Economics Weekly
Wrap 04th - 08th July 2022

Risks of a global recession intensified further amidst disappointing manufacturing PMI data from major global economies. Global manufacturing PMI slipped to a 22- month low of 52.2 in Jun’22 from 52.3 in May’22 led by UK (24-month low), Eurozone (22-month low) and US ISM (24-month low). Pace of expansion also softened in Japan and India. However, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI showed significant improvement to 51.7 in Jun’22 from 48.1 in May’22. US jobs data, scheduled later in the week will provide fresh cues to the markets.

 Barring UK (flat) and US, stock indices elsewhere ended the week lower. This was led by uncertainty due to gloomier global market sentiment amidst a surge in global inflation, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and synchronized monetary tightening, Nikkei (1.7%) fell the most. Sensex (0.2%) too ended lower and was dragged down by oil and gas and power stocks. It is trading further lower today while other Asian markets are trading mixed today.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except JPY (higher) and CNY (flat), other global currencies closed lower against the dollar. Safe-haven JPY and DXY gained by 0.4% each, amidst heightened risks to global growth outlook. EUR and GBP depreciated by 0.7% each, on the back of weak manufacturing PMI data. INR fell by 0.1% to a fresh record low of 79.04/$ led by global cues even as oil prices declined. However it is trading marginally higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed lower amidst worsening global growth outlook. US 10Y yield fell by 13bps as US ISM manufacturing PMI slipped a 2-year low led by a sharp dip in new orders. Manufacturing PMI in Eurozone and UK also moderated. As a result, UK’s and Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 14bps and 10bps respectively. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps to 7.42% supported by lower oil prices. It is trading further lower at 7.37% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Oil prices slipped by 2.8% to US$ 111.6/bbl amidst fears of global recession weighing on demand outlook. Gold prices dropped further on the back of firmer dollar. Further, gold demand is expected to dampen on the back of the import duty hike in India.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Global risk sentiment improved on reports that US President is likely to rollback tariffs on certain Chinese imports to check surging inflation. Global stocks and bond yields were mostly higher. Services activity in China picked up sharply in Jun’22 (PMI at 54.5 versus 41.4 in May’22). Services PMI in Japan also showed improvement. In India, trade deficit touched a new record high of US$ 25.6bn in Jun’22, putting further pressure on the country’s external position. As a result, INR is trading at a new record-low of 79.05/$ today.

Except Hang Seng (lower), global markets ended higher. Investors remained watchful ahead of US Fed minutes and BoE’s Financial Stability Report, scheduled to be released this week. Gains in European markets were led by oil and gas stocks. Markets also await ECB officials’ comments on rate and inflation in the current week. US markets were closed. Sensex also inched up by 0.6%, supported by banking and capital goods stocks. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except JPY (lower) and CNY (flat), other global currencies closed higher. EUR rose by 0.1% as elevated inflation print raised expectations of policy tightening by ECB. GBP too gained by 0.2% as investors assessed the possibility of bigger rate hikes by BoE. INR appreciated by 0.1% tracking gains in local equity market. However it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except Japan (stable) and India (lower), global yields closed higher. Investors remained cautious tracking Eurozone PPI data, PMI print of Japan and China and rate decision by RBA and Malaysia. India’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps (7.37%) as government’s introduction of special additional excise duty on exported crude oil products provided some breather on revenue loss, which might curtail additional market borrowings. However, it is trading higher at 7.41% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices rose by 1.7% to US$ 114/bbl, amidst tight supply due to lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia. Gold prices rose by 0.3% amidst safe haven demand.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Economic activity in the Eurozone as measured by the composite PMI, slumped to a 16-month low, further fuelling risks of a global recession. Global bond yields and currencies declined. Commodity prices too fell. DXY strengthened to a 20-year high on the back of safe-haven demand. In UK as well, apart from Brexit risks, political crisis also deepened which drove GBP and FTSE sharply lower. In India, INR fell to a fresh record low weighed down by concerns over widening trade deficit and persistent FPI outflows.

Global indices ended mixed as fears of a global recession aggravated. Investors continued to look for cues from central banks ahead of the Fed minutes and ECB report on monetary policy, scheduled later this week. FTSE (2.9%) dropped the most as political crisis deepened in the UK. Sensex (0.2%) too ended in red led by losses in FMCG and banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed lower. DXY rose by 1.3% to a 20-year high as concerns over global recession drove safe-haven demand. EUR depreciated sharply by 1.5% as Eurozone’s composite PMI index fell to a 16-month low in Jun’22. GBP also fell by 1.4% amidst a growing political crisis. INR slumped by 0.3% to a fresh record-low led by concerns over burgeoning trade deficit. It is trading marginally higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except India (higher), global yields closed lower. Fear of recession increased investors appetite for sovereign securities. Germany and UK’s 10Y yield fell the most by 15bps each ahead of the release of ECB’s accounts of its latest monetary policy. Even in UK, release of the financial stability report is awaited. US 10Y and 2Y yield curve also showed inversion with short end yields rising at a faster pace. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps (7.39%). However, it is trading lower at 7.32% today, supported by falling crude prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices fell by 9.5% to US$ 103/bbl, as recession fears aggravated with depreciating yen and yield curve inversion in US. Gold prices fell by 2.4% as DXY strengthened.

Fig 7 – Commodities

US Fed minutes highlighted that the MPC members were concerned about inflation getting “entrenched” and hence batted for a “more restrictive” monetary policy even though it might impinge on growth. Elsewhere, EUR continued to slide amidst rising fears of recession, while DXY gained on safe-haven demand. In India, RBI announced a slew of measures to shore up foreign inflows. This should help stabilise INR amidst fears of a widening CAD.

Global indices ended mixed. US stocks ended higher as US ISM services PMI was better than expected. Shanghai Comp ended lower by 1.4%, amidst reports of fresh Covid-19 outbreaks. Stocks in Japan and Hong Kong fell as fears of a global recession loomed. Sensex rose by 1.2% led by gains in auto and real estate sectors. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR and CNY (higher), other global currencies closed lower. DXY rose by 0.3% amidst expectation of further rate hikes by Fed. EUR depreciated the most by 0.8% as Eurozone’s retail sales rose less than expected in May’22. GBP fell by 0.2% amidst ongoing political turmoil. INR strengthened by 0.1% as oil prices eased. It is trading further higher today supported by RBI’s measures to boost foreign inflows. Other Asian currencies are also trading higher.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except India (lower) and China (flat), global yields closed higher. Investors remained cautious as Fed minutes spoke of ‘even more restrictive’ monetary policy might be needed to prevent entrenched inflation. Investors anticipate another 75bps hike in Jul’22. Thus, US 10Y yield rose the most by 12bps. Japan’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps amidst reports that the central bank is planning to revise its inflation and growth forecast. India’s 10Y yield fell by 9bps (7.29%- lowest since May’22) supported by lower oil prices. It is trading at 7.3% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

In the current TBill auction of Rs 210bn, cut off yields fell across the board (91- days:-2bps, 182-days: -12bps and 364-days:-15bps).

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices fell by 2% to its lowest since Apr’22, led by muted demand outlook amidst expectation of faster rate hikes by Fed.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Global stocks inched up amidst an improvement in risk-sentiment. Political uncertainty in UK ended with the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Further, reports that China is considering a US$ 220bn stimulus plan also boosted sentiments. In US, jobless claims rose unexpectedly to the highest since Jan’22 in the week ended 2 Jul 2022, suggesting a cooling off in labour demand. Investors keenly await US jobs report due later in the day.

Global equity indices ended higher. Stocks in Japan and US rose the most. Investor sentiments were impacted by concomitant factors such as UK PM’s resignation, minutes of major central banks (Fed and ECB), expected stimulus from China and underlying macro prints of major economies (US and Germany). Sensex rose by 0.8% supported by metal and real estate stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY was flat ahead of US jobs report. EUR fell by 0.2% (20-year low) as Germany’s industrial production rose less than expected in May’22 (MoM). GBP rose by 0.8% supported by hawkish comments from BoE’s Mann. CNY rose by 0.1% on reports of fresh fiscal stimulus. INR gained 0.2% supported by RBI’s measures to boost foreign inflows. However it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except Japan and China (stable), global yields closed higher, Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 11bps as ECB minutes highlighted that rate hike may be higher than 25bps (as initially expected). Even US 10Y yield rose by 7bps as Fed officials (Christopher Waller and James Bullard) spoke of more restrictive policy to curb price pressures. China’s 10Y yield remained stable as government is planning to sell US$ 220bn of special bonds for funding infrastructure. India’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps (7.35%) as oil prices inched up. It is trading higher at 7.38% today, ahead of the auction results.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices rose by 3.9% to US$ 105/bbl as supply woes aggravated with US sanctions on Iran. Gold prices rose by 0.1% amidst safe-haven demand.

Fig 7 – Commodities