Economic Weekly Wrap
21 November 2022 - 24 November 2022
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21 Nov 2022
Investors gear up for the Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later this week in order to gauge the interest rate trajectory after some officials made hawkish comments. China’s Central Bank in line with expectation has kept the benchmark rates on hold. Britain’s retail sales made some recovery even as UK continues to battle high inflation (41-year high). The demand for safe haven weakened. Commodity prices took a beating on the back of subdued demand from China as tighter restriction were imposed once again.
Barring US and UK markets, other global indices ended lower. Investors turned their focus ahead of the Fed’s minutes and for a possible pivot. Investors also monitored tighter curbs imposed in China to manage Covid-19. Amongst other indices, Shanghai Comp (0.6%) dropped the most. Sensex also ended in red led by losses in auto and oil & gas stocks. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
17-11-2022 18-11-2022 % change Dow Jones 33,546 33,746 0.6 S & P 500 3,947 3,965 0.5 FTSE 7,347 7,386 0.5 Nikkei 27,931 27,900 (0.1) Hang Seng 18,046 17,993 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,115 3,097 (0.6) Sensex 61,751 61,663 (0.1) Nifty 18,344 18,308 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring GBP and CNY (higher), other global currencies ended lower. DXY rose by 0.2% as investors expect Fed to continue on its rate hiking path. GBP was driven by budget announcements and retail sales data. EUR declined the most by 0.4% as Oct’22 inflation came in lower than expected. INR depreciated by 0.1% despite easing oil prices. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
17-11-2022 18-11-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0362 1.0325 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.1864 1.1890 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.20 140.37 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.63 81.70 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1578 7.1198 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Germany (lower) and Japan (flat), other global 10Y yields inched up. Yields in US (+6bps) and UK (+4bps) rose the most. Comments from various Fed officials are indicative that the central bank will maintain its stance on rate hikes. In the UK, investors reacted to budget announced by the FM and retail sales data for Oct’22. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps to 7.31% following global cues. It is trading marginally lower at 7.30% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-11-2022 18-11-2022 change in bps US 3.77 3.83 6 UK 3.20 3.24 4 Germany 2.02 2.01 (1) Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.80 2.83 3 India 7.28 7.31 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
17-11-2022 18-11-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.38 6.38 0 Tbill-182 days 6.62 6.62 0 Tbill-364 days 6.84 6.77 (7) G-Sec 2Y 6.88 6.89 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.81 3.80 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 17-11-2022 18-11-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.0) (0.4) 0.6 Reverse repo 0.3 0 (0.3) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
16-11-2022 17-11-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 127.1 258.1 131.0 Debt 122.3 64.1 (58.2) Equity 4.8 193.9 189.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,043.9 1,128.1 (915.8) Debt 882.5 159.4 (723.1) Equity 1,161.4 968.6 (192.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices slid by 2.4% to US$87/bbl, as supply fears receded. Gold prices too edged lower.
Fig 7 – Commodities
17-11-2022 18-11-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 89.8 87.6 (2.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,760.4 1,750.7 (0.6) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,072.3 8,042.5 (0.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,984.0 3,023.0 1.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,391.0 2,430.0 1.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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22 Nov 2022
Arebound in Covid-19 cases in China nudged the authorities to reconsider imposing lockdown restrictions. Oil prices took a sharp fall in the day (closer to Jan’22 levels) after media reports claimed the OPEC + allies will raise the output. However, these claims were later denied by Saudi Arabia. On treasury, the yield curve inversion weighed in on Fed’s rate decision which is expected to have an impact on growth. Investors are anticipating a 50bps rate hike in Dec’22 with possible peaking of rates in Jun’23. Fed minutes scheduled to release tomorrow might shed some more light on the same.
Barring Nikkei, other global indices ended lower. Recent flare up of Covid-19 cases in China, added to concerns around recovery prospects, raising the possibility of strict curbs once again. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng (1.9%) dropped the most. Sensex also ended in red led by subdued global cues. It was dragged down by losses in power and real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-11-2022 21-11-2022 % change Dow Jones 33,746 33,700 (0.1) S & P 500 3,965 3,950 (0.4) FTSE 7,386 7,377 (0.1) Nikkei 27,900 27,945 0.2 Hang Seng 17,993 17,656 (1.9) Shanghai Comp 3,097 3,085 (0.4) Sensex 61,663 61,145 (0.8) Nifty 18,308 18,160 (0.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended lower against the US dollar and DXY rose by 0.8%. Demand for safe haven gathered momentum as investors worry about the economic impact of recent surge in Covid-19 cases in China. JPY and EUR fell the most. Following global cues even INR depreciated by 0.2%. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-11-2022 21-11-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0325 1.0242 (0.8) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.1890 1.1823 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.37 142.14 (1.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.70 81.85 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1198 7.1653 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed, with yields in UK and Germany falling, in India rising, and closing flat elsewhere. In the US while 10Y closed flat, 2Y yield fell by 3bps, as investors look forward to signals from Fed minutes. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps to 7.32% awaiting fresh cues from the US. It is trading further higher at 7.33% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-11-2022 21-11-2022 change in bps US 3.83 3.83 0 UK 3.24 3.19 (5) Germany 2.01 1.99 (2) Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.83 2.83 0 India 7.31 7.32 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-11-2022 21-11-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.38 6.40 2 Tbill-182 days 6.62 6.62 0 Tbill-364 days 6.77 6.80 3 G-Sec 2Y 6.89 6.90 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.80 3.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 18-11-2022 21-11-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.4) 0.1 0.5 Reverse repo 0 0.5 0.5 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-11-2022 18-11-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 258.1 81.4 (176.7) Debt 64.1 48.1 (16.0) Equity 193.9 33.3 (160.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,043.9 1,128.1 (915.8) Debt 882.5 159.4 (723.1) Equity 1,161.4 968.6 (192.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices slipped marginally after initial media report of higher oil supply by OPEC, however the report was later denied. Gold continued to slide further.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-11-2022 21-11-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 87.6 87.5 (0.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,750.7 1,738.1 (0.7) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,042.5 7,840.5 (2.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,023.0 2,890.3 (4.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,430.0 2,379.0 (2.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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23 Nov 2022
The Chinese economy once again grappled with the possibility of imposing restrictions with the flare up of Covid-19 cases. This along with Fed’s minutes (scheduled to release later today) weighed on investor sentiment. Fed Officials had recently made comments on how lowering inflation is critical amidst a likelihood of smaller rate hike in Dec’22. US dollar retreated and gold prices edged upwards. Crude prices rose as OPEC and its allies decided to stick with supply cuts. Central Bank of New Zealand recorded the biggest rate hike (+75bps) ever and signalled more tightening is in the offing in order to manage stubborn inflation.
Barring Hang Seng, other global indices advanced. European markets moved up with strong gains in oil and gas stocks as oil prices rebounded. Investors will closely monitor Fed minutes as lower than expected inflation print may prompt Fed to slow down rate hike in the coming months. Sensex also ended in green led by gains in consumer durable and IT stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-11-2022 22-11-2022 % change Dow Jones 33,700 34,098 1.2 S & P 500 3,950 4,004 1.4 FTSE 7,377 7,453 1.0 Nikkei 27,945 28,116 0.6 Hang Seng 17,656 17,424 (1.3) Shanghai Comp 3,085 3,089 0.1 Sensex 61,145 61,419 0.4 Nifty 18,160 18,244 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed higher. DXY fell by 0.1% amidst expectations of slower pace of rate hike by Fed as few data points in the US are showing impact of transmission of monetary policy. EUR rose the most by 0.6% as ECB official said 50-75bps rate hike is possible in the Dec’22 meeting. INR appreciated by 0.4% amidst reports of RBI’s dollar sales. However it is trading lower today, while other Asian peers are trading higher.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-11-2022 22-11-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0242 1.0304 0.6 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.1823 1.1886 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 142.14 141.23 0.6 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.85 81.67 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1653 7.1399 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (stable) and China (tad higher by 1bps), global yields closed lower. US’ 10Y yield fell the most by 7bps followed by UK (-5bps). This was following Fed officials (San Francisco and Cleveland Fed President) comments on moderating the pace of future rate hikes. UK’s 10Y yield was supported by lower than expected borrowing data in Oct’22. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps (7.29%) tracking the fall in 5Y swap rates. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-11-2022 22-11-2022 change in bps US 3.83 3.76 (7) UK 3.19 3.14 (5) Germany 1.99 1.98 (2) Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.83 2.83 1 India 7.32 7.29 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-11-2022 22-11-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.40 6.40 0 Tbill-182 days 6.62 6.71 9 Tbill-364 days 6.80 6.89 9 G-Sec 2Y 6.90 6.89 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.80 3.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 21-11-2022 22-11-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.2 0.1 Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-11-2022 21-11-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 81.4 (509.0) (590.4) Debt 48.1 (359.7) (407.8) Equity 33.3 (149.3) (182.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,043.9 1,128.1 (915.8) Debt 882.5 159.4 (723.1) Equity 1,161.4 968.6 (192.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices rebounded and rose by 1% to US$ 88.4/bbl after Saudi Arabia denied reports of supply increase by OPEC+ allies. Gold prices also inched up.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-11-2022 22-11-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 87.5 88.4 1.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,738.1 1,740.3 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,840.5 7,975.3 1.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,890.3 2,906.0 0.5 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,379.0 2,429.0 2.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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24 Nov 2022
Global equity indices edged up and there was an increased appetite for sovereign bonds as well. This was on account of Fed minutes signalling slower pace of rate hike in the upcoming meetings to preserve financial stability. CME fed watch tool is now attaching a probability of 75.8% for a 50bps rate hike rather than 75bps rate hike. DXY also fell by 1.1%. On macro data front, while durable goods orders picked up in the US, PMI print posed risk to growth outlook. Even in the UK and Germany, despite better than expected flash PMI print, it remained considerably in the contraction territory. Bank of Korea also slowed down the pace of its rate hike (+25bps increase against +50bps hike seen in the previous policies).
Global indices advanced after Fed minutes signalled slower pace of rate hikes in the coming months. Better than expected Eurozone PMI (47.8 from 47.3) also lifted sentiments. Both S&P500 and Hang Seng advanced the most, each gaining by 0.6%. Sensex also ended in green led by banking and oil & gas stocks. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
22-11-2022 23-11-2022 % change Dow Jones 34,098 34,194 0.3 S & P 500 4,004 4,027 0.6 FTSE 7,453 7,465 0.2 Nikkei 27,945 28,116 0.6 Hang Seng 17,424 17,524 0.6 Shanghai Comp 3,089 3,097 0.3 Sensex 61,419 61,511 0.1 Nifty 18,244 18,267 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR and CNY (lower), others ended higher against the dollar. DXY fell by 1.1%. GBP and JPY rose the most. Risk appetite of investors improved as Fed minutes showed that members agree on Fed slowing down the pace of future rate hikes. Further, as PMI remains weak, there is a risk of economic slowdown in the US. INR fell by 0.2%. However, following global cues, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
22-11-2022 23-11-2022 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0304 1.0397 0.9 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.1886 1.2055 1.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 141.23 139.60 1.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.67 81.85 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1399 7.1605 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except India and Japan (flat), other global yields closed lower, with yields in UK, US and Germany falling the most. Investors reacted to Fed minutes hinting at less aggressive monetary policy in the coming months. Also as US yield curve remains inverted and weaker manufacturing PMI added to the risk of recession. India’s 10Y yield closed flat at 7.29% and is further lower at 7.28% today, following cues from the US.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-11-2022 22-11-2022 change in bps US 3.83 3.76 (7) UK 3.19 3.14 (5) Germany 1.99 1.98 (2) Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.83 2.83 1 India 7.32 7.29 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
22-11-2022 23-11-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.40 6.44 4 Tbill-182 days 6.71 6.74 3 Tbill-364 days 6.89 6.82 (7) G-Sec 2Y 6.89 6.90 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.93 2.93 0 US SOFR 3.80 3.80 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 22-11-2022 23-11-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.2 0.1 (0.1) Reverse repo 0.5 0.5 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
21-11-2022 22-11-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (509.0) (9.0) 500.0 Debt (359.7) 20.0 379.7 Equity (149.3) (29.0) 120.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,043.9 1,128.1 (915.8) Debt 882.5 159.4 (723.1) Equity 1,161.4 968.6 (192.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Nov 2022 and 14 Nov 2022
Crude oil prices slid over a built-up of higher gasoline inventories in the US. Gold prices continued to edge upwards.
Fig 7 – Commodities
22-11-2022 23-11-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 88.4 85.4 (3.3) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,740.3 1,749.7 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,975.3 7,962.3 (0.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,906.0 2,900.3 (0.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,429.0 2,397.0 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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