencies closed lower. CNY, EUR and JPY fell the most. Losses were led by evolving geo-political situation in the Europe as Russia has paused gas flows through Nord Stream-I indefinitely. Fears of recession also boosted dollar demand. INR depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices inched up. It is trading flat today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yields in Asia declined, they inched up in UK and Germany. Yields in Europe reacted to inching up of energy prices, which will fuel retail inflation further up and force ECB to take an aggressive policy stand. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps (7.22%) amidst hopes of India getting included in J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index. It is trading lower at 7.21% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude oil prices rose by another 2.9% to US$ 96/bbl as OPEC+ announced production cuts. Gold prices fell, as dollar demand remains strong.

Fig 7 – Commodities

US Aug’22 non-manufacturing ISM index came in at 56.9, higher than estimated 55.4 and also up from previous month’s 56.7. Investors are now expecting Fed to continue to hike policy rate by 75bps in its Sep’22 meeting. The fear is also that higher interest rate regime is likely to stifle growth in the coming quarters. Central Bank of Australia too increased its policy rate by 50bps to 2.35%—level highest since Jan’15. As rates weigh in, Australia’s GDP seems to have stagnated, with Q2CY22 GDP at 0.9%, lower than estimated 1.1%, and similar to Q1 (0.8%). Elsewhere in Europe, high inflation is already impacting manufacturing and service sector growth. Demand from China is also likely to suffer as it maintains zero Covid policy and continues to keep its cities in lockdown.

Except FTSE, Shanghai Comp (higher), and Nikkei (flat), other global stocks closed lower. Markets in the US fell the most. Better than expected non- manufacturing US ISM print, has led to renewed concerns that Fed will remain on path of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Sensex fell by 0.1%, dragged by banking and auto stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring GBP and INR (flat), other global currencies closed lower. JPY, EUR and CNY fell the most. DXY rose by 0.6% and remains near its 20-year high. Fears of recessions have resurfaced following the release of services PMIs of Europe, and news of Covid-19 lockdowns in China. INR closed flat. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring India (lower) and China (flat), other global yields closed sharply up. Driven by increased concerns over Fed maintaining an aggressive policy stance, 10Y yields of both US and UK rose by 16bps, followed by 8bps increase in Germany’s yield. India’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps (7.18%), supported by dip in oil prices and amidst hopes of India getting included in the global bonds index. It is trading tad higher at 7.19% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude oil prices fell by 3% as global demand concerns weighed on. Continued lockdown restrictions in China and slowdown in Europe is weighing on demand.

Fig 7 – Commodities

US Fed’s Beige Book suggests that elevated inflationary pressures, higher mortgage rates, labour and supply shortages are hampering growth. However, personal consumption still remains relatively strong and overall economic outlook in Aug’22 was unchanged from Jul’22. Now investors await Fed Chair’s speech on more cues on rate action. Fears of slowdown in global growth have heightened after China reported worse (7.1% in Aug’22) than expected (12.5%) exports data (18% in Jul’22). Even Taiwan reported moderation in export growth at 2% (lowest in 2 years) versus 14.2% in Jul’22, led by decline in exports to China. Global composite PMI index has fallen to 49.3 (a first since Jun’20) in Aug’22 from 50.8 in Ju’22.

Global indices ended mixed as investors focus on upcoming Fed's Chair speech, signalling Central Banks's approach towards managing inflation. FTSE (0.9%) and Hang Seng (0.8%) dropped the most. US indices inched up, shrugging off growth concerns. Sensex ended in red, led by losses in auto and power stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except EUR and GBP, other global currencies ended lower. DXY retreated and fell by 0.3% on the back of fall in treasury yield. Investors will monitor ECB's rate decision and Fed's chair speech, scheduled later today. INR depreciated by 0.1% but opened higher today as oil prices tumbled. Other Asian currencies are also trading higher today.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global bond yields closed mixed. 10Y yields in US, UK and Germany fell sharply as recessionary risks loom. US Fed’s beige book also cautioned against elevated inflation hurting growth. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield rose a tad. It is trading sharply lower at 7.13% today, following decline in oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

RBI’s latest T-bill auction results indicate that cut-off yield on 91-day paper remained broadly unchanged while that of 182-day and 364-day inched up.

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude oil prices fell sharply by 5.2% (near 7 month low) owing to concerns surrounding risk of global recession and sharp fall in China’s export growth.

Fig 7 – Commodities

ECB in its latest policy meet, raised its key rates by 75bps, marking it as the largest hike on record. The central bank also vowed to hike rates in the coming months as well, so as to refrain inflation from getting entrenched and eating away savings and investments. US Fed Chair Powell also committed to stringent rate hikes to tame inflationary pressures. With tighter monetary conditions, global growth is expected to slow down and which will in turn provide relief to inflation. China is already witnessing the impact of moderation in economic activity. China’s PPI slowed for the 10th consecutive month in Aug’22 (2.3% versus est.: 3.2% and 4.2% in Jul’22). Retail prices also cooled off to 2.5% in Aug’22 (est.: 2.8%) from 2.7% in Jul’22.

Barring Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended higher as investors monitored a record rate hike by ECB and closely tracked Fed Chair's comments on inflation. Amongst other indices, Nikkei (2.3%) gained the most. Sensex too traded in green led by gains in banking and capital goods stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Apart from INR and CNY, other global currencies ended lower. DXY retreated after hawkish commentary by ECB and Fed chair. GBP and EUR both dropped after news of the death of Britain's longest serving monarch. JPY also traded lower as policy divergence between BoJ's and other central banks cannot be ignored. INR is trading higher today; other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global bond yields closed mixed. 10Y yields in Germany and UK increased the most by 14bps and 11bps respectively. US 10Y yield was up by 5bps. Investor sentiments were impacted by ECB’s decision to hike policy rate and Fed Chair Powell’s reiteration that Fed will continue to hike rate till inflation is under control. India’s 10Y yield fell steeply by 11bps as oil prices remain below US$ 90/bbl mark. However, following global cues, it is trading higher at 7.14% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude oil prices rose by 1.3% to US$ 89/bbl as Russia has threatened to stop the supply of oil and gas to countries that implement price cap. Prices rose even as US stockpiles increased by ~9mn barrels.

Fig 7 – Commodities