Economic Weekly Wrap
22 January 2024 - 25 January 2024
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24 Jan 2024
Global markets were volatile as investors reassessed the future path of global monetary policy. While BoJ kept policy rates steady, it signalled a possible shift in Apr’24. On the other hand, the probability of a rate cut by Fed in Mar’24 has declined to 46.2% from about 75.6% a month earlier. All eyes are on ECB meeting today. Separately, UK posted a lower than expected budget deficit, paving the way for possible tax cuts. In Japan, flash PMI for Jan’24 signalled an improvement (51.1 from 50 in Dec’23), led by services. Separate data also showed that exports rose by 9.8% in Dec’23 to a record high, led by a surge in exports to China and US. Import growth however, declined by 6.8%. In Australia, the flash composite PMI edged up to a 4-month high at 48.1 (46.9 in Dec’23), but remained in the contractionary zone.
Global stocks closed mixed. Stocks in China were buoyed by sentiments following remarks of China’s Securities Regulatory Commission, to boost markets. Hang Seng rose by 2.6%, supported by technology stocks. Dow Jones fell as aggressive rate cut bets by Fed have been pared down. Nikkei edged down amidst hawkish undertone in BoJ’s Governor statement. Sensex fell by 1.5%. It is trading further lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
22-01-2024 23-01-2024 % Change Dow Jones 38,002 37,905 (0.3) S & P 500 4,850 4,865 0.3 FTSE 7,488 7,486 0 Nikkei 36,547 36,518 (0.1) Hang Seng 14,961 15,354 2.6 Shanghai Comp 2,756 2,771 0.5 Sensex 71,424 70,371 (1.5) Nifty 21,572 21,239 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except CNY, other global currencies depreciated. DXY rose by 0.3% as investors reassessed the possibility of rate cuts by Fed. EUR fell the most by 0.3% as Eurozone’s flash consumer confidence dipped in Jan’24. INR depreciated by 0.1% amidst weakness in domestic equities. However, it is trading a tad stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
22-01-2024 23-01-2024 % Change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0883 1.0854 (0.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2709 1.2687 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.10 148.35 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.07 83.16 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1909 7.1718 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
22-01-2024 23-01-2024 Change in bps US 4.11 4.13 2 UK 3.90 3.99 8 Germany 2.29 2.35 6 Japan 0.66 0.67 1 China 2.50 2.51 1 India 7.18 7.18 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
Date Tbill-91 days Tbill-182 days Tbill-364 days G-Sec 2Y India OIS-2M India OIS-9M SONIA int rate benchmark US SOFR 22-01-2024 6.98 7.15 7.12 7.03 6.78 6.67 5.19 5.31 23-01-2024 6.99 7.15 7.14 7.04 6.77 6.66 5.19 5.31 Change in bps 1 0 2 1 (1) (1) 0 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Date Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) Reverse repo Repo 20-01-2024 2.4 Rs tn 0 1.8 Rs tn 23-01-2024 3.3 Rs tn 0 1.8 Rs tn Change (Rs tn) 0.9 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
Date FII (US$ mn) Debt Equity Mutual funds (Rs cr) Debt Equity 18-01-2024 (962.1) 144.1 (1,106.1) 5,791.5 (155.7) 5,947.2 19-01-2024 (357.1) 70.4 (427.5) 535.2 (2,378.1) 2,913.3 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) 604.9 (73.7) 678.6 (5,256.3) (2,222.4) (3,033.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 18 Jan and 19 Jan 2024
Oil prices moderated as global headwinds outweighed supply disruption.
Fig 7 – Commodities
Date Brent crude (US$/bbl) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) Copper (US$/ MT) Zinc (US$/MT) Aluminium (US$/MT) 22-01-2024 80.1 2,021.7 8,254.5 2,445.0 2,159.0 23-01-2024 79.6 2,029.3 8,312.0 2,512.0 2,228.0 % Change (0.6) 0.4 0.7 2.7 3.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 Jan 2024
Flash PMIs of major economies signalled an improvement in economic activity. In US and UK, flash composite PMI rose to a 7-month high, led by an improvement in both services and manufacturing activity. However, in the Eurozone the pickup in activity was driven solely by the manufacturing sector, as services activity weakened. Separately, PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50bps to 10%, effectively injecting US$ 140bn liquidity in the banking system. The move is expected to provide much needed support to the economy and pave way for further policy measures. In India, both manufacturing and services PMI showed a strong improvement in Jan’24. Domestic liquidity conditions continue to remain tight with liquidity deficit at a record high of Rs 3.5 lakh crores. Given the increasing pressure on liquidity, RBI may resort to measures to infuse durable liquidity in the system.
Except Dow Jones and Nikkei, global markets closed higher. Investors raised hopes of an easing liquidity conditions amidst stimulus measures in China. Hang Seng rose the most, followed by Shanghai Comp. Sensex rose by 1%, led by metal and oil and gas stocks. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
23-01-2024 24-01-2024 % change Dow Jones 37,905 37,806 (0.3) S & P 500 4,865 4,869 0.1 FTSE 7,486 7,528 0.6 Nikkei 36,518 36,226 (0.8) Hang Seng 15,354 15,900 3.6 Shanghai Comp 2,771 2,821 1.8 Sensex 70,371 71,060 1.0 Nifty 21,239 21,454 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies broadly gained against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.4% as investors await US GDP report. Prospects of an end to BoJ’s ultra-dovish policy pushed JPY 0.6% higher. GBP and EUR also gained amidst Improvement in flash composite PMIs in UK and Eurozone. INR is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
23-01-2024 24-01-2024 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0854 1.0885 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2687 1.2726 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.35 147.51 0.6 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.16 83.13 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1718 7.1580 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Germany (tad lower) and China (stable), global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by 5bps as PMI data improved, which again raised doubts about timing of rate cut by Fed. Even Japan’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps as some pivot in policy is anticipated. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad and is trading at 7.19% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-01-2024 24-01-2024 change in bps US 4.13 4.18 5 UK 3.99 4.01 2 Germany 2.35 2.34 (1) Japan 0.67 0.72 5 China 2.51 2.51 0 India 7.18 7.18 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
22-01-2024 23-01-2024 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.99 7.00 1 Tbill-182 days 7.15 7.19 4 Tbill-364 days 7.14 7.16 2 G-Sec 2Y 7.04 7.03 (1) India OIS-2M 6.77 6.76 (1) India OIS-9M 6.66 6.66 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
23-01-2024 24-01-2024 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 3.3 3.5 0.2 Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 1.8 3.0 1.2 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-01-2024 23-01-2024 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (357.1) (235.7) 121.5 Debt 70.4 90.1 19.7 Equity (427.5) (325.8) 101.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 5,791.5 (58.3) (5,849.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 18 Jan and 19 Jan 2024
Oil prices inched up amidst a rundown in US crude stockpiles.
Fig 7 – Commodities
23-01-2024 24-01-2024 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.6 80.0 0.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,029.3 2,013.9 (0.8) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,312.0 8,472.5 1.9 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,512.0 2,580.3 2.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,228.0 2,229.5 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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