Economic Weekly Wrap
28 November2022 - 2 December 2022
-
28 Nov 2022
Global markets continued to monitor developments in China’s economy where protests emerged over Covid-19 restrictions. Elsewhere in Germany, recession fears were re-established with Gfk consumer confidence data falling below its expected (- 39.6) level at -40.2. In China, industrial profits fell by 3% on CYTD22 basis down from previous month’s drop of 2.3%. Profits for manufacturers were also down by 13.4%. China’s central bank reduced RRR by 25bps and injected liquidity of ¥ 500bn, to support the economy. Domestic markets will closely track month end data releases (fiscal, eight core, credit) and GDP data for Q3FY23.
Global stocks ended mixed as investors assessed the future path of Fed rate hikes and also monitored the Covid-19 situation in China. Both Dow Jones and Shanghai Comp edged up by 0.4% each. On the other hand, Hang Seng and Nikkei fell by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Sensex rose marginally to end at a fresh record high. Real estate and auto stocks rose the most. It is trading further higher today while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-11-2022 25-11-2022 % change Dow Jones 34,194 34,347 0.4 S & P 500 4,027 4,026 0 FTSE 7,467 7,487 0.3 Nikkei 28,383 28,283 (0.4) Hang Seng 17,661 17,574 (0.5) Shanghai Comp 3,089 3,102 0.4 Sensex 62,273 62,294 0 Nifty 18,484 18,513 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies depreciated against the dollar. JPY fell the most by 0.5%, as core CPI in Tokyo rose to a 40-year high. CNY edged down by 0.2% as Covid- 19 cases in China continued to increase at a record pace. INR depreciated by 0.1%. It is trading further weaker today tracking weakness in CNY. Other Asian currencies too remain under pressure.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-11-2022 25-11-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0410 1.0395 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2113 1.2092 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.54 139.19 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.63 81.68 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1520 7.1650 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except US (lower), global yields closed higher. Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 12bps as investors remained cautious ahead of the provisional estimate of CPI data. On the other hand, ECB’s Governing Council member (Gabriel Makhlouf) hinted at smaller pace of rate hike in CY23. US 10Y yield fell by 2bps post release of Federal Reserve’s minutes. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps to 7.3% as bid to cover ratio of 7.26GS2032 security suggested weak demand. It is trading lower today at 7.27%.Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-11-2022 25-11-2022 change in bps US 3.69 3.68 (2) UK 3.04 3.12 8 Germany 1.85 1.97 12 Japan 0.25 0.25 1 China 2.81 2.84 3 India 7.26 7.30 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-11-2022 25-11-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.42 6.39 (3) Tbill-182 days 6.72 6.69 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.83 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.86 6.86 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.80 3.79 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 24-11-2022 25-11-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 (0.2) (0.3) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
23-11-2022 24-11-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (216.3) 576.2 792.5 Debt 4.0 58.4 54.4 Equity (220.3) 517.9 738.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,043.9 1,128.1 (915.8) Debt 882.5 159.4 (723.1) Equity 1,161.4 968.6 (192.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices fell by 2% to US$ 83.6/bbl amidst concerns of muted demand. Market is also tracking price cap discussion of Russian oil (US$ 65-70/bbl) between G7 and EU diplomats.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-11-2022 25-11-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.3 83.6 (2.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,755.2 1,754.9 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,003.0 7,975.0 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,910.8 2,920.8 0.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,367.5 2,362.5 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
29 Nov 2022
Global equity indices broadly inched down as Fed officials (James Bullard and John Williams) hinted that higher rates are likely to prevail in CY23 and CY24 as well, to bring inflation to the targeted level. They also ruled out the possibility of an immediate pause in the hike cycle. Even ECB President also hinted that upside risks to inflation remain, and peak might not be way past. In China, State Council will hold a press briefing about the development in Covid-19 situation where some easing in restrictions is likely. In another development, China’s Securities Regulatory Commission announced five measures to support the real estate market. On the macro data front, retail sales data continued to falter both in UK and Japan, indicating weaker demand conditions.
Global stocks were roiled by unprecedented protests in China against the government’s strict Covid-19 policies. Hawkish comments from Fed officials James Bullard and John Williams also kept investors on edge. As a result, global stocks ended lower, with the exception of Indian stocks. Hang Seng fell the most by 1.6%, followed by S&P 500 which shed 1.5%. Bucking the global weakness, Sensex scaled a new high supported by gains in oil&gas and auto stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
25-11-2022 28-11-2022 % change Dow Jones 34,347 33,849 (1.4) S & P 500 4,026 3,964 (1.5) FTSE 7,487 7,474 (0.2) Nikkei 28,283 28,163 (0.4) Hang Seng 17,574 17,298 (1.6) Shanghai Comp 3,102 3,079 (0.7) Sensex 62,294 62,505 0.3 Nifty 18,513 18,563 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY rose by 0.7% tracking comments from Fed officials. CNY fell by 0.6% as China continued to grapple with a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and civil unrest. INR closed unchanged. It is trading stronger against the dollar today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
25-11-2022 28-11-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0395 1.0340 (0.5) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2092 1.1959 (1.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.19 138.95 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.68 81.67 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1650 7.2069 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except US (lower), global yields closed higher. Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 12bps as investors remained cautious ahead of the provisional Global closed mixed. Markets remained abreast tracking hawkish comments from few Fed officials, Covid-19 situation in China and benign retail sales print in UK and Japan. While 10Y yield in US, UK and Japan closed stable, in Germany and China it inched up. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps to 7.27%, tracking moderation in crude prices. It is trading higher at 7.29% today.Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
25-11-2022 28-11-2022 change in bps US 3.68 3.68 0 UK 3.12 3.13 0 Germany 1.97 1.99 2 Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.84 2.87 3 India 7.30 7.27 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
25-11-2022 28-11-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.39 6.37 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.69 6.69 0 Tbill-364 days 6.83 6.82 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.86 6.86 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.79 3.80 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 25-11-2022 28-11-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-11-2022 25-11-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 576.2 132.6 (443.6) Debt 58.4 45.0 (13.4) Equity 517.9 87.6 (430.3) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,043.9 1,128.1 (915.8) Debt 882.5 159.4 (723.1) Equity 1,161.4 968.6 (192.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices edged down by 0.5% (US$ 83.2) as demand concerns aggravated. Markets also await OPEC+ policy decision due later in the week.
Fig 7 – Commodities
25-11-2022 28-11-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.6 83.2 (0.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,754.9 1,741.4 (0.8) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,975.0 7,935.3 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,920.8 2,947.5 0.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,362.5 2,362.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
30 Nov 2022
Global macro indicators showed signs of stress. Industrial production in Japan (- 2.6% against est.: -1.8%) and South Korea (-3.5% against est.: -1%) declined on a sequential basis in Oct’22. Even in China, both manufacturing (48 against est.: 49) and non-manufacturing PMI (46.7 against est.: 48) came in lower than expected and remained in contraction. This clearly reflected the impact of Covid-19 related restrictions in the region. Elsewhere in Germany and Spain, flash CPI showed slight signs of moderation. However, in UK, the BRC shop prices data provided discomfort with regard to inflation. Markets are bracing for Fed Chair’s speech for cues on terminal rate and on the domestic front Q3 GDP data will be closely watched.
Global stocks ended mixed. Stocks in China and Hong Kong surged supported by expectations that the government may soon ease some Covid-19 restrictions. Hang Seng surged by 5.2%, followed by Shanghai Comp which surged 2.3%. US stocks ended mixed awaiting US jobs report and comments from Fed Chair. Sensex continued its bull run and rose by 0.3% to another historic high. Metal and consumer durable stocks rose the most. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
28-11-2022 29-11-2022 % change Dow Jones 33,849 33,853 0 S & P 500 3,964 3,958 (0.2) FTSE 7,474 7,512 0.5 Nikkei 28,163 28,028 (0.5) Hang Seng 17,298 18,205 5.2 Shanghai Comp 3,079 3,150 2.3 Sensex 62,505 62,682 0.3 Nifty 18,563 18,618 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY and CNY, other global currencies depreciated against the dollar. DXY was 0.1% higher ahead of Fed Chair’s speech scheduled later in the day. CNY edged up by 0.7% amidst hopes of some easing in the strict lockdown measures. INR depreciated by 0.1%. However it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
28-11-2022 29-11-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0340 1.0330 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.1959 1.1952 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.95 138.63 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.67 81.73 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2069 7.1593 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose by 6bps post hawkish comments from Fed officials (John Williams and James Bullard). Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 7bps as moderation in flash CPI data raised hopes of a softer rate cycle in the future. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps to 7.28% and is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
28-11-2022 29-11-2022 change in bps US 3.68 3.74 6 UK 3.13 3.10 (3) Germany 1.99 1.92 (7) Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.87 2.91 4 India 7.27 7.28 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
28-11-2022 29-11-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.37 6.39 2 Tbill-182 days 6.69 6.70 1 Tbill-364 days 6.82 6.84 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.86 6.87 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.80 3.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 28-11-2022 29-11-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.3) (0.6) (0.3) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
25-11-2022 28-11-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 132.6 348.1 215.5 Debt 45.0 28.2 (16.8) Equity 87.6 319.9 232.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,043.9 1,128.1 (915.8) Debt 882.5 159.4 (723.1) Equity 1,161.4 968.6 (192.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices edged down by 0.2% (US$ 83/bbl) awaiting the US crude stock inventory data.
Fig 7 – Commodities
28-11-2022 29-11-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.2 83.0 (0.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,741.4 1,749.9 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,935.3 8,036.0 1.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,947.5 2,949.5 0.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,362.5 2,379.5 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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1 Dec 2022
Key event has been Fed Chair’s speech which had a dovish bias. The speech hinted at smaller pace of rate hikes by US Fed going forward amidst hopes of soft landing for the economy and lagged impact of previous rate hikes. Thus, US 10Y yield fell by 14bps and DXY fell by 0.8%. As per reports, Fed funds futures are pricing in a terminal rate of 4.95% against 5.06% expected earlier. On macro front, US private payroll numbers indicated softening in the labour market. In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI reading was better than expected at 49.4, albeit remaining for the fourth consecutive month in contraction. Another notable development has been softer tone on Covid stance by one of China’s official. On domestic front, GDP growth for Q2 came in at 6.3% which is slightly lower than our forecast of 6.5%.
Barring Nikkei (lower), other global stocks rallied. Indication of slower pace of rate hikes by Fed Chair and easing Covid-19 curbs in some Chinese cities buoyed market sentiments. S&P 500 rose the most by 3.1%. On the other hand, Nikkei fell by 0.2%, weighed down by weakness in industrial production. Sensex rose by 0.7% to a fresh record-high, supported by gains in power and metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
29-11-2022
30-11-2022
% change
Dow Jones
33,853
34,590
2.2
S & P 500
3,958
4,080
3.1
FTSE
7,512
7,573
0.8
Nikkei
28,028
27,969
(0.2)
Hang Seng
18,205
18,597
2.2
Shanghai Comp
3,150
3,151
0.1
Sensex
62,682
63,100
0.7
Nifty
18,618
18,758
0.8
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies edged up following a decline in dollar. DXY fell by 0.8% as Fed Chair hinted at slowing down the pace of rate hikes from Dec’22. CNY rose by 0.9% as lockdown restrictions were eased in few Chinese cities. INR appreciated by 0.4% supported by positive global cues, even as oil prices inched up. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
29-11-2022
30-11-2022
% change
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.0330
1.0406
0.7
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.1952
1.2058
0.9
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
138.63
138.07
0.4
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
81.73
81.43
0.4
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.1593
7.0924
0.9
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell sharply by 14bps tracking Fed Chair’s dovish comments. UK’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps as BoE sold £ 346mn ($415 mn) of long-maturity and index-linked debt that it had bought under emergency action. India’s 10Y yield closed stable at 7.28% and is trading lower at 7.25% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
29-11-2022
30-11-2022
change in bps
US
3.74
3.61
(14)
UK
3.10
3.16
6
Germany
1.92
1.93
1
Japan
0.25
0.25
0
China
2.91
2.92
2
India
7.28
7.28
0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
29-11-2022
30-11-2022
change in bps
Tbill-91 days
6.39
6.37
(2)
Tbill-182 days
6.70
6.71
1
Tbill-364 days
6.84
6.84
0
G-Sec 2Y
6.87
6.86
(1)
SONIA int rate benchmark
2.93
2.93
0
US SOFR
3.80
3.81
1
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn
29-11-2022
30-11-2022
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
(0.6)
(1.2)
(0.6)
Reverse repo
0.5
0.5
0
Repo
0
0
0
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
28-11-2022
29-11-2022
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
348.1
164.2
(183.9)
Debt
28.2
7.6
(20.7)
Equity
319.9
156.6
(163.3)
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
2,043.9
1,128.1
(915.8)
Debt
882.5
159.4
(723.1)
Equity
1,161.4
968.6
(192.7)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude prices inched up by 2.9% amidst the sharpest drop in US crude stocks since CY19.
Fig 7 – Commodities
29-11-2022
30-11-2022
% change
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
83.0
85.4
2.9
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,749.9
1,768.5
1.1
Copper (US$/ MT)
8,036.0
8,226.8
2.4
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,949.5
3,050.3
3.4
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,379.5
2,477.5
4.1
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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2 Dec 2022
Macro data points globally showed elevated growth concerns. In the US, the ISM manufacturing data came in at 49, which is below expectation of 49.7. This was on account of slower growth in new orders and employment. In Germany, retail sales declined more than expected by 2.8% (est.: -0.5%). Even the flash manufacturing PMI was lower than expected at 46.2 (est.: 46.7) in Nov’22. Elsewhere, Asian stocks got comfort from China’s relaxation of Covid zero policies. Joining Fed President, Governor Michelle Bowman also hinted at slower pace of rate hike in the coming months, in her recent speech. On inflation front, PCE deflator in the US showed moderation (0.3% versus est.: 0.4% increase). In South Korea as well, CPI edged down by 0.1% against expectation of 0.1% increase in Nov’22.
Barring US and UK, stocks elsewhere edged up. US stocks declined as ISM manufacturing PMI marked its first contraction since May’20. Other global indices found comfort from hopes that global inflation might have peaked. Sensex rose for the 7th consecutive session and ended 0.3% higher. Real estate and metal stocks picked up the most. However it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks as investors await US jobs report.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
30-11-2022 1-12-2022 % change Dow Jones 34,590 34,395 (0.6) S & P 500 4,080 4,077 (0.1) FTSE 7,573 7,558 (0.2) Nikkei 27,969 28,226 0.9 Hang Seng 18,597 18,736 0.7 Shanghai Comp 3,151 3,165 0.4 Sensex 63,100 63,284 0.3 Nifty 18,758 18,813 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies posted gains against the dollar. DXY fell by 1.2% to its lowest since Jul’22 as US economic data reiterated the view that the pace of rate hikes will slow down going forward. EUR rose by 1.1% even as Germany’s retail sales fell more than expected. INR appreciated by 0.3% supported by FPI inflows. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
30-11-2022 1-12-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0406 1.0520 1.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2058 1.2247 1.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.07 135.33 2.0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.43 81.22 0.3 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0924 7.0534 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields broadly closed lower. Dovish speech by US Fed was rippled across all economies and demand for sovereign securities increased. Germany’s 10Y yield fell the most by 12bps followed by US (-10bps). India’s 10Y yield also fell by 7bps at 7.21%, tracking fall in global yields. It is trading further lower at 7.18% today, as expectation of softer pace of rate hike by RBI increased.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
30-11-2022 1-12-2022 change in bps US 3.61 3.50 (10) UK 3.16 3.10 (6) Germany 1.93 1.81 (12) Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.92 2.90 (2) India 7.28 7.21 (7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
30-11-2022 1-12-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.37 6.35 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.71 6.69 (2) Tbill-364 days 6.84 6.82 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.86 6.84 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 (0) US SOFR 3.81 3.82 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 30-11-2022 1-12-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.2) (1.7) (0.5) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
29-11-2022 30-11-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 164.2 1,132.5 968.4 Debt 7.6 40.2 32.7 Equity 156.6 1,092.3 935.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (268.8) 1,761.8 2,030.6 Debt (49.7) 1,849.0 1,898.6 Equity (219.1) (87.1) 132.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude prices rose by 1.7% to US$ 87/bbl supported by relaxed restrictions with regard to Covid zero policy of China which raised hopes of improved demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
30-11-2022 1-12-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.4 86.9 1.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,768.5 1,803.1 2.0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,226.8 8,311.5 1.0 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,050.3 3,090.3 1.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,477.5 2,485.0 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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