Economic Weekly Wrap
31 July 2023 - 04 August 2023
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31 July 2023
Inflation in US as measured by Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE price index softened to 3% in Jun’23 (3.8% in May’23), its slowest pace in ~2 years. Core PCE index (ex. food and energy) rose by 4.1% in Jun’23 versus 4.6% in May’23. The data has raised the possibility that the Fed’s rate hike cycle may have reached its end. In Europe, while GDP growth in Germany stagnated in Q2CY23, growth in France and Spain showed resilience. Industrial output in Japan rebounded to 2% in Jun’23 versus -2.2% in May’23 (MoM). China’s official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.3 in Jul23 from 49 in Jun’23, but remained in contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.5 from 53.2, led by a steep fall in construction activities. In India, the South-West monsoon has progressed well and is now 6% above LPA. Kharif sowing was lower by 0.3% compared with last year, led by pulses and jute and mesta.
Except Japan and India (lower), global indices ended higher. Investors remained optimistic on hopes of soft landing. Minneapolis Fed President also showed confidence on inflation outlook. Even University of Michigan’s long term inflation expectation data remained well anchored. Nikkei on the other hand dropped following BoJ’s unscheduled bond buying operation. Sensex fell by 0.2%. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
27-07-2023 28-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,283 35,459 0.5 S & P 500 4,537 4,582 1.0 FTSE 7,693 7,694 0 Nikkei 32,891 32,759 (0.4) Hang Seng 19,639 19,917 1.4 Shanghai Comp 3,217 3,276 1.8 Sensex 66,267 66,160 (0.2) Nifty 19,660 19,646 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies broadly ended stronger. DXY fell by 0.1% amidst moderation in US inflation. JPY ended 1.2% lower, after BoJ announced a surprise tweak in its yield control curve. INR depreciated by 0.4% led by higher oil prices. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
27-07-2023 28-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0979 1.1016 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2796 1.2851 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.48 141.16 (1.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.94 82.26 (0.4) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1675 7.1485 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except US (lower), global yields closed higher. The most notable jump was seen in Japan’s 10Y yield which rose by 12bps as BoJ announced a surprise purchase of ¥ 300bn of bonds. US 10Y yield on the other hand fell by 5bps supported by softening inflation data. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps amidst lower than expected cut off for 2033 security. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
27-07-2023 28-07-2023 change in bps US 4.00 3.95 (5) UK 4.31 4.33 2 Germany 2.47 2.49 2 Japan 0.45 0.57 12 China 2.65 2.66 1 India 7.12 7.16 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
27-07-2023 28-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.69 6.70 1 Tbill-182 days 6.79 6.85 6 Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.88 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.03 7.07 4 India OIS-2M 6.59 6.63 4 India OIS-9M 6.80 6.82 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.31 25 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 27-07-2023 28-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.5) (1.4) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.6 0 (0.6) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
26-07-2023 27-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 140.6 (120.9) (261.5) Debt 2.6 31.6 28.9 Equity 137.9 (152.4) (290.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research ││Mutual funds data as of 12 Jul 2023 and 13 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose by 0.9% as markets are anticipating demand to rebound.
Fig 7 – Commodities
27-07-2023 28-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.2 85.0 0.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,946.0 1,959.5 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,528.0 8,625.5 1.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,456.5 2,502.3 1.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,205.0 2,222.0 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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01 Aug 2023
Fed’s quarterly survey noted that US banks have reported weaker loan demand and tighter credit standards in Q2CY23, reflecting pass-through of rising interest rates. Focus is expected to shift towards US ISM manufacturing data and non farm payrolls to provide further guidance on how the economy is shaping up, amidst signs of inflation cooling off. Inflation in Eurozone eased off to 5.3% in Jul’23 (5.5% in Jun’23) providing comfort to ECB and raising hope of ECB possibly skipping rate hike in the next cycle. Separately, RBA has maintained status quo, despite an expectation of 25bps rate hike. Japan’s unemployment rate dropped to 2.5% in Jun’23 (2.6% in May). All attention will now be on BoE rate decision scheduled later this week.
Global indices advanced higher boosted by strong corporate earnings. US indices climbed higher amidst reports of softening inflation, supporting investor sentiments. Amongst other indices, Nikkei (1.3%) surged the most followed by Hang Seng (0.8%). Sensex rebounded on strong global cues and amidst strong gains in power and metal stocks. It is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
28-07-2023 31-07-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,459 35,560 0.3 S & P 500 4,582 4,589 0.1 FTSE 7,694 7,699 0.1 Nikkei 32,759 33,172 1.3 Hang Seng 19,917 20,079 0.8 Shanghai Comp 3,276 3,291 0.5 Sensex 66,160 66,528 0.6 Nifty 19,646 19,754 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR (flat) and CNY (higher), other global currencies ended lower. DXY firmed up (+ 0.2%) following Fed’s report noted that higher rates beginning to have some impact on economy. JPY continued to slide further post BoJ’s decision of stepping away from ultra-loose policy. INR ended flat. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
28-07-2023 31-07-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1016 1.0997 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2851 1.2835 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 141.16 142.29 (0.8) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.26 82.25 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1485 7.1428 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. The 10Y yields in Japan continued to rise further after BoJ’s surprise announcement towards its yield control policy, allowing flexible movement of long term rates. US 10Y inched up by 1bps ahead of the release of the employment data. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps and is trading lower today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
28-07-2023 31-07-2023 change in bps US 3.95 3.96 1 UK 4.33 4.31 (2) Germany 2.49 2.49 0 Japan 0.57 0.61 4 China 2.66 2.66 0 India 7.16 7.18 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
28-07-2023 31-07-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.71 1 Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.84 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.88 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.07 7.06 0 India OIS-2M 6.63 6.62 (1) India OIS-9M 6.82 6.83 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.30 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 28-07-2023 31-07-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (1.4) 0 Reverse repo 0 0.9 0.9 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
27-07-2023 28-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (120.9) 199.2 320.0 Debt 31.6 46.9 15.3 Equity (152.4) 152.3 304.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research ││Mutual funds data as of 12 Jul 2023 and 13 Jul 2023
Oil prices continue to edge upwards amidst news of supply tightening.
Fig 7 – Commodities
28-07-2023 31-07-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.0 85.6 0.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,959.5 1,965.1 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,625.5 8,800.0 2.0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,502.3 2,565.8 2.5 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,222.0 2,282.5 2.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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02 Aug 2023
Fitch downgraded the US rating to AA+ from AAA over concerns of fiscal deterioration expected in next 3-years and repeated debt-ceiling negotiations with last minute resolutions that has eroded confidence in fiscal management. Beyond this, US JOLTS report noted that job opening has fallen to a 2-year low, however it remains consistent with tight labour market conditions. Additionally, US manufacturing data signalled some hope of stabilizing, albeit at a slow pace (46.8 in Jun from 46 in May’23) post improvement in new orders. The spotlight will turn towards US non-farm payroll, non-manufacturing data and BoE rate decision.
Global indices ended mixed as investors digested the news of the Fitch downgrading US long term foreign currency. Dow Jones edged up amidst mixed signals from economic data (lower job opening-still labor market remain tight and US manufacturing though in contraction- better than last month). European indices ended lower amidst weakness in global manufacturing. Sensex slipped led by subdued global cues and was dragged down by losses in real estate and cap good stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
31-07-2023 1-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,560 35,631 0.2 S & P 500 4,589 4,577 (0.3) FTSE 7,699 7,666 (0.4) Nikkei 33,172 33,477 0.9 Hang Seng 20,079 20,011 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,291 3,291 0 Sensex 66,528 66,459 (0.1) Nifty 19,754 19,734 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR (flat), other global currencies ended lower. DXY surged by 0.4% following the economic data that suggested that despite lower job opening, labor market conditions continue to remain tight. JPY remained under pressure tracking any move by BoJ. INR ended flat. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
31-07-2023 1-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0997 1.0984 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2835 1.2777 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 142.29 143.34 (0.7) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.25 82.26 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1428 7.1777 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan and India (lower), other global yields closed higher. The 10Y yields in UK climbed up by 9bps ahead of the BoE rate decision. US 10Y yield edged up by 6bps amidst news of tight labour market conditions. Germany’s 10Y yield was also up by 6bps. India’s 10Y yield declined by 1bps and is trading higher today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
31-07-2023 1-08-2023 change in bps US 3.96 4.02 6 UK 4.31 4.40 9 Germany 2.49 2.56 6 Japan 0.61 0.61 (1) China 2.66 2.67 1 India 7.18 7.16 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
31-07-2023 1-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.71 6.70 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.84 6.83 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.88 0 G-Sec 2Y 7.06 7.04 (3) India OIS-2M 6.62 6.62 0 India OIS-9M 6.83 6.82 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.30 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 31-07-2023 1-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (1.4) (0.8) Reverse repo 0.9 0.9 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
28-07-2023 31-07-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 199.2 (62.8) (262.0) Debt 46.9 31.3 (15.6) Equity 152.3 (94.1) (246.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 431.5 497.9 66.3 Debt (326.1) 434.8 760.8 Equity 757.6 63.1 (694.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research ││Mutual funds data as of 12 Jul 2023 and 13 Jul 2023
Oil prices slid breaking 3-day momentum despite lower US crude inventories.
Fig 7 – Commodities
31-07-2023 1-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.6 84.9 (0.8) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,965.1 1,944.3 (1.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,800.0 8,594.3 (2.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,565.8 2,567.3 0.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,282.5 2,255.5 (1.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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03 Aug 2023
Global markets reacted sharply to the news of Fitch downgrading US sovereign debt. On the other hand, analysts were of the view that the downgrade news is not expected to have any long term impact on the financial markets. US Treasury Secretary called the rating downgrade ‘entirely unwarranted’. Gold prices retreated following the news of hotter than expected US private payrolls data, signalling increased likelihood of more monetary tightening by Fed. Investors will closely track China’s private service PMI, US non-farm payroll and rate decision by BoE.
Global indices saw a broad sell off following the rating downgrade citing the likelihood of fiscal deterioration in the next 3-years. Amongst benchmark indices Hang Seng dropped (2.5%) the most followed by Nikkei (2.3%). S&P slid by 1.4% and was dragged down by tech sector which was worst performing against other sectors. Following global cues, Sensex too ended in red. Sharp losses were seen in power, metal and capital good stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
1-08-2023 2-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,631 35,283 (1.0) S & P 500 4,577 4,513 (1.4) FTSE 7,666 7,562 (1.4) Nikkei 33,477 32,708 (2.3) Hang Seng 20,011 19,517 (2.5) Shanghai Comp 3,291 3,262 (0.9) Sensex 66,459 65,783 (1.0) Nifty 19,734 19,527 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY (flat), other global currencies ended lower. Dollar index rose by 0.3% as US’ economic strength (private payrolls) outweighed fiscal concerns (Fitch downgrade). GBP fell the most awaiting BoE’s decision due today. INR was down by 0.4%, owing to FPI outflows in the equity market. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
1-08-2023 2-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0984 1.0938 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2777 1.2711 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 143.34 143.32 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.26 82.59 (0.4) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1777 7.1916 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
long. On the other hand, yield in UK was flat, while in Germany it fell by 2bps. India’s 10Y fell by 1bps, as oil prices declined. However, it is trading higher today at 7.18%, following global cues.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
1-08-2023 2-08-2023 change in bps US 4.02 4.08 5 UK 4.40 4.40 0 Germany 2.56 2.54 (2) Japan 0.61 0.63 2 China 2.67 2.66 (1) India 7.16 7.15 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
1-08-2023 2-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.71 1 Tbill-182 days 6.83 6.86 3 Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.91 3 G-Sec 2Y 7.04 7.05 1 India OIS-2M 6.62 6.62 0 India OIS-9M 6.82 6.80 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 1-08-2023 2-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.4) (2.5) (1.1) Reverse repo 0.9 0.9 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
31-07-2023 1-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (62.8) 130.1 192.9 Debt 31.3 126.9 95.6 Equity (94.1) 3.1 97.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 497.9 (423.1) (921.0) Debt 434.8 116.1 (318.7) Equity 63.1 (539.2) (602.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research ││Mutual funds data as of 12 Jul 2023 and 13 Jul 2023
Oil prices continued to slip, was down by 2% amidst a risk off investor sentiment post the rating downgrade.
Fig 7 – Commodities
1-08-2023 2-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.9 83.2 (2.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,944.3 1,934.5 (0.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,594.3 8,469.2 (1.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,567.3 2,479.5 (3.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,255.5 2,209.0 (2.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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04 Aug 2023
In line with expectation, BoE with 6-3 votes favoured to raise rates by 25bps to 5.25% (15-year high) and noted the borrowing cost will remain high for as long as it takes to return inflation to the 2% target level. Separately, RBA has trimmed its growth outlook for CY23 (1% from 1.25% earlier) though it sees inflation ‘moving in the right direction’. On the domestic front, India’s services PMI jumped to 13-year high of 62.3 in Jul’23 from 58.5 in Jun’23 on the back of robust demand. Despite the elevated inflationary pressure, strong demand conditions boosted new orders. Overall composite PMI inched up to 61.9 from 59.4 in Jun’23.
Barring Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended lower amidst the news of US rating downgrade. Investors monitored economic data (private payroll, US services PMI) with eyes on corporate earnings. S&P 500 continued to decline with at least 8 out of 11 sectors registering losses. Dragged down by health tech and utility stocks, Nikkei was down by 1.7%. Sensex too ended in red. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
2-08-2023 3-08-2023 % change Dow Jones 35,283 35,216 (0.2) S & P 500 4,513 4,502 (0.3) FTSE 7,562 7,529 (0.4) Nikkei 32,708 32,159 (1.7) Hang Seng 19,517 19,421 (0.5) Shanghai Comp 3,262 3,280 0.6 Sensex 65,783 65,241 (0.8) Nifty 19,527 19,382 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. Dollar index ended flat. JPY, CNY and EUR rose, while GBP closed flat. US$ struggled as investors await payroll data. BoE raised rates in line with expectations and slower pace of tightening is expected in the coming months. INR fell by 0.2%, led by more FPI outflows. It is trading even lower today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
2-08-2023 3-08-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0938 1.0949 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2711 1.2709 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 143.32 142.58 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.59 82.73 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1916 7.1697 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China (flat), other global yields closed higher. 10Y yields in the US (+10bps), UK and Germany (+7bps each) rose the most. In the US, increased probability of a soft landing, Fitch downgrade, and expectation around non-farm payroll is impacting yields. India’s 10Y rose by 4bps, as oil prices increased and hover around US$ 85/bbl. However, it is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
2-08-2023 3-08-2023 change in bps US 4.08 4.18 10 UK 4.40 4.47 7 Germany 2.54 2.61 7 Japan 0.63 0.65 3 China 2.66 2.66 0 India 7.15 7.20 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
2-08-2023 3-08-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.71 6.71 0 Tbill-182 days 6.86 6.88 2 Tbill-364 days 6.91 6.92 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.05 7.07 2 India OIS-2M 6.62 6.64 2 India OIS-9M 6.80 6.84 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.93 4.93 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.30 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 2-08-2023 3-08-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.5) (2.8) (0.3) Reverse repo 0.9 0.9 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
1-08-2023 2-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 130.1 (180.1) (310.2) Debt 126.9 1.8 (125.1) Equity 3.1 (182.0) (185.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 497.9 (423.1) (921.0) Debt 434.8 116.1 (318.7) Equity 63.1 (539.2) (602.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research ││Mutual funds data as of 12 Jul 2023 and 13 Jul 2023
Oil prices rose by 2.3% as both Saudi Arabia (production cuts in Sep’23 as well) and Russia (cut in oil exports) announced measures to tighten global oil supply.
Fig 7 – Commodities
2-08-2023 3-08-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.2 85.1 2.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,934.5 1,934.1 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,469.2 8,570.5 1.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,479.5 2,489.3 0.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,209.0 2,230.0 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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