Weekly Wrap
23rd - 27th May, 2022
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23 May 2022
Inflation concerns yet again aggravated with Germany’s PPI soaring to yet another record high of 33.5% in Apr’22, on YoY basis. ECB official signalled that first rate hike may be forthcoming in Jul’22. On domestic front, government has reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 8/lt and Rs 6/lt respectively and said that it will cost the exchequer Rs 1tn. Apart this this, it has also increased fertiliser subsidy by Rs 1.1tn (now at a record high of Rs 2.15tn in FY23, taking the previous budgetary allocation of Rs 1.05tn). Further import duty on coal has been reduced to 0% from existing 2.5%.
Except US stocks (flat), global equity indices ended higher. Hang Seng rose the most by 3%, led by technology stocks. Even Shanghai Comp rose by 1.6%, on account of easing Covid-19 restrictions. Investors are also monitoring signals from global central banks on rates. Sensex rose by 2.9%, led by gains in real estate, metal and capital goods stocks. It is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-05-2022 20-05-2022 % change Dow Jones 31,253 31,262 0 S & P 500 3,901 3,901 0 FTSE 7,303 7,390 1.2 Nikkei 26,403 26,739 1.3 Hang Seng 20,121 20,717 3.0 Shanghai Comp 3,097 3,147 1.6 Sensex 52,792 54,326 2.9 Nifty 15,809 16,266 2.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY rose by 0.4% even as US 10Y yield continued to edge EUR fell by 0.2% as Germany’s PPI inflation surged to a new record-high in Apr’22. GBP gained by 0.1% supported by better than expected retail sales growth in UK. CNY too rose by 0.3% amidst reports of easing lockdown restrictions in Shanghai. After depreciating to a fresh record low, INR appreciated by 0.2%. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-05-2022 20-05-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0588 1.0564 (0.2) GBP/USD 1.2467 1.2480 0.1 USD/JPY 127.79 127.88 (0.1) USD/INR 77.73 77.55 0.2 USD/CNY 6.7125 6.6930 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. Inflationary concerns remained elevated with G7 finance ministers flagging risks emanating from supply chain bottlenecks due to Russia-Ukraine Growth concerns led US 10Y yield fell by 6bps. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps (7.36%) as minutes of RBI’s off cycle meeting highlighted faster pace of rate hikes in FY23. It is trading at 7.37% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-05-2022 20-05-2022 change in bps US 2.84 2.78 (6) UK 1.87 1.89 3 Germany 0.95 0.94 (1) Japan 0.24 0.24 0 China 2.81 2.82 1 India 7.32 7.36 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-05-2022 20-05-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 4.9 4.9 1 Tbill-182 days 5.4 5.4 1 Tbill-364 days 5.9 5.9 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.3 6.4 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.8 0.8 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 19-05-2022 20-05-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (4.8) (3.2) 1.6 Reverse repo 3.7 0.3 (3.4) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-05-2022 19-05-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (108.0) (473.0) (365.0) Debt 8.1 21.6 13.5 Equity (116.1) (494.6) (378.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,168.2 1,396.1 227.9 Debt 2.1 8.5 6.4 Equity 1,166.1 1,387.6 221.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices rose by 0.5% to US$ 113/bbl. While supply conditions remain tight, easing of lockdown restrictions in China is expected to spur demand for Gold prices too rose by 0.3%.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-05-2022 20-05-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 112.0 112.6 0.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,841.9 1,846.5 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,460.5 9,451.0 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,732.6 3,726.0 (0.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,906.5 2,946.0 1.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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24 May 2022
US 10Y yield rose sharply by 7bps amidst comments from Kansas Fed President of federal fund rate might rising to 2% in Aug’22, contingent on the inflation trajectory. In China, stimulus measures have been announced which includes 140bn yuan additional tax cut and 300bn yuan in railway construction bonds. Investors are also weighing in possible tariff cut on Chinese goods by US President. Today, manufacturing PMI print of major economies will be released which will provide fresh cues. On domestic front, RBI’s Governor hinted at faster pace of rate hike.
Global equities ended mixed. US stocks rose sharply as US President suggested removing imports tariffs on some Chinese imports. Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose by 2% and 1.9% respectively. FTSE rose by 1.7% led by gains in banking and insurance stocks. Nikkei too rose by 1%. On the other hand, Sensex fell by 0.1%. Metal stocks fell sharply by 8.3% as the government imposed export duty on certain iron and steel products. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-05-2022 23-05-2022 % change Dow Jones 31,262 31,880 2.0 S & P 500 3,901 3,974 1.9 FTSE 7,390 7,513 1.7 Nikkei 26,739 27,002 1.0 Hang Seng 20,717 20,470 (1.2) Shanghai Comp 3,147 3,147 0 Sensex 54,326 54,289 (0.1) Nifty 16,266 16,215 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY and INR (flat), other global currencies ended DXY fell by 1% despite a sharp surge is US 10Y yield. EUR rose the most by 1.2% amidst expectations of rate hike by ECB. GBP too gained by 0.9%. CNY surged by 0.7% as China mulls lifting lockdown restrictions. INR closed flat. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-05-2022 20-05-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0564 1.0691 1.2 GBP/USD 1.2480 1.2588 0.9 USD/JPY 127.88 127.90 0) USD/INR 77.55 77.52 0 USD/CNY 6.6930 6.6497 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose by 7bps as Kansas Fed President spoke of interest rate to rise to 2% by Aug’22. Even Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 7bps supported by better IFO business sentiment data and expectation of a rate hike by ECB in Jul’22. China’s 10Y yield on the other hand, fell by 2bps, supported by stimulus measures. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps (7.39%) as RBI’s Governor indicated more rate hikes may be forthcoming. It is trading at 7.37% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-05-2022 23-05-2022 change in bps US 2.78 2.85 7 UK 1.89 1.97 8 Germany 0.94 1.02 7 Japan 0.24 0.24 0 China 2.82 2.80 (2) India 7.36 7.39 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-05-2022 23-05-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 4.9 4.9 (3) Tbill-182 days 5.4 5.4 (4) Tbill-364 days 5.9 5.8 (9) G-Sec 2Y 6.4 6.3 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.8 0.8 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 22-05-2022 23-05-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.6) (3.4) 0.2 Reverse repo 3.1 3.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-05-2022 20-05-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (473.0) 198.8 671.7 Debt 21.6 11.1 (10.5) Equity (494.6) 187.6 682.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,168.2 1,396.1 227.9 Debt 2.1 8.5 6.4 Equity 1,166.1 1,387.6 221.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International commodity prices edged upwards. Crude prices rose by 0.8% to US$ 113.4/bbl, amidst demand optimism as China looks at lifting lockdown Gold prices edged up amidst a retreat is US dollar.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-05-2022 23-05-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 112.6 113.4 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,846.5 1,853.6 0.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,451.0 9,588.5 1.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,726.0 3,800.5 2.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,946.0 2,956.0 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 May 2022
PMI print worldwide aggravated concerns of muted growth. In the UK, the flash composite PMI print fell to its 15-month low in May’22. In the US, it was at its 4- month low. Even the new home sales data (US) in Apr’22 fell more than expected. The Richmond Fed’s measure of business activity also dropped to its two-year low in May’22. As a result, equity and bond indices closed lower. Elsewhere, ECB President said policy rate might be in positive territory by Q3CY22. India’s 10Y yield got comfort from government measures aimed at easing supply side bottlenecks.
Except Dow Jones (higher), other global indices ended lower. Weak PMI readings in US, UK and Eurozone raised concerns over global growth outlook. Further, new Covid-19 curbs in Beijing also dented investor sentiments. Shanghai Comp fell the most by 2.4%, followed by Hang Seng which declined by 1.7%. Sensex fell by 0.4% led by losses in technology, power and metal stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
23-05-2022 24-05-2022 % change Dow Jones 31,880 31,929 0.2 S & P 500 3,974 3,941 (0.8) FTSE 7,513 7,484 (0.4) Nikkei 27,002 26,748 (0.9) Hang Seng 20,470 20,112 (1.7) Shanghai Comp 3,147 3,071 (2.4) Sensex 54,289 54,053 (0.4) Nifty 16,215 16,125 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR and JPY (flat), other global currencies ended lower. DXY fell by 2% amidst weak macro data (manufacturing and services PMI and new home sales). GBP also fell by 0.4% as UK’s manufacturing and services PMI dipped to its 16 and 15-month low respectively. EUR rose by 0.4% amidst hawkish comments from ECB President. INR depreciated by 0.1%. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
23-05-2022 24-05-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0691 1.0736 0.4 GBP/USD 1.2588 1.2532 (0.4) USD/JPY 127.90 126.83 0.8 USD/INR 77.52 77.59 (0.1) USD/CNY 6.6497 6.6537 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (stable), global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield fell the most by 10bps as macro prints remained weaker (flash PMI data and new home sales). Even Fed Bank of Atlanta President urged to proceed with cautiousness regarding rate hike. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps (7.36%) amidst expectation that government measures would ease inflation slightly. It is trading further lower at 7.33% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-05-2022 24-05-2022 change in bps US 2.85 2.75 (10) UK 1.97 1.89 (8) Germany 1.02 0.97 (5) Japan 0.24 0.24 0 China 2.80 2.80 0 India 7.39 7.36 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-05-2022 23-05-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 4.9 4.9 0 Tbill-182 days 5.4 5.4 1 Tbill-364 days 5.8 5.9 8 G-Sec 2Y 6.3 6.3 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.8 0.8 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 23-05-2022 24-05-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.4) (3.3) 0.1 Reverse repo 3.1 3.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-05-2022 20-05-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 198.8 (189.5) (388.2) Debt 11.1 (23.9) (35.0) Equity 187.6 (165.6) (353.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,168.2 1,396.1 227.9 Debt 2.1 8.5 6.4 Equity 1,166.1 1,387.6 221.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International oil prices rose by 0.1% to US$ 113.6/bbl, as Germany’s economy minister hinted that EU is likely to reach a deal on banning Russian oil imports “within days”. Gold prices edged up as dollar
Fig 7 – Commodities
23-05-2022 24-05-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 113.4 113.6 0.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,853.6 1,866.5 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,588.5 9,459.0 (1.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,800.5 3,798.8 (0.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,956.0 2,901.5 (1.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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26 May 2022
Fed minutes highlighted that 50bps increase in policy rate might be appropriate in the next few meetings. It highlighted that policy may have to move past a “neutral” stance. Elsewhere, indicators of growth remained weak. In Germany GfK consumer sentiment index remained benign. In the US, durable goods orders as well as capital goods orders non-defence excl. air (measure of business fixed investment) fell more than expected. Even Premier LI Keqiang said China’s economy is in some respect faring worse than CY20.
Except Japan and India, other global stocks ended higher. US stocks rose as Fed minutes showed that members remained optimistic on growth. S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. FTSE too rose by 0.5% led by gains in mining and oil and gas stocks. Sensex fell by 0.6% weighed down by losses in real estate, technology and capital goods stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-05-2022 25-05-2022 % change Dow Jones 31,929 32,120 0.6 S & P 500 3,941 3,979 0.9 FTSE 7,484 7,523 0.5 Nikkei 26,748 26,678 (0.3) Hang Seng 20,112 20,171 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,071 3,107 1.2 Sensex 54,053 53,749 (0.6) Nifty 16,125 16,026 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP and INR (higher), other global currencies ended lower. DXY rose by 2% as Fed minutes confirmed two successive rate hikes of 50bps each in Fed’s Jun and Jul’22 meeting. EUR fell by 0.5%. CNY depreciated by 0.6% as China tightened Covid-19 curbs in Beijing. INR is trading slightly higher today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-05-2022 25-05-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0736 1.0681 (0.5) GBP/USD 1.2532 1.2574 0.3 USD/JPY 126.83 127.32 (0.4) USD/INR 77.59 77.53 0.1 USD/CNY 6.6537 6.6932 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except UK (higher), global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps as durable goods orders moderated by 0.4% in Apr’22 (est.: 0.6%). However, Fed minutes highlighted faster pace of rate hike in Germany’s 10Y yield also fell by 2bps as ECB board member warned of a cautious approach regarding pace of rate hike. India’s 10Y yield fell by 6bps (7.3%) supported by government measures to curb inflation. It is trading at the same level today.Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-05-2022 25-05-2022 change in bps US 2.75 2.75 (1) UK 1.89 1.91 2 Germany 0.97 0.95 (2) Japan 0.24 0.21 (2) China 2.80 2.77 (3) India 7.36 7.30 (6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Tbill auction results of Rs 330bn showed yield at cut off fell marginally (91- days:-3bps, 364-days:-1bps and 182-days: flat).
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-05-2022 25-05-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 4.9 4.9 1 Tbill-182 days 5.4 5.4 1 Tbill-364 days 5.9 5.9 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.3 6.3 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.8 0.8 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 24-05-2022 25-05-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.3) (3.2) 0.1 Reverse repo 3.1 3.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
23-05-2022 24-05-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (189.5) (259.3) (69.8) Debt (23.9) (2.9) 21.0 Equity (165.6) (256.3) (90.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,062.0 (761.4) (1,823.4) Debt 300.3 (806.4) (1,106.8) Equity 761.6 45.0 (716.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
- Crude prices rose by 0.4% to US$ 114/bbl, led by EU’s impending ban on Russian oil imports and higher seasonal demand in the
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-05-2022 25-05-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 113.6 114.0 0.4 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,866.5 1,853.5 (0.7) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,459.0 9,367.0 (1.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,798.8 3,755.8 (1.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,901.5 2,874.0 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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27 May 2022
International crude price rose to its 2-month high of US$ 117bbl, as EU is planning to ban crude imports from Russia. Elsewhere, macro print in China remained weak with industrial profit in Apr’22 plunging for the first time since CY20. Second estimate of Q1CY22 GDP of the US showed that growth fell by 1.3% QoQ, dragged down by trade deficit. In UK, finance minister announced stimulus package to tide over the current cost of living crisis. Thus, its 10Y yield rose by 6bps. On the domestic front, market will await fiscal data and auction results.
Except Nikkei and Hang Seng, other global stocks ended higher. US stocks rose sharply supported by better than expected earnings reports and optimistic outlook by large retailers. FTSE too gained by 0.6% supported by government’s stimulus measures. After falling for 3-straight sessions, Sensex closed higher by 0.9%. This was led by a recovery in metals, banking and real estate stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
25-05-2022 26-05-2022 % change Dow Jones 32,120 32,637 1.6 S & P 500 3,979 4,058 2.0 FTSE 7,523 7,565 0.6 Nikkei 26,678 26,605 (0.3) Hang Seng 20,171 20,116 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,107 3,123 0.5 Sensex 53,749 54,253 0.9 Nifty 16,026 16,170 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring CNY and INR (lower), other global currencies ended higher. DXY fell by 2% as US GDP growth contracted more than expected in Q1CY22. GBP gained by 0.2% as UK announced a slew of fiscal stimulus measures to support economic activity. On the other hand, CNY depreciated sharply by 0.7% on rising concerns over growth. INR depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices surged. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading higher.
Fig 2 – Currencies
25-05-2022 26-05-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0681 1.0725 0.4 GBP/USD 1.2574 1.2600 0.2 USD/JPY 127.32 127.12 0.2 USD/INR 77.53 77.58 (0.1) USD/CNY 6.6932 6.7389 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield closed stable tracking second estimate of Q1CY22 GDP data and jobless claims UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 6bps on account of fiscal stimulus announced by the government. Germany’s 10Y yield also rose by 5bps as one of the ECB official said that a 50bps rate hike cannot be ruled out in Jul’22. China’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps as the economy is still facing Covid induced slowdown. India’s 10Y yield fell a a tad by 1bps (7.29%). It is trading at 7.32% today, eyeing the auction results.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
25-05-2022 26-05-2022 change in bps US 2.75 2.75 0 UK 1.91 1.97 6 Germany 0.95 1.00 5 Japan 0.21 0.24 3 China 2.77 2.74 (3) India 7.30 7.29 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-05-2022 25-05-2022 % change Tbill-91 days 4.9 4.9 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.4 5.4 1 Tbill-364 days 5.9 5.9 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.3 6.3 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 0.9 0.9 0 US SOFR 0.8 0.8 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 25-05-2022 26-05-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (3.2) (3.1) 0.1 Reverse repo 3.1 3.1 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-05-2022 25-05-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (259.3) (174.8) 84.5 Debt (2.9) 33.8 36.7 Equity (256.3) (208.6) 47.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,062.0 (761.4) (1,823.4) Debt 300.3 (806.4) (1,106.8) Equity 761.6 45.0 (716.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 23rd, 24th May 2022
Crude prices rose sharply by 3% to a 2-month high of US$ 117.4/bbl. EU’s impending ban on Russian oil imports, start of US driving season and OPEC+ meeting (2 Jun) are weighing on oil prices.
Fig 7 – Commodities
25-05-2022 26-05-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 114.0 117.4 3.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,853.5 1,850.6 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,367.0 9,345.5 (0.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,755.8 3,745.0 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,874.0 2,865.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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