Weekly Wrap
30th - 3rd June, 2022

Global markets are now expecting US Fed to pause rate hikes following its Jul’22 meeting. This is expected owing to fears of global growth slowdown. As an indication of that, China’s industrial profits fell by (-) 8.5% in Apr’22, (a first in 2 years). Industry wise profits of manufacturing sector were down by 22.4%, while that utilities were down by 26.8%. Further with oil prices remaining elevated, input prices pressures are expected to pinch.

Global indices ended in green supported by news reports of less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed on the signs of peaking inflation print and consumer spending. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng (2.9%) gained the most followed by S&P 500 (2.5%). Sensex (1.2%) to ended higher led by gains in technology and capital good stocks. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring INR and JPY (flat), other global currencies closed higher against the dollar. DXY declined by 0.2% with expectations of Fed hitting a pause on rate hike in the latter half of the year, after incorporating rate hikes in June and July meeting. Euro was up by 0.1% on the back of hawkish comments by ECB. INR is trading higher today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring India and China (higher), other global yields fell. UK (5bps) and Germany’s (4bps) 10Y yield fell the most, followed by US (1bps), led by growing concerns over growth slowdown. Analysts also expect that this will imply that Fed might pause rate hikes in the latter part of the year. India’s 10Y yield closed higher (6bps) at 7.35%, owing to higher oil prices and weak demand at RBI’s latest G-sec auction

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices rose by 1.7% to US$ 119/bbl on hopes of higher demand from the US, and continued uncertainty around EU embargo on Russian oil imports. Gold too rose by 0.2% as US$ retreated.

Fig 7 – Commodities

EU countries have reached an agreement to ban most of Russian oil imports under the 6th set of sanctions on Russia. The President of European Council has confirmed that this move will immediately impact 75% of Russian oil imports and ~90% imports will be impacted by end of CY22. As a result, oil breached the US$ 120/bbl mark.
Germany’s inflation at 8.7% in May’22 (7.8% in Apr’22) is already feeling the brunt of higher oil prices. Analysts expect ECB to hike rate earlier than anticipated. In US as the inflation is estimated to have peaked, Fed is expected to pause after July, thus lending support to global markets.

Global stocks rose further amidst an improvement in risk appetite. Reports of easing lockdown curbs in Shanghai and fresh stimulus measures to support growth boosted investor sentiments. Nikkei rose by 2.2%. Sensex too edged up by 1.9%, led by gains in consumer durables, real estate and technology stocks. However, it is trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring Japan (flat) and US (closed), other global yields rose. Germany (9bps) and UK’s (7bps) 10Y yields rose the most. Relaxation in Covid-19 restrictions in major cities of China helped boost investor sentiment. Also, record high inflation in Germany made a stronger case for ECB rate hike. India’s 10Y yield closed higher (6bps) at 7.41%, tracking jump in oil prices.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring Japan (flat) and US (closed), other global yields rose. Germany (9bps) and UK’s (7bps) 10Y yields rose the most. Relaxation in Covid-19 restrictions in major cities of China helped boost investor sentiment. Also, record high inflation in Germany made a stronger case for ECB rate hike. India’s 10Y yield closed higher (6bps) at 7.41%, tracking jump in oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices rose by 1.9% to US$ 122/bbl as EU countries reached an agreement to ban most (90%) of Russian oil imports by the end of CY22. Gold too rose a tad by 0.1%.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Elevated inflation print globally kept the investors on the edge. Eurozone inflation peaked to 8.1%, a record-high in May’22, amidst soaring energy prices. Thereby raising concerns of rate hikes by ECB much higher than anticipated. Bank of Canada is also expected to raise rates, in its policy meet scheduled later today. Stronger dollar once gain pushed gold prices lower. In India, a slew of data points were released including Indian economy clocking a growth 8.7% in FY22 against a contraction of 6.6% in FY21. Fiscal deficit came in lower at 6.7% of GDP. Core sector output registered an improvement by 8.4% in Apr’22 from 4.95%in Mar’22.

Global stocks ended mixed as investors closely monitored accelerating inflation print globally. Hang Seng (1.4%) gained the most with official manufacturing PMI registering an improvement in May’22 over Apr’22 reading (48.1 from 46). Dow Jones (0.7%) dropped the most. Sensex too ended in red led by losses in power and banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed lower against the dollar, with JPY (0.8%), EUR (0.4%) and GBP (0.4%) falling the most. DXY rose by 0.1%, supported by inching up of treasury yields. INR depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices edged up. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields rose sharply with US and UK’s 10Y yields rising by 11bps each, followed by 7bps increase in Germany’s 10Y yield. Investors reacted to US Fed Governor Waller’s statement indicating continuous 50bps rate hikes till inflation is curbed. India’s 10Y yield also rose (1bps) to 7.42%, following global cues and increase in oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices rose further by 1% to US$ 123/bbl as supply concerns linger, following EU’s ban on Russian oil imports. Gold fell by 1%, as yields increased and US$ recovered, owing to Fed hike concerns.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global markets continue to monitor ongoing challenges including elevated inflation, global slowdown, prolonged supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Eurozone manufacturing PMI moderated, US manufacturing on the other hand, rose at a much faster pace than anticipated in May’22. DXY edged upwards. San Francisco’s Fed president also spoke about half- point hike in the coming meetings in line Fed governor Waller’s remark yesterday.

Except Nikkei, other global indices ended lower over concerns of elevated inflation and looming threat of recession. European stocks dropped lower with moderation in manufacturing print for both EU and UK. Sensex (0.3%) too ended in red led by losses in power and technology stocks. However, it is trading higher today while with other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring INR (higher), other global currencies closed lower against the dollar, with JPY (1.1%), GBP (0.9%) and EUR (0.4%) falling the most. DXY rose sharply 0.7%, supported by higher treasury yields. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading even higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields rose sharply with US and UK’s 10Y yields rising by 11bps each, followed by 7bps increase in Germany’s 10Y yield. Investors reacted to US Fed Governor Waller’s statement indicating continuous 50bps rate hikes till inflation is curbed. India’s 10Y yield also rose (1bps) to 7.42%, following global cues and increase in oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Short-term rates in RBI’s T-bill auction (Rs 330bn) rose significantly across all tenures. Cut-off yield for 364-day paper rose the most (+17bps to 6.08%), followed by yield on 182-day paper (+9bps to 5.52%) and 91-day paper (7bps to 4.95%)

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices slid after news report of Saudi Arabia prepping to raise the oil production, following European sanctions on Russia. Gold inched up by 0.5%, amidst worries over elevated inflation print, pushing the demand for safe-haven..

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global markets continue to oscillate as investors track global data print over the hope of Fed not continuing with aggressive pace of rate hike. US private payrolls rose at a much slower pace than anticipated signalling a possible cooling off the economy. Dollar index slipped. Demand for safe haven (Gold) again inched up. Oil prices too edged upwards after US inventory dropped more than expected as demand rose. Markets will await US jobs report scheduled to release later today.

Global indices ended mixed as investors continued to monitor looming threat of surge in inflation. FTSE and Hang Seng ended lower by 1% each. Dow Jones on the other hand snapped its two-day losing streak as it gained by 1.3% ahead of US jobs report. Sensex (0.8%) too ended in green led by gains in oil and gas and IT stocks. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR (lower), other global currencies closed higher against the dollar, with EUR (0.9%) rising the most. DXY fell by 0.7%, owing to weaker than expected ADP employment print. INR depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices inched up. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except US and Japan (flat), other major global yields inched up. US investors remained cautious following unexpected dip in ADP employment print. Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps to reach near 8-year high level of 1.24% as inflation prints indicate that ECB will hike rates sooner than anticipated. India’s 10Y yield also rose by 2bps (7.43%), ahead of RBI’s auction of G-sec securities today, and also led by increase in international oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices rose by 1.1% to US$ 118/bbl on hopes revival in demand as China loosens Covid-19 restrictions in major cities and drop in US inventory. Gold too rose, by 1.2%, supported by retreating US$ (-0.7%).

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research