Economic Weekly Wrap
20 February 2023 - 24 February 2023
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20 Feb 2023
Global market keenly await the release of Fed minutes scheduled this week, along with the commentary by Fed officials, that is expected to provide further rate guidance. Last week data print form US has made a stronger case of terminal rates peaking to 5.28% and have downplayed the likelihood of any rate cuts this year. Core PCE is also scheduled to release this week. PBOC kept the prime lending rate for both 1-year (3.65% for the 6th month in a row) and 5-year (4.3%) unchanged in line with expectation. There is possibility of reduction in rates in the coming months in order to support economic recovery. Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike interest rate by 50bps in the policy meet today.
Except Dow Jones, other global indices closed lower. News reports of Fed remaining hawkish for a longer period than anticipated earlier kept investors on the edge. Hang Seng (1.3%) dropped the most followed by losses in Shanghai Comp (0.8%). Sensex too ended in red led by losses in realty, IT and consumer durable stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
16-02-2023 17-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,697 33,827 0.4 S & P 500 4,090 4,079 (0.3) FTSE 8,013 8,004 (0.1) Nikkei 27,696 27,513 (0.7) Hang Seng 20,988 20,720 (1.3) Shanghai Comp 3,249 3,224 (0.8) Sensex 61,320 61,003 (0.5) Nifty 18,036 17,944 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
While Asian currencies ended lower against the dollar, EUR and GBP appreciated. DXY ended flat, following decline in US 10Y yield. GBP was supported by rebound in retail sales growth in Jan’23. Decline in Germany’s PPI also helped lift investor sentiments. INR fell by 0.1%, despite dip in oil prices. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
16-02-2023 17-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0674 1.0695 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.1993 1.2037 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 133.94 134.15 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.72 82.83 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8575 6.8686 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. While yields in US (-5bps) and Germany (- 4bps) fell the most, in UK and India they ended higher. Investors were watchful of unexpectedly high retail sales growth in the UK, dip in Germany’s PPI; and await FOMC minutes to gauge the trajectory of rate hikes by US Fed. India’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps, as RBI partially devolved 2033 bond in weekly G-sec auction. However, tracking global cues, it is trading tad lower at 7.36% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
16-02-2023 17-02-2023 change in bps US 3.86 3.81 (5) UK 3.50 3.52 2 Germany 2.48 2.44 (4) Japan 0.51 0.51 0 China 2.89 2.89 0 India 7.32 7.37 5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
16-02-2023 17-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.74 6.77 3 Tbill-182 days 7.08 7.09 1 Tbill-364 days 7.14 7.15 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.16 7.21 5 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 16-02-2023 17-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.2 0.1 Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
15-02-2023 16-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 56.2 254.7 198.6 Debt (36.9) 9.1 46.0 Equity 93.0 245.6 152.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil prices fell by 2.5%, amidst higher supplies in US (crude and gasoline inventories) and possibility of more rate hikes by Fed.
Fig 7 – Commodities
16-02-2023 17-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 85.1 83.0 (2.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,836.4 1,842.4 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,991.5 8,950.3 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,030.8 3,085.8 1.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,394.0 2,387.5 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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21 Feb 2023
Global market on Tuesday woke up to a slower day with the flash manufacturing PMI reading of Japan coming in at 44.9 against 47.2 in January. Both new orders and production dropped. Australia composite PMI inched up (49.2 against 48.5), but remained in the contraction zone for the 5th straight month. Reserve Bank of Australia in its minutes reiterated its commitment of more interest rates hike. Investors will be carefully monitoring Fed minutes for any guidance of rate hikes. Recent economic data from US has increased likelihood of Fed to continue on the hawkish path. The terminal rates are also likely to peak at 5.28% than 5.1% as was initially anticipated. Likelihood of rate cuts this year have also somewhat faded.
Global indices ended mixed as investors looked for more cues and turned their focus towards Fed minutes and release of US PMI print. Shanghai Comp advanced by 2.1% led by strong gains in property stocks and post its Central Bank’s announcement of keeping lending rates unchanged. Hang Seng (1.3%) too edged up by 0.8%. However, domestic market started the week on a sombre note led by losses in banking and oil and gas stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
17-02-2023 20-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,697 33,827 0.4 S & P 500 4,090 4,079 (0.3) FTSE 8,004 8,014 0.1 Nikkei 27,513 27,532 0.1 Hang Seng 20,720 20,887 0.8 Shanghai Comp 3,224 3,290 2.1 Sensex 61,003 60,692 (0.5) Nifty 17,944 17,845 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring EUR and JPY (lower), other major currencies closed higher/flat against the dollar. Hawkish comments from ECB officials dragged EUR lower. Further, indication of Fed continuing to pursue rate hikes in its upcoming meetings, retained pressure on Yen. INR rose by 0.1%, despite increase in oil prices. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
17-02-2023 20-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0695 1.0686 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2037 1.2041 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.15 134.25 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.83 82.73 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8686 6.8552 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. While yields in UK (-4bps) and India (-2bps) fell, in Germany and China they edged higher. Investors in Eurozone are pricing in more rate hikes in the coming months, as signalled in statements of some ECB officials. India’s 10Y yield fell, tracking movement in US yields at the end of last week. Awaiting fresh cues, it is trading slightly higher at 7.37% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-02-2023 20-02-2023 change in bps US 3.86 3.81 (5) UK 3.52 3.47 (4) Germany 2.44 2.46 2 Japan 0.51 0.51 0 China 2.89 2.92 3 India 7.37 7.35 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
17-02-2023 20-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.77 6.78 1 Tbill-182 days 7.09 7.09 0 Tbill-364 days 7.15 7.16 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.21 7.19 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 17-02-2023 20-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.2 0.4 0.2 Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
16-02-2023 17-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 254.7 (34.1) (288.8) Debt 9.1 55.8 46.7 Equity 245.6 (89.9) (335.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil prices edged up by 1.3% to US$ 84.1/bbl, amidst stronger demand outlook.
Fig 7 – Commodities
17-02-2023 20-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.0 84.1 1.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,842.4 1,841.4 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,950.3 9,115.5 1.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,085.8 3,164.5 2.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,387.5 2,457.5 2.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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22 Feb 2023
Global markets continue to fret over the future of interest rates ahead of the release of Fed minutes and any future guidance on rate trajectory. Stronger than expected economic data from US (business activity edged up to 8-month high) added further support to the likelihood of continuation of stiff monetary policy by Fed. Separately, in line with expectation, Central Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 50bps to 4.75% (14-year high) and signalled the likelihood of more rate hikes in order to ensure inflation returns to target range. BoJ noted that in order to curb elevated yields, it will conduct emergency bond buying as 10Y yield breached 0.5% mark.
Barring Shanghai Comp (higher) and Sensex (flat), other global indices ended lower with concerns emerging over rates staying higher for a longer period to tackle inflation. This was further supported by additional economic data (US composite PMI climbed to 50.2 in Feb’23 against 46.8 in Jan’23) release. Dow Jones slipped with fading hopes of any dovish pivot by Fed. Sensex ended flat. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-02-2023 21-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,827 33,130 (2.1) S & P 500 4,079 3,997 (2.0) FTSE 8,014 7,978 (0.5) Nikkei 27,532 27,473 (0.2) Hang Seng 20,887 20,529 (1.7) Shanghai Comp 3,290 3,307 0.5 Sensex 60,692 60,673 0 Nifty 17,845 17,827 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring GBP (higher), other major currencies closed lower against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.3%. DXY and GBP rose as PMI indices showed that services led economic activity returned to growth in Feb’23 in the US and UK. EUR was impacted by worsening manufacturing activity in the area. INR fell by 0.1%. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-02-2023 21-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0686 1.0648 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2041 1.2112 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.25 135.01 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.73 82.80 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8552 6.8795 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (flat), global 10Y yields closed higher. Yields in US (at highest since Nov’22) and UK rose sharply (+14bps each). Resilient economic activity in the US has led to increased fears that inflation might remain sticky and Fed will have to keep rates elevated for a longer duration of time. US 2Y yield also rose, keeping the yield curve inverted, thus indicating fears of imminent recession. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps. It is trading further higher at 7.40% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-02-2023 21-02-2023 change in bps US 3.81 3.95 14 UK 3.47 3.61 14 Germany 2.46 2.53 6 Japan 0.51 0.51 0 China 2.92 2.92 0 India 7.35 7.36 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-02-2023 21-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.78 6.78 0 Tbill-182 days 7.09 7.10 1 Tbill-364 days 7.16 7.20 4 G-Sec 2Y 7.19 7.21 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 20-02-2023 21-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.4 0.7 0.3 Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-02-2023 20-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (34.1) 38.0 72.1 Debt 55.8 (18.9) (74.7) Equity (89.9) 56.9 146.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil prices tumbled again by 1.2% to US$ 83.1/bbl, amidst concerns around global economic growth.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-02-2023 21-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 84.1 83.1 (1.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,841.4 1,835.1 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,115.5 9,183.5 0.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,164.5 3,171.5 0.2 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,457.5 2,467.5 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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23 Feb 2023
Fed minutes had a marginally hawkish tone, reaffirming the risk of inflation as a ‘key factor’ and pointed that more hikes are warranted to control it. On domestic front, RBI in its minutes highlighted it is too early to hit pause. Two considerations were suggested to taper the pace of rate hike 1) Time to be given to past policy actions to work. 2) premature to pause or have to catch up later. It was noted the stance will ‘remain disinflationary’ until inflation reaches its target. Separately, BoK has kept rates on hold (at 3.5%) a first since the rate hike cycle began. Germany’s CPI edged up to 8.7% in Jan’23 against 8.6% in line with expectation.
Global indices ended lower. Investors monitored Fed’s minutes that offered some guidance on rate trajectory. Minutes also confirmed that higher interest rate regime will force the economy to slow down considerably. Amongst other indices, Sensex has the worst fall on the back of weak global cues. It was dragged down further by losses in power and real estate stocks. It is trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-02-2023 22-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,130 33,045 (0.3) S & P 500 3,997 3,991 (0.2) FTSE 7,978 7,931 (0.6) Nikkei 27,473 27,104 (1.3) Hang Seng 20,529 20,424 (0.5) Shanghai Comp 3,307 3,291 (0.5) Sensex 60,673 59,745 (1.5) Nifty 17,827 17,554 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY (higher), other major currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.4%, following the released Fed minutes, which indicate that members agree to keep rates elevated for the time being and certain members also believe that risks to recession also remain heightened. INR fell by 0.1%. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-02-2023 22-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0648 1.0605 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2112 1.2046 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 135.01 134.84 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.80 82.86 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8795 6.8929 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan, China (flat) and India (higher), global 10Y yields closed lower. Yields in US fell the most, followed by UK and Germany. Market participants seem to have priced in news of prolonged rate hikes by Fed, which was also reaffirmed in the minutes of its Feb’23 meeting. Some members even cautioned that risks to recession remain high. Slight dip in Germany’s Ifo current condition index also points towards expected weakens in growth. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps and is trading marginally higher at 7.41% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-02-2023 22-02-2023 change in bps US 3.95 3.92 (4) UK 3.61 3.60 (1) Germany 2.53 2.52 (1) Japan 0.51 0.51 0 China 2.92 2.92 0 India 7.36 7.40 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-02-2023 22-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.78 6.83 5 Tbill-182 days 7.10 7.16 6 Tbill-364 days 7.20 7.23 3 G-Sec 2Y 7.21 7.25 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 21-02-2023 21-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.7 0.5 (0.2) Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-02-2023 21-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 38.0 37.4 (0.6) Debt (18.9) (86.9) (68.0) Equity 56.9 124.3 67.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil prices dropped by 3% to US$ 80.6/bbl, as concerns re-emerged over demand outlook along with risk of higher inflation.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-02-2023 22-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 83.1 80.6 (3.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,835.1 1,825.4 (0.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,183.5 9,103.0 (0.9) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,171.5 3,088.8 (2.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,467.5 2,418.0 (2.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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24 Feb 2023
Finance Ministry in its economic outlook noted the global slowdown is expected to continue in the coming months on the back of weak global demand due to monetary tightening. There is also likelihood of El Nino conditions in India which will result in higher inflation and lower agriculture output. Separately, Japan’s CPI rose to 41-year high (4.2% in Jan’23 versus 4%). Stubbornly high prices of fuel and other raw material cost, pushed core inflation higher and above BoJ’s target for 9th month in a row. BoJ’s new governor commented on the ultra-dovish monetary strategy calling it ‘appropriate’. US core PCE, is scheduled to release today (expectation of 0.4% in Jan’23 against 0.3% in Dec’22 on a MoM basis).
Barring US indices, other global indices ended lower. Weekly jobless claims in the US dropped, signalling tighter labour market. Concerns of aggressive monetary tightening by Central Banks kept investors on the edge. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng dropped by 0.4% followed by losses in FTSE (0.3%). Sensex too ended in red led by losses in real estate and power stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
22-02-2023 23-02-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,045 33,154 0.3 S & P 500 3,991 4,012 0.5 FTSE 7,931 7,908 (0.3) Nikkei 27,473 27,104 (1.3) Hang Seng 20,424 20,351 (0.4) Shanghai Comp 3,291 3,287 (0.1) Sensex 59,745 59,606 (0.2) Nifty 17,554 17,511 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY and INR (higher), other major currencies fell against the dollar. DXY ended flat. Downward revision to US Q4CY22 GDP and continued strength in US labour market impacted investor sentiments. INR was up by 0.1%. According to news reports, state owned banks and RBI reportedly sold dollars, which supported INR. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
22-02-2023 23-02-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0605 1.0596 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2046 1.2013 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 134.84 134.70 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.86 82.74 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 6.8929 6.9081 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Major global 10Y yields closed lower, with those in US and Germany falling the most. 10Y yield in US was down by 4bps, as weaker than expected GDP print has revived fears of impending global recession, even more so as Fed is likely to continue hiking rates in the coming months. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps. It is trading a tad higher at 7.38% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
22-02-2023 23-02-2023 change in bps US 3.92 3.88 (4) UK 3.60 3.59 (1) Germany 2.52 2.48 (4) Japan 0.51 0.51 0 China 2.92 2.93 1 India 7.40 7.37 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
22-02-2023 23-02-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.78 6.83 5 Tbill-182 days 7.10 7.16 6 Tbill-364 days 7.20 7.23 3 G-Sec 2Y 7.21 7.25 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.93 3.93 0 US SOFR 4.55 4.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 22-02-2023 23-02-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.5 0.3 (0.2) Reverse repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
21-02-2023 22-02-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 37.4 78.4 41.0 Debt (86.9) 85.9 172.8 Equity 124.3 (7.5) (131.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (235.0) (21.3) 213.7 Debt (352.2) (68.8) 283.5 Equity 117.3 47.5 (69.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual funds data as of 25 Jan 2023 and 27 Jan 2023
Global oil prices edged upwards by 2% amidst news reports of steep productions cuts to Russian production (0.5mn bbl/day).
Fig 7 – Commodities
22-02-2023 23-02-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 80.6 82.2 2.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,825.4 1,822.3 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,103.0 8,885.0 (2.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,088.8 3,059.8 (0.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,418.0 2,396.0 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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