Economic Weekly Wrap
03 October 2023 - 06 October 2023

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  • 03 Oct 2023

    US PCE deflator closely tracked by Fed to gauge underlying price pressure rose at a sharper pace by 0.4% in Aug’23 compared to 0.2% in Jul’23, on MoM basis. Even University of Michigan’s both 1 Year and 5-10 Year inflation expectations remained sticky. US ISM manufacturing print also inched up to 49 in Sep’23 compared to 47.6 seen in Aug’23. More importantly, the employment index rose to 51.2 compared to 48.5 in Aug’23, affirming tighter labour market conditions. This all led expectations of higher for longer rates by Fed. Even Fed governor Michelle Bowman also remained hawkish on the back of uncertainty reigning inflation. On domestic front, slew of macro data releases pointed to resilience of Indian economy. GST collections rose 10% crossing the Rs 1.6 lakh crore mark, core sector output rose by 12.1% in Aug’23 from 8.4% in Jul’23. In the current week, all eyes will be on movement of crude oil and RBI’s policy.

    Global indices ended mixed as investors braced for the possibility of higher US rates. US stocks ended mixed after comments from Fed Chair. FTSE fell the most by 1.3%, as manufacturing PMI remained well below the expansion zone. Sensex is trading lower today amidst adverse global cues, with all sectors in red. Asian markets are also trading weaker.


    DXY rose further by 0.7% as continued strength in US economy has increased the likelihood of higher US rates. Both EUR and GBP depreciated, as manufacturing activity deteriorated further. JPY inched closer to 150/$, raising possibility of intervention. INR is trading weaker today, in line with Asian peers.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      29-09-2023 02-10-2023 % change
    Dow Jones 33,508 33,433 (0.2)
    S & P 500 4,288 4,288 0.0
    FTSE 7,608 7,511 (1.3)
    Nikkei 31,858 31,760 (0.3)
    Hang Seng 17,373 17,810 2.5
    Shanghai Comp 3,107 3,110 0.1
    Sensex 65,508 65,828 0.5
    Nifty 19,524 19,638 0.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    DXY rose further by 0.7% as continued strength in US economy has increased the likelihood of higher US rates. Both EUR and GBP depreciated, as manufacturing activity deteriorated further. JPY inched closer to 150/$, raising possibility of intervention. INR is trading weaker today, in line with Asian peers.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      29-09-2023 02-10-2023 % change
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0573 1.0477 (0.9)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2199 1.2087 (0.9)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 149.37 149.86 (0.3)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.19 83.04 0.2
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.3118 7.2980 0.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except China (lower), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 13bps followed by US (+11bps) and Germany’s (+8bps). This was after US legislators were able to come to a short term agreement on fiscal prudence. Apart from this, macro data in the US also signalled tighter monetary policy. India’s 10Y yield is trading at 7.27% today, taking global cues.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      29-09-2023 02-10-2023 change in bps
    US 4.57 4.68 11
    UK 4.44 4.56 13
    Germany 2.84 2.92 8
    Japan 0.77 0.78 1
    China 2.69 2.68 (1)
    India 7.24 7.22 (3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      29-09-2023 02-10-2023 change in bps
    Tbill-91 days 6.92 6.80 (12)
    Tbill-182 days 7.07 7.03 (4)
    Tbill-364 days 7.08 7.02 (6)
    G-Sec 2Y 7.16 7.21 4
    India OIS-2M 6.84 6.83 (1)
    India OIS-9M 7.07 7.05 (2)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0
    US SOFR 5.31 5.31 -

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 27-09-2023 28-10-2023 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.2 0.9 (0.3)
    Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      26-09-2023 27-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 70.5 (291.3) (361.8)
    Debt 53.9 (28.2) (82.1)
    Equity 16.6 (263.1) (279.6)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (153.2) (879.8) (726.7)
    Debt (1,020.6) (2,298.5) (1,277.9)
    Equity 867.5 1,418.7 551.3

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 11 and 12 Sep


    Global commodity prices fell sharply amidst a sharp uptick in US dollar.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      29-09-2023 02-10-2023 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 95.3 90.7 (4.8)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,848.6 1,828.0 (1.1)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 8,212.5 7,978.0 (2.9)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2,642.8 2,581.0 (2.3)
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,347.0 2,321.0 (1.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 04 Oct 2023

    Sell off in the bond market continued with US 10Y yield rising by 12bps to its highest level since 2007. Markets remained jittery over tighter liquidity conditions which exacerbated the selling pressure. Even Fed official Raphael Bostic reiterated the need for tighter policy. Equity markets also took the beating. Elsewhere, Yen’s movement was keenly watched after Japan’s Finance Minister spoke of closely monitoring the currency market. In terms of macro data releases, US JOLTS job opening rose more than expected to 9610k (est.: 8815k). UK’s BRC shop Index showed some degree of moderation to 6.2% in Sep’23 from 6.9% in Aug’23, providing slight respite on inflation. Japan’s services activity slightly rose above last month’s level to 53.8. On domestic front, World Bank in its recent update said that amidst global uncertainty Indian economy has maintained its resilience and is expected to grow by 6.3% in the current FY.


    Global stocks witnessed a broad-based sell-off as higher than expected job openings in US, supported the narrative of higher for longer rates by the Fed. Stocks in Hong Kong, Japan and US fell sharply. Sensex too declined by 0.5%, in line with global cues. Oil and gas and auto stocks fell the most. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian markets.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      02-10-2023 03-10-2023 % change
    Dow Jones 33,433 33,002 (1.3)
    S & P 500 4,288 4,229 (1.4)
    FTSE 7,511 7,470 (0.5)
    Nikkei 31,760 31,238 (1.6)
    Hang Seng 17,810 17,331 (2.7)
    Shanghai Comp 3,107 3,110 0.1
    Sensex 65,828 65,512 (0.5)
    Nifty 19,638 19,529 (0.6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    DXY advanced to an 11-month high supported by better than expected labour market data. Most global currencies were lower. INR tethered near its record low led by FPI outflows. JPY appreciated by 0.6% amidst chatter of intervention. INR is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      02-10-2023 03-10-2023 % change
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0477 1.0467 (0.1)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2087 1.2077 (0.1)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 149.86 149.02 0.6
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.04 83.21 (0.2)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.3118 7.2980 0.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except Japan and China (a tad lower), global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose the most by 12bps. This was followed by tighter labour market data, thus raising hopes of higher for longer rates to prevent overheating. Germany’s 10Y yield also rose by 5bps tracking comments from ECB’s Vice President. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps taking global cues. It is trading at 7.25% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      02-10-2023 03-10-2023 change in bps
    US 4.68 4.80 12
    UK 4.56 4.60 3
    Germany 2.92 2.97 5
    Japan 0.78 0.77 (1)
    China 2.69 2.68 (1)
    India 7.22 7.23 2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      02-10-2023 03-10-2023 change in bps
    Tbill-91 days 6.80 6.86 6
    Tbill-182 days 7.03 6.96 (7)
    Tbill-364 days 7.02 7.01 (1)
    G-Sec 2Y 7.21 7.18 (3)
    India OIS-2M 6.83 6.85 1
    India OIS-9M 7.05 7.07 2
    SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0
    US SOFR 5.31 5.32 1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 02-10-2023 03-10-2023 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.9 0.4 (0.5)
    Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      27-09-2023 28-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (291.3) (241.5) 49.8
    Debt (28.2) 103.3 131.5
    Equity (263.1) (344.9) (81.8)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,052.9) (782.7) 1,270.2
    Debt (3,458.2) (793.9) 2,664.2
    Equity 1,405.2 11.2 (1,394.0)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 11 and 12 Sep


    Oil prices edged up by 0.2% ahead of OPEC+ meeting.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      02-10-2023 03-10-2023 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.7 90.9 0.2
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,828.0 1,823.0 (0.3)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 7,978.0 7,929.0 (0.6)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2,581.0 2,473.0 (4.2)
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,321.0 2,290.0 (1.3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 05 Sep2023

    Some correction was visible in global equity and bond markets led by softening macros worldwide. US 10Y yield closed 6bps lower compared to its last session. This was supported by weaker than expected ADP employment change data which came in at 89K (est.: 150K). Durable goods orders came a tad less than expected at 0.1% (est.: 0.2%). Even ISM services index was lower at 53.6 compared to last month’s level of 54.5. Elsewhere even in the Eurozone, the Composite PMI remained well below the 50 mark at 47.2. Deteriorating demand conditions both in the manufacturing and services sector resulted in the same. Retail sales of the region also fell at a sharper pace than anticipated by 1.2% (est.:-0.5%). On domestic front, all eyes are on RBI policy decision where a hawkish pause is expected.


    Global indices were mixed after a slew of macro data releases from US. JP Morgan’s global services PMI index moderated to an 8-month low in Sep’23, amidst a broad based slowdown in services activity across the globe. While equity markets in US rose, stocks in Asia were lower, led by Japan. Sensex fell by 0.4%, amidst sharp losses in metal and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian markets.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      03-10-2023 04-10-2023 % change
    Dow Jones 33,002 33,130 0.4
    S & P 500 4,229 4,264 0.8
    FTSE 7,470 7,412 (0.8)
    Nikkei 31,238 30,527 (2.3)
    Hang Seng 17,331 17,196 (0.8)
    Shanghai Comp 3,107 3,110 0.1
    Sensex 65,512 65,226 (0.4)
    Nifty 19,529 19,436 (0.5)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    DXY retreated after lower than expected job additions (ADP) and a moderation in ISM non-manufacturing PMI. As a result, EUR gained against the dollar despite weak macro data (retail sales and services PMI). JPY and INR were a tad weaker. Asian currencies, including INR are trading stronger today.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      03-10-2023 04-10-2023 % change
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0467 1.0504 0.4
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2077 1.2135 0.5
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 149.02 149.12 (0.1)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.21 83.24 (0.0)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.3118 7.2980 0.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except Japan (higher) and India (stable), global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield fell by 6bps monitoring some moderation in private payroll data. Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps as composite PMI data remained below the 50-expansion mark. Japan’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps watching the movement in yen. India’s 10Y yield closed stable at 7.24%. It is trading at 7.25% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      03-10-2023 04-10-2023 change in bps
    US 4.80 4.73 (6)
    UK 4.60 4.58 (2)
    Germany 2.97 2.92 (5)
    Japan 0.77 0.81 4
    China 2.69 2.68 (1)
    India 7.23 7.24 0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      03-10-2023 04-10-2023 change in bps
    Tbill-91 days 6.86 6.84 (2)
    Tbill-182 days 6.96 7.08 12
    Tbill-364 days 7.01 7.10 9
    G-Sec 2Y 7.21 7.18 (3)
    India OIS-2M 6.85 6.89 4
    India OIS-9M 7.07 7.08 1
    SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 (0)
    US SOFR 5.32 5.33 1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 03-10-2023 04-10-2023 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.4 0.5 0.1
    Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      28-09-2023 3-10-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (241.8) 67.6 309.4
    Debt 103.4 168.1 64.7
    Equity (345.3) (100.5) 244.8
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,052.9) (782.7) 1,270.2
    Debt (3,458.2) (793.9) 2,664.2
    Equity 1,405.2 11.2 (1,394.0)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 11 and 12 Sep


    Oil prices slipped amidst concerns over demand outlook after weak PMI data.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      03-10-2023 04-10-2023 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.9 85.8 (5.6)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,823.0 1,821.4 (0.1)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 7,929.0 7,875.0 (0.7)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2,473.0 2,464.0 (0.4)
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,290.0 2,246.5 (1.9)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 06 Oct 2023

    Correction in global yields continued. In the US, jobless claims data came in less than expected at 207K (est.: 210K). However, all eyes are on the payroll number which is expected to soften a bit to 170K compared to previous month’s level of 187K. Whether it will be on expected lines or a discordant narrative will be seen, will hold the cue for movement of major asset classes. Elsewhere, in Germany both exports and imports fell more than expected by 1.2% and 0.4% respectively in Aug’23, on sequential basis. IMF’s Managing Director spoke of higher chances of avoiding recession and pitched in for soft landing. Further, inflation in some countries is expected to be above the target until 2025. On domestic front, RBI’s policy decision and narrative on liquidity will guide markets.


    Except US, global stocks ended higher. Markets found comfort from lower oil prices and a reversal in global bond markets sell-off. Nikkei rose the most by 1.8%. US stocks were lower ahead of the key jobs report. Sensex snapped its 2-day losing streak and ended higher by 0.6%. Capital goods and consumer durables stocks rose the most. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian markets.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      04-10-2023 05-10-2023 % change
    Dow Jones 33,130 33,120 0
    S & P 500 4,264 4,258 (0.1)
    FTSE 7,412 7,452 0.5
    Nikkei 30,527 31,075 1.8
    Hang Seng 17,196 17,214 0.1
    Shanghai Comp 3,107 3,110 0.1
    Sensex 65,226 65,632 0.6
    Nifty 19,436 19,546 0.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies ended stronger against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.4% as investors focussed on US non-farm payrolls data due later today. GBP gained the most by 0.5%, followed by a 0.4% gain in both EUR and JPY. INR ended flat. It is trading stronger today in line with other Asian currencies.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      04-10-2023 05-10-2023 % change
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0504 1.0550 0.4
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2135 1.2192 0.5
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 149.12 148.51 0.4
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.24 83.26 0
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.3118 7.2980 0.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global yields broadly closed lower. US 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps tracking comments from Fed official who spoke of not raising rates at the current juncture, as the situation itself is much more restrictive in action. Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps as ECB policymaker hinted that last month’s hike was the last in the cycle. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps at 7.22%. It is trading at 7.26% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      04-10-2023 05-10-2023 change in bps
    US 4.73 4.72 (1)
    UK 4.58 4.54 (4)
    Germany 2.92 2.88 (4)
    Japan 0.81 0.81 0
    China 2.69 2.68 (1)
    India 7.24 7.22 (2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      04-10-2023 05-10-2023 change in bps
    Tbill-91 days 6.84 6.84 -
    Tbill-182 days 7.08 7.06 (2)
    Tbill-364 days 7.10 7.11 1
    G-Sec 2Y 7.21 7.18 (3)
    India OIS-2M 6.89 6.88 (1)
    India OIS-9M 7.08 7.05 (3)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 (0)
    US SOFR 5.32 5.33 1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 04-10-2023 05-10-2023 change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.5 0.3 (0.2)
    Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0
    Repo 0 0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      03-10-2023 4-10-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 67.6 (529.6) (597.2)
    Debt 168.1 (54.4) (222.5)
    Equity (100.5) (475.2) (374.7)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (782.7) (2,490.3) (1,707.6)
    Debt (793.9) (1,255.6) (461.7)
    Equity 11.2 (1,234.7) (1,245.9)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 11 and 12 Sep


    Oil prices declined by another 2% weighed down by demand concerns.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      04-10-2023 05-10-2023 % change
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.8 84.1 (2.0)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,821.4 1,820.3 (0.1)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 7,875.0 7,823.8 (0.7)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2,464.0 2,450.3 (0.6)
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,246.5 2,232.0 (0.6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

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  • डिस्क्लेमर

    इस लेख/इन्फोग्राफिक/चित्र/वीडियो की सामग्री का उद्देश्य केवल सूचना से है और जरूरी नहीं कि यह बैंक ऑफ बड़ौदा के विचारों को प्रतिबिंबित करे। सामग्री प्रकृति में सामान्य हैं और यह केवल सूचना मात्र है। यह आपकी विशेष परिस्थितियों में विशिष्ट सलाह का विकल्प नहीं होगा । बैंक ऑफ बड़ौदा और/या इसके सहयोगी और इसकी सहायक कंपनियां सटीकता के संबंध में कोई प्रतिनिधित्व नहीं करती हैं; यहां निहित या अन्यथा प्रदान की गई किसी भी जानकारी की पूर्णता या विश्वसनीयता और इसके द्वारा उसी के संबंध में किसी भी दायित्व को अस्वीकार करें। जानकारी अद्यतन, पूर्णता, संशोधन, सत्यापन और संशोधन के अधीन है और यह भौतिक रूप से बदल सकती है। इसकी सूचना किसी भी क्षेत्राधिकार में किसी भी व्यक्ति द्वारा वितरण या उपयोग के लिए अभिप्रेत नहीं है, जहां ऐसा वितरण या उपयोग कानून या विनियमन के विपरीत होगा या बैंक ऑफ बड़ौदा या उसके सहयोगियों को किसी भी लाइसेंसिंग या पंजीकरण आवश्यकताओं के अधीन करेगा । उल्लिखित सामग्री और सूचना के आधार पर किसी भी वित्तीय निर्णय लेने के लिए पाठक द्वारा किए गए किसी भी प्रत्यक्ष/अप्रत्यक्ष नुकसान या देयता के लिए बैंक ऑफ बड़ौदा जिम्मेदार नहीं होगा । कोई भी वित्तीय निर्णय लेने से पहले अपने वित्तीय सलाहकार से सलाह जरूर लें।

Economic Weekly Wrap
09 October 2023 - 13 October 2023

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26 September 2023 - 28 September 2023

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हम अपनी वेबसाइट पर आपके अनुभव को बढ़ाने के लिए कुकीज़ (और इसी प्रकार के उपकरण) का उपयोग करते हैं। हमारी कुकी नीति, गोपनीयता नीति और नियम एवं शर्तों के बारे में अधिक जानने के लिए, कृपया यहां क्लिक करें। इस वेबसाइट को ब्राउज़ करना जारी रखते हुए, आप कुकीज़ के उपयोग हेतु सहमति देते हैं और गोपनीयता नीति एवं नियम और शर्तों से सहमत होते हैं।