Economic Weekly Wrap
26th - 30th September 2022

Global market rout deepened further as investors assessed the increased likelihood of a recession. While global stocks and commodity prices slid, currencies fell to fresh multi-year lows. Flash PMI’s of major economies (Eurozone, UK and Japan) showed continued weakness. In UK, economic conditions worsened significantly as GfK’s consumer confidence index slipped to a record-low. UK government announced a slew of tax cuts to bolster consumer spending, raising concerns over elevated government borrowing and inflation. However, both manufacturing (51.8 versus 51.5 in Aug’22) and services (49.2 versus 43.7) PMI in the US showed improvement. In India, RBI decision will be key watchable and we now expect a 50 bps rate hike

Global stocks ended lower amidst concerns over muted growth and overheated inflation. Recent fiscal stimulus by UK with regard to tax cut further fuelled inflation woes. FTSE fell the most by 2%, followed by US stocks. Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta official also hinted at ‘relatively orderly’ slowdown of the economy in the wake of aggressive policy to tame inflation. Sensex also fell by 1.7%, led by a slide in power and real estate stocks. It is trading further lower today, while Asian markets are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies continued to slide against the dollar. DXY rose by 1.7% (largest single day gain since Jun’16) amidst rising fears of a global recession. GBP plunged sharply by 3.6% to a 37-year low amidst rising economic woes. EUR too slipped to a 20-year low. INR depreciated to a new record-low of 80.99/$. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except Japan (stable) and US (lower), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield shot up the most by 33bps on account of its expansionary fiscal policy, which might aggravate inflationary pressure. US 10Y yield fell by 3bps as flash PMI print was better than expected. India’s 10Y yield rose by 8bps (7.39%), as aggressive policy rate hike by major global central banks upped expectation of faster pace of rate hike by RBI. It is trading at 7.38% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Global commodity prices moderated amidst concerns of muted demand. Crude oil prices fell by 4.8% to a near 9-month low of US$ 86.2/bbl.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Volatility in the global markets continued as investors braced for further rate hikes. Business sentiment index in Germany fell sharply, reinforcing expectations that the economy is likely to slip into a recession. Led by concerns over UK government’s latest fiscal measures, GBP fell to a record-low, and UK’s 10Y yield shot up. CNY slipped further to a 14-year low, even as PBOC announced a hike in the forex risk reserve ratio to arrest the currency’s fall. Falling industrial profits in China raised fresh concerns over growth. Indian market too joined the global sell off with stocks at a near 2-month low and INR at a record low. 10Y bond yield however found support from a drop in oil prices.

Except FTSE (flat), other global stocks ended lower. Concerns remain over growth, as OECD slashed global GDP forecast to 2.2% in CY23 versus 2.8% estimated earlier. Nikkei dropped the most, followed by US stocks. Sensex also fell by 1.6%, led by a decline in metal and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while Asian markets are trading mixed, monitoring China’s industrial profits data which remained muted

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies depreciated further. GBP fell by 1.6% to a record low led by concerns over the government’s new fiscal measures. EUR too slipped by 0.8% to a 20-year low as Ifo’s business climate index for Germany fell to a ~2-year low. DXY rose by 0.8% to a 20-year high. INR hit a new historic low of 81.63/$. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except India (lower), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield shot up by 42bps as an expansionary fiscal policy and depreciating GBP raised expectations of aggressive policy response from BoE. US 10Y yield also rose by 24bps amidst hopes of faster pace of rate hikes by Fed. The spread between 2Y and 30Y paper widened to its sharpest since CY00. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps (7.36%), supported by falling oil prices. It is trading lower at 7.34% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude oil prices fell further by 2.4% to a 9-month low of US$ 84/bbl, weighed down by a stronger dollar and demand concerns.

Fig 7 – Commodities

A slew of Fed officials reiterated the hawkish commentary of the central bank, with the Chicago Fed President stating that interest rates are likely to increase to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Growth concerns abated after better than expected macro data (i.e. US consumer confidence and durable goods order). Hence, US treasury yields rose to a 12-year high (little shy of the 4% mark), while stocks tumbled to a 2-year low. Bond market rout in the UK continued, with investors awaiting BoE’s policy response. In India, liquidity once again swinged into the deficit zone.

Global stocks ended mixed. Investors remained cautious tracking hawkish comments from Fed officials, better than expected Conference Board consumer confidence print, new home sales data and core capital goods orders data in the US. Stocks in China rose the most, supported by consumer and healthcare segment. Sensex fell by 0.1% dragged down by banking and capital goods stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian markets.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY ended flat despite stronger than expected data (consumer confidence and durable goods order). GBP recovered from a record low and rose by 0.4% supported by comments from BoE Chief Economist. However, EUR fell by 0.2% led by concerns over gas supplies. CNY fell to a 3-year low amidst mounting economic woes. INR appreciated by 0.1%. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed mixed. Sell-off in the UK market continued with its 10Y yield rising by 24bps. Comments from BoE’s Chief Economist suggest ‘significant policy response’ is forthcoming in response to the expansionary fiscal policy. US 10Y yield rose by 2bps and is nearing the 4% mark last seen during CY07. India’s 10Y yield fell by 7bps (7.29%), tracking a fall in OIS rates. It is trading higher at 7.33% today as India’s inclusion in global bond index might be delayed due to procedural issues.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Global oil prices rose by 2.6% amidst supply concerns due to Hurricane in Gulf of Mexico. Expectations of an output cut from OPEC+ also supported prices.

Fig 7 – Commodities

BOE intervened to arrest the financial volatility in the market by announcing “purchases of long dated gilts in a temporary and targeted way” for the next 2 weeks. Under this programme, BoE bought ~ £ 1.02bn worth of government bonds yesterday. This drove global yields lower, and pushed GBP higher. Growth concerns and expectations of further rate hikes from Fed, drove CNY to its lowest since the Asian Financial Crisis. INR too weakened to a fresh record-low.

Global stocks ended mixed. Investors remained cautious driven by an interplay of lot of factors-BoE’s unexpected announcement of temporary bond purchase for the next two weeks, continuing economic woes in China and the puzzling growth-inflation dynamics worldwide. US and European stocks rose, while Asian stocks declined. Sensex also fell by 0.9% dragged down by banking and power stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian markets.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR and CNY (lower), other global currencies gained. EUR and GBP rose sharply against the dollar, rising by 1.5% each. Investors assessed the impact of BoE’s bond buying programme. DXY fell by 1.3%. CNY weakened to a more than 14-year low amidst widening yield differential with the US. INR too depreciated by 0.3% to a new record low. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading weaker.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except India and China (higher), global yields closed lower. This was on account of BoE’s decision to purchase bonds worth US$ 71bn over the next 2 weeks. UK’s 10Y yield fell the most by 49bps followed by US (21bps). India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps (7.33%), ahead of RBI’s policy decision where a faster pace of rate hike is expected (our expectation: 50bps hike). It is trading at 7.30% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

In the 210bn Tbill auction, cut off yields continued to soar (91-days: +30bps, 182-days: +21bps and 364-days: +15bps).

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Global crude prices edged up by 3.5% as data showed a larger than expected drawdown in US inventories. Prices were also supported by a weaker dollar.

Fig 7 – Commodities

US jobless claims fell to a 5-month low, signalling strength in the labour market. In the Eurozone, economic sentiment index declined sharply in Sep’22 amidst an increase in inflation expectations. Data showed that inflation in Germany climbed up further to 10.9%. BoE bought another ~£ 1.4bn gilts. Retail sales and industrial production in Japan showed further improvement. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in Sep’22 from 49.4, while service PMI moderated to 50.6 from 52.6. In India, CAD widened to 2.8% of GDP. On the positive side, government’s H2FY23 borrowing calendar was unchanged which should provide some comfort to yields. Investors keenly await RBI’s monetary policy decision due shortly.

Global stocks broadly ended lower. Investors remained concerned over growth and inflation dynamics worldwide. Inflation in Germany remained overheated, economic sentiment in the Eurozone was benign and economic woes in China continued. Fed official (James Bullard) also spoke of considerable financial tightening. US stocks fell the most, followed by UK. Sensex also fell by 0.3% dragged down by power stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian markets, tracking China’s muted macro data.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except JPY (lower), other global currencies gained. GBP rose sharply by 2.1% as BoE bought gilts for the second consecutive day, as planned. EUR also rose despite a sharp fall in Eurozone’s economic sentiment index. CNY gained 1.1% amidst expectations of intervention by PBOC. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading further stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading weaker.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except India (flat), global yields closed higher. Sell-off in the UK market continued as its 10Y yield rose by 13bps amidst continued economic woes in the region. Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps as traders are now pricing in a 75bps rate hike by ECB in the upcoming policy. India’s 10Y yield closed flat. It is trading higher at 7.36% today, ahead of the RBI’s policy decision.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Global crude prices fell by 0.9% amidst muted economic outlook. However, expectations of output cut by OPEC+ limited losses.

Fig 7 – Commodities