Economic Weekly Wrap
27 February 2023 - 03 March 2023
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27 Feb 2023
Slew of macro indicators in the US increased the probability of higher Fed rate in the near term. Core PCE deflator on MoM basis, rose by 0.6% in Jan’23 against est.: 0.4%. Adding to this, has been the upshot of personal spending by 1.8% on MoM basis against est.: 1.4% in Jan’23. University of Michigan inflation expectation also remained elevated. Even the new home sales data pointed to revival with 7.2% MoM increase against est.: 0.7% increase, in Feb’23. Money market is now pricing for a peak in Fed rate to happen at around 5.4% in Jul’23. Cleveland Fed President also pointed towards an above 5% Fed rate, in her recent speech. Thus global equity, currency and bond markets kept re-pricing their positions.
Except Japan, stock markets elsewhere declined as investors brace for even more rate hikes by global central banks. A hotter than expected US inflation report has increased the possibility of the Fed rate peaking around 5.4%. Hang Seng fell the most by 1.7% led by steep losses in technology stocks. Sensex declined by 0.2% dragged down by metal and auto stocks. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
23-02-2023 24-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,154 32,817 (1.0) S & P 500 4,012 3,970 (1.1) FTSE 7,908 7,879 (0.4) Nikkei 27,104 27,453 1.3 Hang Seng 20,351 20,010 (1.7) Shanghai Comp 3,287 3,267 (0.6) Sensex 59,606 59,464 (0.2) Nifty 17,511 17,466 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies broadly closed weaker. DXY rose by 0.6% as higher than expected increase in US core PCE have strengthened the case for more rate hikes. On the other hand, JPY fell sharply as Japan’s inflation continued to inch up, even as BoJ maintained its ultra-dovish stance. EUR also fell by 0.6% as Germany’s GDP growth declined more than expected in Q4CY22. INR is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
23-02-2023 24-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0596 1.0548 (0.5) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2013 1.1944 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.70 136.48 (1.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.74 82.75 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9081 6.9601 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (stable) and China (lower), other global yields closed higher. US and UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 7bps each. This was followed by buoyant macro data and tighter labour market conditions in the US. Even stickiness in Eurozone’s core CPI data (5.3%) raised probability of faster pace of rate hike by ECB. China’s 10Y yield closed a tad lower by 1bps supported by the dovish tone reflected in its monetary policy report. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps (7.42%), tracking auction results. It is trading higher at 7.45% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-02-2023 24-02-2023 change in bps US 3.88 3.94 7 UK 3.59 3.66 7 Germany 2.48 2.54 6 Japan 0.51 0.50 0 China 2.93 2.92 (1) India 7.39 7.42 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
23-02-2023 24-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.87 6.88 1 Tbill-182 days 7.16 7.16 0 Tbill-364 days 7.22 7.26 4 G-Sec 2Y 7.22 7.25 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 23-02-2023 24-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.3 0.2 (0.1) Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0 0.5 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
22-02-2023 23-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 78.4 (107.7) (186.1) Debt 85.9 13.0 (72.8) Equity (7.5) (120.7) (113.3) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 14 Feb 2023 and 15 Feb 2023
Global oil prices rose by 1.2%, buoyed by better demand conditions in the US
Fig 7 – Commodities
23-02-2023 24-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.2 83.2 1.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,822.3 1,811.0 (0.6) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,885.0 8,689.0 (2.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,059.8 2,988.3 (2.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,396.0 2,335.5 (2.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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28 Feb 2023
High frequency indicators in the US remained mixed. Pending home sales rose the most since Jun’20 by 8.1% on MoM basis, in Jan’23. Even core capital goods orders picked up by 0.8%. On the other hand, durable goods orders fell more than expected by 4.5% against est.: -4% decline. Market is looking for cues whether it is too early to interpret soft landing amidst tightening financial conditions. The mixed reaction is also reflected in equity, bonds and currency movement. Another development, has been the signing of new trade deal between UK and EU, for considering the trading status of Northern Ireland. In Japan, macro data remained mixed with industrial production declining by 4.6% on MoM basis (est.: -2.9% decline), while retail sales picked up by 1.9% (est.: +0.4%). On domestic front, 10Y yield closed at its 4-month high, on the back of tightening domestic liquidity conditions
Except US and UK, stock markets elsewhere declined. FTSE rose by 0.7% as UK struck a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU. US stocks rebounded after a sharp sell-off last week. Asian markets were mostly lower amidst concerns over more rate hikes by global central banks. Sensex declined by 0.3%, led by losses in metal stocks. However, it is trading higher today, following its Asian peers
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-02-2023 27-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,817 32,889 0.2 S & P 500 3,970 3,982 0.3 FTSE 7,879 7,935 0.7 Nikkei 27,453 27,424 (0.1) Hang Seng 20,010 19,944 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,267 3,258 (0.3) Sensex 59,464 59,288 (0.3) Nifty 17,466 17,393 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.5% as US durable goods orders fell sharply in Jan’23. GBP gained 1% amidst positive Brexit developments. EUR rose by 0.6% as Eurozone’s consumer confidence index improved. INR closed a tad bit weaker. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are mostly trading weaker
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-02-2023 27-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0548 1.0609 0.6 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.1944 1.2064 1.0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.48 136.19 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.75 82.85 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9601 6.9441 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 3bps as macro data remained mixed. On the other hand, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson spoke of elevated services inflation posing risks to the interest rate outlook. UK’s 10Y yield rose by 15bps as trade deal between UK and EU raised hopes of better growth prospects. India’s 10Y yield closed at its 4-month high of 7.44%, tracking evolving liquidity conditions. It is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-02-2023 27-02-2023 change in bps US 3.94 3.91 (3) UK 3.66 3.81 15 Germany 2.54 2.58 4 Japan 0.50 0.51 0 China 2.92 2.92 0 India 7.42 7.44 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-02-2023 27-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.88 6.87 (1) Tbill-182 days 7.16 7.22 6 Tbill-364 days 7.26 7.28 2 G-Sec 2Y 7.25 7.28 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 24-02-2023 27-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
23-02-2023 24-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (107.7) (202.5) (94.8) Debt 13.0 (39.0) (52.0) Equity (120.7) (163.5) (42.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 14 Feb 2023 and 15 Feb 2023
Global oil prices edged up by 1.3% to US$ 84.1/bbl, amidst stronger demand outlook.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-02-2023 27-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.2 82.5 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,811.0 1,817.1 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,689.0 8,783.0 1.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,988.3 3,016.0 0.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,335.5 2,363.0 1.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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01 Mar 2023
Global macro indicators remained mixed. While China’s official manufacturing PMI reading rose to its highest since Apr’12 to 52.6 in Feb’23 (est.: 50.6), for Japan it fell down to 47.7, the slowest pace in past 2.5 years. For US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 102.9 against est.: 108.5, dragged down by muted outlook for income and business conditions in the near term. In Australia, GDP rose less than expected by 0.5% (est.: 0.8%) in Q4CY22. Elsewhere in the Eurozone, inflation reading in France and Spain signalled elevated price pressure. On domestic front, GDP growth for Q3 has come in at 4.4%. The major disappointment is negative growth in manufacturing sector.
Except Nikkei and Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended lower. US stocks ended lower amidst an unexpected decline in US consumer confidence and a further slowdown in home prices. Nikkei rose by 0.1% supported by gains in technology stocks. Sensex declined by 0.6% led by losses in metal and oil and gas stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks, buoyed by positive PMI data from China.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
27-02-2023 28-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,889 32,657 (0.7) S & P 500 3,982 3,970 (0.3) FTSE 7,935 7,876 (0.7) Nikkei 27,424 27,446 0.1 Hang Seng 19,944 19,786 (0.8) Shanghai Comp 3,258 3,280 0.7 Sensex 59,288 58,962 (0.6) Nifty 17,393 17,304 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose by 0.2% despite a surprise fall in US consumer confidence index. EUR fell by 0.3% even as inflation in both France and Spain picked up more than expected in Feb’23. INR appreciated by 0.2%. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies
Fig 2 – Currencies
27-02-2023 28-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0609 1.0576 (0.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2064 1.2022 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.19 136.17 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.85 82.67 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.9441 6.9356 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (stable), global yields closed higher. Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 7bps ahead of its flash CPI reading, which is expected to increase by 0.5% in Feb’23, on MoM basis. Even some major economies of Eurozone posted hotter than expected inflation data, posing risks to ECB’s future rate outlook. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps to 7.46%, tracking rising oil prices. It is trading at 7.45% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
27-02-2023 28-02-2023 change in bps US 3.91 3.92 1 UK 3.81 3.83 2 Germany 2.58 2.65 7 Japan 0.51 0.51 0 China 2.92 2.92 0 India 7.45 7.46 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
27-02-2023 28-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.87 6.89 2 Tbill-182 days 7.22 7.22 0 Tbill-364 days 7.28 7.32 4 G-Sec 2Y 7.28 7.30 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 27-02-2023 28-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.3 (0.2) 0.5 Reverse repo 0 0.1 0.1 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-02-2023 27-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (202.5) (203.6) (1.1) Debt (39.0) (7.2) 31.8 Equity (163.5) (196.4) (32.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 14 Feb 2023 and 15 Feb 2023
Global oil prices rose by 1.7%, as optimism over China’s demand outlook offset rising US inventories
Fig 7 – Commodities
27-02-2023 28-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.5 83.9 1.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,817.1 1,826.9 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,783.0 8,951.0 1.9 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,016.0 3,030.5 0.5 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,363.0 2,373.0 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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02 Mar 2023
Fed officials (Atlanta and Minneapolis Fed President) again hinted at ‘continued rate hikes’ to control inflation. On macro front, ISM manufacturing data in the US inched up to 47.7 in Feb’23 from 47.4 in Jan’23, albeit remaining below expectation of 48 and also below the 50-mark. Inflationary risks reignited fears in the Eurozone with Germany’s harmonised CPI print rising more than expected by 1% on MoM basis (est.: 0.7%). On YoY basis, it has risen to 9.3%. Market is now pricing the ECB terminal rate in the region of about 4%. On domestic front, cut off yields of TBills have risen across all board in the range of 12-13bps. Even the 364-days cut off at 7.39% is nearing the 10Y Gsec yield, which shows that some degree of inversion in the yield curve might be forthcoming.
Global indices broadly closed higher. Asian stocks were uplifted after China’s official PMI staged a strong recovery. Hang Seng jumped by 4.2%, followed by a 1% increase in Shanghai Comp. Equities in US and UK showed only modest gains as manufacturing PMI whilst showing improvement, remained in contractionary zone. Sensex edged up by 0.8% supported by metal and tech stocks. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
28-02-2023 01-03-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,889 32,657 (0.7) S & P 500 3,982 3,970 (0.3) FTSE 7,935 7,876 (0.7) Nikkei 27,424 27,446 0.1 Hang Seng 19,944 19,786 (0.8) Shanghai Comp 3,258 3,280 0.7 Sensex 59,288 58,962 (0.6) Nifty 17,393 17,304 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (unchanged), other global currencies gained against the dollar. CNY gained the most by 1% supported by robust PMI data. EUR also gained 0.9% as Germany’s inflation rose more than anticipated bolstering case for more rate hikes by ECB. INR appreciated by 0.2% supported by gains in local equities. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
28-02-2023 01-03-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,657 32,662 0.0 S & P 500 3,970 3,951 (0.5) FTSE 7,876 7,915 0.5 Nikkei 27,446 27,517 0.3 Hang Seng 19,786 20,620 4.2 Shanghai Comp 3,280 3,312 1.0 Sensex 58,962 59,411 0.8 Nifty 17,304 17,451 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose the most by 7bps amidst reiteration by Fed officials of a higher policy rate to control inflation. Even Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps as higher than expected CPI data raised hopes of faster pace of rate hike by ECB. Japan and China’s 10Y yield closed stable, buoyed by policy support. India’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps to 7.42%, tracking slight moderation in OIS rates. It is trading higher at 7.44% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
28-02-2023 01-03-2023 change in bps US 3.92 3.99 7 UK 3.83 3.84 1 Germany 2.65 2.71 6 Japan 0.51 0.51 0 China 2.92 2.91 0 India 7.46 7.42 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
28-02-2023 01-03-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.89 6.94 5 Tbill-182 days 7.22 7.28 6 Tbill-364 days 7.32 7.37 5 G-Sec 2Y 7.30 7.32 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 - US SOFR 4.55 4.55 - Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 28-02-2023 01-03-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.2) (0.7) (0.5) Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
27-02-2023 28-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (203.6) (563.8) (360.2) Debt (7.2) (2.3) 4.9 Equity (196.4) (561.5) (365.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 14 Feb 2023 and 15 Feb 2023
Upbeat data from China pushed global commodity prices higher. While prices of metals rose sharply, oil prices noted a modest 0.5% increase.
Fig 7 – Commodities
28-02-2023 01-03-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.9 84.3 0.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,826.9 1,836.7 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,951.0 9,084.0 1.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,030.5 3,142.5 3.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,373.0 2,431.5 2.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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03 Mar 2023
Markets remained watchful of major macro prints globally. In China, services activity grew at the strongest pace in past 6 months with Caixin PMI reading rising to 55 in Feb’23 from 52.9 seen in Jan’23. In Japan as well, services PMI rose at the fastest pace in past 8 months to 54 from 52.3 in Jan’23. Inflation of the region provided comfort coming in line with expectation at 3.3% in Feb’23 against 4.3% in Jan’23. Elsewhere in the Eurozone, harmonised CPI rose by 8.9% on YoY basis against expectation of 8.2% in Feb’23. This raised hopes of a faster pace of rate hike by ECB. Fed officials continued to emphasise higher interest rate to control inflation. While Governor Waller spoke of a terminal rate between 5.1-5.4%, Atlanta Fed President spoke of 25bps rate hike in Mar’23. In another development, US 2Y paper rose to its highest levels since Jul’07, tracking tighter labour market data.
Global indices closed mixed. While stocks in US and UK ended higher, Asian stocks dipped. Fears of higher global rates weighed on Asian markets. On the other hand, US stocks edged up as Atlanta Fed President batted for “slow and steady” rate hikes. In India, Sensex fell by 0.8% as technology and banking stocks dipped. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
01-03-2023 02-03-2023 % change Dow Jones 32,662 33,004 1.0 S & P 500 3,951 3,981 0.8 FTSE 7,915 7,944 0.4 Nikkei 27,517 27,499 (0.1) Hang Seng 20,620 20,429 (0.9) Shanghai Comp 3,312 3,311 (0.1) Sensex 59,411 58,909 (0.8) Nifty 17,451 17,322 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.5% as a resilient labour market (falling US jobless claims) reinforced views of higher Fed rates. GBP fell by 0.7% after comments from BoE Governor. EUR too dropped by 0.7% even as Eurozone inflation inched up. INR depreciated by 0.1% amidst higher oil prices. However it is trading stronger today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
01-03-2023 02-03-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0668 1.0597 (0.7) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2029 1.1946 (0.7) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 136.19 136.77 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.51 82.59 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8698 6.9168 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (stable), global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose the most by 6bps monitoring tighter labour market data and also comments from Fed officials which hinted at more rate hikes. UK and Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps each tracking comments from Governor Bailey and also keeping an eye on Eurozone inflation data, which posed upside risks to rate outlook. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (7.42%). It is trading at 7.41% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
01-03-2023 02-03-2023 change in bps US 3.99 4.06 6 UK 3.84 3.88 4 Germany 2.71 2.75 4 Japan 0.51 0.51 0 China 2.91 2.93 1 India 7.39 7.42 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
01-03-2023 02-03-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.94 6.91 (3) Tbill-182 days 7.28 7.27 (1) Tbill-364 days 7.37 7.36 (1) G-Sec 2Y 7.32 7.32 (0) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 - US SOFR 4.55 4.55 - Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 01-03-2023 02-03-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.7) (0.8) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.1 0.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
28-02-2023 01-03-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (563.8) 117.2 681.0 Debt (2.3) 15.3 17.6 Equity (561.5) 101.9 663.4 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 14 Feb 2023 and 15 Feb 2023
Global oil prices rose further by 0.5% amidst hopes of a fast economic recovery in China which boosted the demand outlook.
Fig 7 – Commodities
01-03-2023 02-03-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.3 84.8 0.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,836.7 1,835.9 (0.0) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,084.0 8,928.1 (1.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,142.5 3,067.0 (2.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,431.5 2,399.5 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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