Economics Weekly
Wrap 25th - 29th July 2022

Global investors looked for cues as concerns over global economic downturn kept market on the edge. Eurozone business activity shrank with composite PMI dropping to 46.1 in Jul’22 (lowest since May’20). On the other hand, ECB raised rates much higher than anticipated for the first time in over 11 years, with inflation concerns trumping growth objective. Russia’s Central Bank in a surprise move slashed policy rates. Markets will be watchful of the key decisions by Fed and Q2CY22 US GDP print scheduled later this week. On the domestic front, ADB slashed India’s growth forecast to 7.2% for FY23 from 7.5%, citing higher than expected inflation and monetary tightening.

Global indices ended mixed as investors closely monitored rate decisions by ECB, Russia’s Central Bank and subdued flash PMIs for Eurozone. S&P 500 declined by 0.9% led by disappointing corporate earnings report. Amongst other indices, Sensex (0.7%) rose the most led by gains in banking and real estate stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except GBP (flat) and EUR (lower), other global currencies ended higher. DXY fell by 0.2% as amidst weak macro prints (PMIs, initial jobless claims). Euro slipped as ECB hiked rates more than anticipated and PMIs indicated slowing economic activity. INR rose by 0.1% to close at 79.85/US$. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring China (higher), other global yields closed lower. 10Y yields of Germany (19bps), US (12bps) and UK (11bps) fell the most. Weaker than expected manufacturing and services PMI prints for major economies like Germany, France, overall Eurozone and US impacted investor sentiment. ECB rate hike added to woes. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps to 7.42%, as oil prices eased.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices moderated by 0.6% to US$ 103/bbl on expectations of rate hike by Fed, raising the possibility of lower fuel demand. Gold prices inched up by 0.5% supported by a pullback in US treasury yields.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Investors braced for an aggressive rate hike by Fed as they anticipate atleast 50- 75bps hike inorder to keep soaring inflation in check. Oil prices climbed up, led by supply side fears. Treasury yields edged upwards. On the currency front, Dollar index lost its strength as it slipped for the 3rd day in a row. Concerns of slowdown in US economy aggravated with unemployment benefits rising for the 3rd-straight week and US treasury secretary Janet Yellen acknowledging that the downturn is inevitable. Germany’s IFO business climate dropped to its lowest level in more than 2-years adding to concerns of global economic slowdown.

Global indices started the week on mixed note as investors turned their focus towards upcoming Fed’s decision. Additionally, corporate earnings report from consumer durable and banking industry along with subdued data print from Germany (IFO climate index slipped to 88.6-lowest in more than 2-years) kept the investors on the edge. Nikkei (0.8%) dropped the most amongst other indices. Sensex (0.5%) too ended in red and was dragged down by losses in auto and oil and gas stocks. It is trading further lower today; while other Asian stocks are trading higher.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except CNY (flat) and JPY (lower), other global currencies ended higher. DXY fell further by 0.2% as investors assess the possible impact of aggressive rate hike by Fed on US and global economy. GBP gained the most by 0.4% as Confederation of British industry survey indicated that challenges around inflation and investment might be easing. INR rose by 0.1%. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed mixed. 10Y yield in the US rose by 5bps, while in UK it closed flat and in case of Germany it ended 1bps lower. Investors await Fed’s policy decision (due tomorrow) and slew of corporate earnings reports. India’s 10Y yield fell by another 3bps to 7.39%, tracking global cues

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices spiked by 1.9% to US$ 105/bbl amidst a weaker US$ and concerns of lower Russian oil supply. Gold prices weakened by 0.5% led by uptick in US treasury yields.

Fig 7 – Commodities

IMF in the World Economic Outlook has downgraded global growth forecast by 40bps to 3.2% in CY22, stating the “outlook has darkened significantly since Apr’22”. This is led by stalling of growth in US, China and Euro Area in the aftermath of Russia- Ukraine war, aggressive interest rate hike by Fed to tame inflation and strict Covid-19 induced lockdowns in China. These risks are further tilted to the downside. In line with global growth, IMF has also trimmed India’s growth by 80bps to 7.4% in FY23 (previous forecast of 8.2%). It is tad higher than RBI estimate of 7.2% for FY23. The report noted the dip in India’s growth estimate is reflected by “less favourable external conditions and rapid policy tightening”.

Global indices ended mixed. IMF slashed global growth outlook to 3.2% for CY22 from 3.6% estimated in Apr’22.US indices ended lower led by weaker data print (fall in consumer confidence, new homes sales down to 2-year low in Jun’22). Sensex (0.5%) too slipped lower led by losses in technology and capital goods stocks. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed lower. DXY rose by 0.7% as investors await Fed’s rate hike decision, amidst slowing economic growth. EUR (1%), JPY and CNY (0.2% each) fell the most. Possibility of sharp economic slowdown in Europe as EU countries begin gas rationing also impacted investor sentiments. INR fell by 0.1%. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring US and Japan (higher), other global yields closed lower. 10Y yields in Germany (9bps) and UK (2bps) fell the most. Investors’ sentiments were hit as EU countries approved energy plan to curb gas usage in the wake of Russia reducing gas supply to Europe. US10Y yield rose by 1bps, awaiting Fed’s decision. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps to 7.37%, with easing inflationary concerns owing to dip in international commodity prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices moderated by 0.7% to US$ 104/bbl amidst demand concerns offsetting US crude stock drawdown. Gold prices dropped marginally by 0.1% with investors bracing for Fed policy outcome.

Fig 7 – Commodities

In a move, that will reflect fastest tightening of monetary policy since the previous Fed Chair, Paul Volcker in 1980s, FOMC in Jul’22 unanimously hiked policy rates for 2nd time in a row by 75bps. There wasn’t a clear guidance on future hike. However, Fed Chair noted an ‘unusual increase could be appropriate in next meeting’ though it will be more data dependent. He also stated U.S economy is in not in recession, though there are signs of slowdown. DXY slipped, equity indices largely edged up.

Barring Nikkei and Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended higher. Investors’ concerns eased about the pace of future rate hike based on Fed’s chair commentary. Amongst other indices, S&P 500 (2.6%) rose the most as it climbed to a 6-week high amidst strong corporate earnings report. Markets will await Q2CY22 GDP print and consumer confidence scheduled later this week. Sensex (1.0%) too ended in green led by gains in capital goods and technology stocks. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR (lower), other global currencies closed higher. DXY fell by 0.7% as Fed acknowledged that are emerging signs of slowing economic growth and that next rate hike decision will be data dependent. GBP (1.1%) and EUR (0.8%) gained the most. INR fell by 0.2%, as oil prices inch up. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring UK, Germany (higher) and China (flat), other global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield fell by 2bps as US Fed indicated that next rate hike decision in Sep’22 will be data driven, thus leaving scope for a less hawkish stance. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps to 7.34%.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Short-term rates registered sharp jump in RBI’s latest T-bill auction, as RBI is expected to hike rates again in its Aug’22 meeting. Cut-off yield for 91-day paper rose by 22bps and for 182-day it was up by 13bps.

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices spiked by 2.1% to US$ 106/bbl on the back of lower crude inventories and higher demand from U.S. Gold prices also inched up by 1%.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Fed Chair’s commentary and subdued Q2CY22 GDP print of the US reaffirmed investors view that aggressive monetary tightening cycle will ease off going forward. Subdued data print (US GDP, jobless claims and corporate earnings) pulled global yields lower. Tracking the dip, US$ declined and moved closer to the 6-week low mark. Oil prices continued to edge higher over supply concerns and focus shifted towards the next OPEC meeting scheduled next week

Barring FTSE (flat) and Hang Seng (lower), other global indices ended higher. Expected rate hike by Fed along with speculation of slower pace of future rate hike cheered investors. Amongst other indices, Sensex rallied to a 3-month high rubbing off the upbeat mood from the global market, along with slower pace of selling by FIIs in the current month. IT, real estate and banking stocks gained the most. It is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except EUR (flat), other global currencies appreciated. DXY fell by 0.1% to hover near 6-week low, as risks to Fed’s aggressive policy rate hike eased. JPY (1.7%) gained the most, followed by GBP, INR and CNY (0.2% each). INR rose to 79.76/$. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring Japan, other global yields closed lower. 10Y yields in Germany (12bps), US (11bps) and UK (9bps) fell the most. Weaker than expected US GDP print (- 0.9% in Q2 versus est.: +0.5%) and rising jobless claims increased fears of a global growth slowdown. Fed is also expected to be less hawkish now. India’s 10Y yield fell only a tad by 1bps, as oil prices maintain pressure. However, following global cues, it is trading lower today at 7.28%.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022

Crude prices inched up by 0.5% to US$ 107/bbl on the back of supply concerns. The next OPEC meet (Aug’22) will be crucial in terms of determining future oil output. Gold prices also inched up by 1.2% as DXY weakened.

Fig 7 – Commodities