Economic Weekly Wrap
21 October 2024 - 25 October 2024

Major data releases form China lifted hopes of a possible rebound in the economy. Better than anticipated GDP along with uptick in both industrial output and retail sales print supported the narrative. Additionally, PBoC launched another set of stimulus measures with 2-funding schemes with the objective to support the capital market and this is expected to pump in US$ 112.4bn. Separately, In US, stronger data as reflected by pick up in retail sales and lower jobless claims eased fears of slowdown. Furthermore, bets of aggressive rate cuts by Fed has also moderated. Fed President Bostic also recently commented to be patient with rate cuts and stated recession is not underway or likely at this time. Investors are pricing in 2 rate cuts of 25bps each before the end of the year.

Barring FTSE, other global indices ended higher. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were the biggest gainers amidst better than expected GDP print from China. US indices ended in green supported by strong earnings report. Sensex advanced further led by gains in banking and metal stocks. It is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR, other global currencies ended stronger as the dollar rally took a breather. DXY declined by 0.3% amidst an improvement in global risk appetite. CNY rose by 0.3% as the government unveiled measures aimed at boosting the stock markets. INR languished near its record-low due to FPI outflows. It is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Global yields closed mixed monitoring escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipation of staggered monetary easing. Yields in UK and Germany softened. Better retail sales print in the UK also couldn’t cap its yield. China’s 10Y yield inched up supported by better macro data. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps as RBI’s Governor speech hinted at cautious approach. It is trading at 6.8% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 14th and 15th Oct

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Recent commentary by Fed officials brought focus back on the trajectory of interest rates. Fed official Kashkari stated the long run path of rates could be higher than it has been in the past. On the other hand, Fed President Logan noted a patient approach is needed and thereby rates have to be lowered gradually to normal or neutral level in order to ‘manage the risk and achieve our goals’. Investors monitored these comments; treasury yields surged to its highest level to 4.2%. A slew of data, including US home sales, durable goods, flash PMI and Fed’s Beige book will guide markets this week. Separately, PBoC lowered its 1-year and 5-year lending rate by 25bps each, to 3.1% and 3.6% respectively.

Barring Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended lower with the focus shifting towards the earnings report. US indices ended lower as investors turned their focus towards upcoming US presidential elections. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng dropped the most. Sensex too ended in red and was dragged down by losses in oil & gas and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring Asia, other global yields jumped up sharply. US 10Y yield rose by 11bps, as chances of US Fed maintaining higher rates for longer increased. Also, with Presidential elections only 2 weeks away, analysts remain cautious on that front as well. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps, tracking gains in oil prices. It is trading a tad higher at 6.84% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 16th and 17th Oct

Oil prices rose, driven by hopes of economic recovery in China (rate cut)

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook stated the global growth is expected to be stable but ‘underwhelming’ at 3.2% in CY24 and CY25, unchanged from the Apr’24 report. However, there has been some downward revisions in growth forecasts for Middle East, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. This is on account of disruption to production and shipping of commodities-oil. Other factors like, ongoing conflicts, civil unrest and extreme weather conditions also impacted growth. Forecast for US (2.8% in CY24), Britain and Brazil has been revised upwards, while for China (4.8% in CY24), Japan and Euro zone has been lowered. IMF has retained India’s growth projection of 7% and 6.5% for FY25 and FY26 respectively.

Global indices ended mixed. Markets is expected to be volatile in the upcoming week with investors eyeing out the outcome of presidential elections as well as scrutinizing the earnings report. Amongst other indices, Nikkei dropped the most. Sensex dropped by 1.1% too ended in red with sharp losses in real estate and power stocks. Overall market cap of Sensex fell by Rs 9tn from a high seen on 20 Sep. It is trading steady today, other Asian stocks are trading higher.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Barring India, other global yields inched up. 10Y yields in Germany and UK rose the most. US 10Y yield was also up by 1bps, as chances of 25bps rate cut by Fed in Nov’24 rose to 91% (CME). Political uncertainty also weighed on investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps, despite increase in oil prices. However, tracking global cues, it is trading a tad higher at 6.83% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 17th and 18th Oct

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fed’s Beige book report noted the economic activity across the country has been sluggish with consumers holding off their spending decision until the elections. The employment growth has moderated and there is widespread weakness noted in manufacturing. On the domestic front, MPC minutes with new external members highlighted there was one vote for rate cut (by 25bps), noting the economy might witness a slowdown based on emerging trends and inflationary demand has been well anchored. However, another member pointed out that the battle against inflation isn’t over yet. Even RBI Governor reiterated that rate cuts at this stage could be premature and it’s ideally better to ‘remain flexible and wait for more evidence of inflation aligning durably with the target’. Separately, GDP in South Korea rose by 0.1% in Q3CY24 (estm; 0.5%) and narrowly avoided technical recession.

Global indices ended mixed. US indices declined further for the 3rd day in a row with losses noted in technology sector. Investors have pared their expectations of aggressive rate cuts by Fed. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng gained the most. Sensex slipped further with power and capital good stocks leading the losses. It is trading steady today, other Asian stocks are trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR, other global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.3% and hovers near end-Jul’24 levels. Possibility of higher inflation scenario if President Trump comes back to power and Fed officials stating the need for slower rate cuts, is supporting the rise in US$. INR ended flat, but is trading a tad higher today (due to dip in oil prices), in line with other Asian currencies

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Major global yields closed mixed. 10Y yields in US rose the most, while it fell in Germany. Gains in US 10Y yield were led by continued political uncertainty before Presidential elections, and statements by Fed officials against another “outsized” rate cut. In contrast, ECB is set to cut rates aggressively. India’s 10Y yield ended flat, and is trading lower at 6.81% today, tracking dip in oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Oil prices fell, tracking higher than expected rise in US crude inventories.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Flash US PMI noted the growing strength in the economy (54.3 from 54 in Sep’24) supported by uptick in business activity, with growth driven by services sector. On the other hand, Eurozone continues to struggle with PMI reading remaining in the contractionary zone (49.7 in Oct) and downturns noted in both France and Germany. Separately, jobless claims in the US dropped below estimates to 227k signalling strength in the labour market. On domestic front, flash manufacturing PMI for Oct’24 inched up to 58.6 from 58.3 in Sep’24. The improvement was supported by expansion in both new orders and export orders at a much faster pace. Though, manufacturer’s profit margin remained under pressure due to higher input price inflation. Services PMI too inched up to 57.9 (from 57.7). Additionally, there was also a pick-up in hiring activity especially in service sector.

Global indices ended mixed. Investors continue to monitor corporate results, jobless claims and awaited the outcome of the US Presidential election. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng dropped the most followed by Shanghai Comp. Sensex ended flat and is trading lower today. Asian stocks are trading higher ahead of the key elections in Japan and after PBoC kept rates on hold.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. After rising by nearly 1% in the last 3 sessions, DXY fell by 0.3%. Investors monitored macro data including US jobless claims and flash PMI. Focus remains also on the US Presidential Elections. INR ended flat near its record low. It is trading at similar levels today, while Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields ended mixed. Market focus has turned to the outcome of the US Presidential Elections and US payrolls report next week. US 10Y yield retreated from a 3-month peak and declined by 3bps. Yields in Germany also declined by 4bps as flash PMI signalled bleak economic prospects in the region. India’s 10Y yield ended flat at 6.82%, and is trading at similar levels even today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 21st and 22nd Oct

Oil prices declined amid reports of ceasefire talks in the Middle East.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research