Economic Weekly Wrap
19th - 23rd September 2022
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19 Sep 2022
World Bank has recently warned of global recession in CY23 as global central banks are on a rate hike spree, to combat inflation. Over 13 Central Banks are expected to make key rate decisions this week with analysts questioning how high the interest rates will be in the coming months. Global stock indices ended lower. Dollar remained sturdy. Oil prices inched up after some cities in China lifted lockdown restriction thus boosting demand outlook. Japan and UK will remain closed today.
Global stocks ended lower as fears of global economic slowdown mounted with focus shifting towards upcoming US Fed policy meet scheduled later this week. Amongst other indices, Shanghai Comp (2.3%) dropped the most. This was followed by Sensex (1.8%) on the back of sharp losses in real estate and technology stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian markets.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
15-09-2022 16-09-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,962 30,822 (0.5) S & P 500 3,901 3,873 (0.7) FTSE 7,282 7,237 (0.6) Nikkei 27,876 27,568 (1.1) Hang Seng 18,930 18,762 (0.9) Shanghai Comp 3,200 3,126 (2.3) Sensex 59,934 58,841 (1.8) Nifty 17,877 17,531 (1.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP and INR (lower), other global currencies appreciated. DXY ended flat as investors noted moderate improvement in consumer sentiment index and await Fed’s Sep’22 policy decision. JPY gained the most on safe-haven appeal. INR depreciated by 0.1% as oil prices inched up. However, it is trading higher today; while other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
15-09-2022 16-09-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0001 1.0016 0.1 GBP/USD 1.1467 1.1420 (0.4) USD/JPY 143.52 142.92 0.4 USD/INR 79.70 79.75 (0.1) USD/CNY 6.9946 6.9870 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. While 10Y yields in India and China closed higher, it closed lower in UK and Germany and remained unchanged in the US. Investors are cautious ahead of major central banks’ policy. BoJ and BoE will be announcing decisions this week. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps (7.23%), as 5Y OIS rates inched up further ahead of rate hike expectations. It is trading flat at 7.23% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
15-09-2022 16-09-2022 change in bps US 3.45 3.45 0 UK 3.17 3.14 (3) Germany 1.77 1.76 (1) Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.66 2.68 2 India 7.20 7.23 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
15-09-2022 16-09-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 5.73 5.83 10 Tbill-182 days 6.17 6.04 (13) Tbill-364 days 6.39 6.42 3 G-Sec 2Y 6.65 6.83 18 SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0 US SOFR 2.27 2.28 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 15-09-2022 16-09-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) 0 0.5 Reverse repo 0.8 0.8 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
14-09-2022 15-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (142.3) 24.5 166.8 Debt 30.4 109.8 79.4 Equity (172.7) (85.4) 87.4 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 152.6 928.3 775.7 Debt (107.6) 446.3 553.9 Equity 260.2 482.1 221.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices inched up by 0.6% to (US$ 91/bbl) offsetting risks to demand outlook amidst fears of global economic slowdown.
Fig 7 – Commodities
15-09-2022 16-09-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.8 91.4 0.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,665.1 1,675.1 0.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,848.8 7,869.0 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,214.0 3,184.1 (0.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,307.5 2,277.0 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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20 Sep 2022
Ahead of the key rate hike by Fed, China kept the benchmark rate unchanged today making a clear case of policy divergence across the globe. Last month, China had reduced rates in order to revive the economy, as it was battling resurgence of Covid- 19 and property crisis on its turf. The policy divergence has also heightened risk of capital outflow. BoJ is also expected to continue with the ultra-loose monetary policy, despite the core inflation accelerating to 8-year high. With key rate decisions anticipated from global central bank in the coming days, dollar remained steady. Oil prices edged up on the back of supply side challenges.
Global stocks ended mixed as focus shifts towards Fed’s upcoming policy meet with investors already bracing in for 75bps rate hike. While Asian indices ended lower; US indices closed in green. Sensex (0.5%) too ended higher led by gains in auto and IT stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian markets.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
16-09-2022 19-09-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,822 31,020 0.6 S & P 500 3,873 3,900 0.7 FTSE 7,282 7,237 (0.6) Nikkei 27,876 27,568 (1.1) Hang Seng 18,762 18,566 (1.0) Shanghai Comp 3,126 3,116 (0.3) Sensex 58,841 59,141 0.5 Nifty 17,531 17,622 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. EUR gained the most, while CNY and JPY fell the most. DXY ended flat as investors await slew of Central Bank decisions this week (Fed, BoE, BoJ). BoJ is expected to remain accommodative despite core CPI inching to near 8-year high, thus also putting pressure on Yen. INR closed flat despite pick up in oil prices. However, it is trading higher today; while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
16-09-2022 19-09-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0016 1.0024 0.1 GBP/USD 1.1420 1.1431 0.1 USD/JPY 142.92 143.21 (0.2) USD/INR 79.75 79.77 0 USD/CNY 6.9870 7.0050 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan and China (flat), other global yields inched up. Yields in Germany (+5bps) and US (+4bps) rose the most as US Fed is widely expected to increase policy rates by another 75bps this week. BoE is also expected to hike rates. Following global cues and rise in oil prices, India’s 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps to 7.24%. It is trading sharply higher at 7.29% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
16-09-2022 19-09-2022 change in bps US 3.45 3.49 4 UK 3.17 3.14 (3) Germany 1.76 1.81 5 Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.68 2.68 0 India 7.23 7.24 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
16-09-2022 19-09-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 5.83 5.75 (8) Tbill-182 days 6.04 6.09 5 Tbill-364 days 6.42 6.49 7 G-Sec 2Y 6.83 6.84 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0 US SOFR 2.28 2.27 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 16-09-2022 19-09-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0 0 0 Reverse repo 0.8 0.8 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
15-09-2022 16-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 24.5 303.0 278.5 Debt 109.8 738.5 628.7 Equity (85.4) (435.6) (350.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 152.6 928.3 775.7 Debt (107.6) 446.3 553.9 Equity 260.2 482.1 221.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices continued to move up by 0.7% to (US$ 92/bbl) as supply side concerns (OPEC+ Production was lower than the target level in Aug;22) outweighed subdued demand outlook on the back of higher interest rates.
Fig 7 – Commodities
16-09-2022 19-09-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 91.4 92.0 0.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,675.1 1,675.8 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,869.0 7,826.5 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,184.1 3,165.8 (0.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,277.0 2,251.0 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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21 Sep 2022
The Swedish Central Bank surprised the markets by hiking policy rates by 100bps in order to combat inflation and heightened the possibility of more hikes. This comes in the wake of aggressive monetary tightening expected (75bps) by Fed and other key Central Banks in the coming days. Against this, major currencies ended lower against dollar with US 10Y climbing upwards. Dollar index edged up to 20-year high. Oil prices dropped as fears of recession weighed in on demand outlook.
Apart from US indices, other global indices ended higher as investors braced themselves for the Fed rate hike which has already been priced in by the market (75bps). Amongst other indices, Hang Seng (1.2%) surged the most. Sensex too ended in green led by gains in consumer durable and auto stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian markets.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-09-2022 20-09-2022 % change Dow Jones 31,020 30,706 (1.0) S & P 500 3,900 3,856 (1.1) FTSE 7,237 7,193 (0.6) Nikkei 27,568 27,688 0.4 Hang Seng 18,566 18,781 1.2 Shanghai Comp 3,116 3,122 0.2 Sensex 59,141 59,720 1.0 Nifty 17,622 17,816 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR (flat), other major currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.4% to hover near levels last seen in Jun’02, supported by rise in bond yields. EUR, GBP and JPY fell the most. Investors are bracing for 75bps rate hike by US Fed this week. INR closed flat as oil prices inched down. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-09-2022 20-09-2022 % change EUR/USD 1.0024 0.9971 (0.5) GBP/USD 1.1431 1.1381 (0.4) USD/JPY 143.21 143.75 (0.4) USD/INR 79.77 79.76 0 USD/CNY 7.0050 7.0183 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (flat) and China (lower), other global yields inched up. Yields in UK, Germany and US (highest since 2011) rose the most. Short-term (2Y) yields which are more sensitive to policy rate hikes, were also trading at over decade high levels. Investors await Fed’s rate decision and economic forecasts. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps to 7.26%. It is trading further higher at 7.30% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-09-2022 20-09-2022 change in bps US 3.49 3.56 7 UK 3.14 3.29 15 Germany 1.81 1.93 12 Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.68 2.66 (2) India 7.24 7.26 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-09-2022 20-09-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 5.75 5.78 3 Tbill-182 days 6.09 6.16 7 Tbill-364 days 6.49 6.54 5 G-Sec 2Y 6.84 6.89 5 SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0 US SOFR 2.27 2.27 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 19-09-2022 20-09-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0 0.2 0 Reverse repo 0.8 0.8 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
16-09-2022 19-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 303.0 91.8 (211.1) Debt 738.5 (0.1) (738.6) Equity (435.6) 91.9 527.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 152.6 928.3 775.7 Debt (107.6) 446.3 553.9 Equity 260.2 482.1 221.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices declined by 1.5% to (US$ 91/bbl) ahead of anticipated Fed rate hike and amidst subdued demand outlook. Gold price retreated by 0.7%.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-09-2022 20-09-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 92.0 90.6 (1.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,675.8 1,664.9 (0.7) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,826.5 7,826.0 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,165.8 3,144.3 (0.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,251.0 2,245.5 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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22 Sep 2022
US Fed delivered 3rd consecutive rate hike (highest since CY08) after it raised the rates by 75bps hike to a new target range of 3%-3.25%. There is expectation of more rate hikes in the coming months, with median projections for federal funds rate now expected at 4.4% in CY22. As per the dot plot, Fed has signalled more rate hike with a target range of 4.75%-5% in CY23. Median projection for real GDP and core PCE inflation stands at 0.2% (1.7% June projection) and 4.5% (4.3% June projection) respectively for CY22. Dollar index rallied, while oil prices declined. Global equity indices also took a beating. After Fed, BoJ today continued with its ultra-loose monetary policy, by keeping rates on hold. Rate decisions from BoE, Norway and Switzerland are also awaited in the coming days.
Except FTSE, other global indices ended lower. US Fed raised rates, in line with expectation for third time in a row signalling it is ready to fight inflation. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng (1.8%) dropped the most followed by Dow jones (1.7%). Sensex (0.4%) too ended in red and was dragged down by losses in power and capital goods stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian markets.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-09-2022 21-09-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,706 30,184 (1.7) S & P 500 3,856 3,790 (1.7) FTSE 7,193 7,238 0.6 Nikkei 27,688 27,313 (1.4) Hang Seng 18,781 18,445 (1.8) Shanghai Comp 3,122 3,117 (0.2) Sensex 59,720 59,457 (0.4) Nifty 17,816 17,718 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies fell as Fed delivered a 75bps rate hike in its latest policy meeting. EUR (near 20-year low) and GBP fell the most. DXY was up by 0.4% and remains at a level more than two decade high. Following global cues, INR also fell by 0.3%. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-09-2022 21-09-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9971 0.9837 (1.3) GBP/USD 1.1381 1.1270 (1.0) USD/JPY 143.75 144.06 (0.2) USD/INR 79.76 79.98 (0.3) USD/CNY 7.0183 7.0502 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (flat) and UK (higher), other global yields closed lower. 10Y yields in US and Germany fell by 3bps each. With Fed maintaining its aggressive rate hike stance there has been increased pressure on US 2Y yields, leading to inverted yield curve. Thus, signalling risks to economic recession. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps to 7.23%, as oil prices inched down. However, following Fed’s decision, it is trading sharply higher at 7.32% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-09-2022 21-09-2022 change in bps US 3.56 3.53 (3) UK 3.29 3.31 2 Germany 1.93 1.89 (3) Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.66 2.64 (2) India 7.26 7.23 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-09-2022 21-09-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 5.78 5.87 9 Tbill-182 days 6.16 6.37 21 Tbill-364 days 6.54 6.63 9 G-Sec 2Y 6.89 6.89 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0 US SOFR 2.27 2.26 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 20-09-2022 21-09-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.2 0.1 (0.1) Reverse repo 0.8 0.8 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-09-2022 20-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 91.8 195.3 103.5 Debt (0.1) (31.1) (31.0) Equity 91.9 226.4 134.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 152.6 928.3 775.7 Debt (107.6) 446.3 553.9 Equity 260.2 482.1 221.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices continued to slip further to (US$ 90/bbl) after Fed delivered another rate hike to quell inflation. There were also concerns of weak demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-09-2022 21-09-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.6 89.8 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,664.9 1,673.9 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,826.0 7,749.0 (1.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,144.3 3,112.0 (1.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,245.5 2,202.5 (1.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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23 Sep 2022
US Fed delivered 3rd consecutive rate hike (highest since CY08) after it raised the rates by 75bps hike to a new target range of 3%-3.25%. There is expectation of more rate hikes in the coming months, with median projections for federal funds rate now expected at 4.4% in CY22. As per the dot plot, Fed has signalled more rate hike with a target range of 4.75%-5% in CY23. Median projection for real GDP and core PCE inflation stands at 0.2% (1.7% June projection) and 4.5% (4.3% June projection) respectively for CY22. Dollar index rallied, while oil prices declined. Global equity indices also took a beating. After Fed, BoJ today continued with its ultra-loose monetary policy, by keeping rates on hold. Rate decisions from BoE, Norway and Switzerland are also awaited in the coming days.
Except FTSE, other global indices ended lower. US Fed raised rates, in line with expectation for third time in a row signalling it is ready to fight inflation. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng (1.8%) dropped the most followed by Dow jones (1.7%). Sensex (0.4%) too ended in red and was dragged down by losses in power and capital goods stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian markets.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-09-2022 22-09-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,184 30,077 (0.4) S & P 500 3,790 3,758 (0.8) FTSE 7,238 7,160 (1.1) Nikkei 27,313 27,154 (0.6) Hang Seng 18,445 18,148 (1.6) Shanghai Comp 3,117 3,109 (0.3) Sensex 59,457 59,120 (0.6) Nifty 17,718 17,630 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies fell as Fed delivered a 75bps rate hike in its latest policy meeting. EUR (near 20-year low) and GBP fell the most. DXY was up by 0.4% and remains at a level more than two decade high. Following global cues, INR also fell by 0.3%. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-09-2022 22-09-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9837 0.9836 0 GBP/USD 1.1270 1.1261 (0.1) USD/JPY 144.06 142.39 1.2 USD/INR 79.98 80.87 (1.1) USD/CNY 7.0502 7.0781 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (flat) and UK (higher), other global yields closed lower. 10Y yields in US and Germany fell by 3bps each. With Fed maintaining its aggressive rate hike stance there has been increased pressure on US 2Y yields, leading to inverted yield curve. Thus, signalling risks to economic recession. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps to 7.23%, as oil prices inched down. However, following Fed’s decision, it is trading sharply higher at 7.32% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-09-2022 22-09-2022 change in bps US 3.53 3.71 18 UK 3.31 3.50 18 Germany 1.89 1.97 7 Japan 0.26 0.24 (2) China 2.64 2.65 1 India 7.23 7.31 8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-09-2022 22-09-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 5.87 5.86 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.37 6.39 2 Tbill-364 days 6.63 6.70 7 G-Sec 2Y 6.89 7.00 11 SONIA int rate benchmark 1.69 1.69 0 US SOFR 2.26 2.25 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 21-09-2022 22-09-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 (0.3) (0.4) Reverse repo 0.8 0.8 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-09-2022 21-09-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 195.3 (167.3) (362.6) Debt (31.1) (132.4) (101.3) Equity 226.4 (34.9) (261.3) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 152.6 928.3 775.7 Debt (107.6) 446.3 553.9 Equity 260.2 482.1 221.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices continued to slip further to (US$ 90/bbl) after Fed delivered another rate hike to quell inflation. There were also concerns of weak demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-09-2022 22-09-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 89.8 90.5 0.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,673.9 1,671.2 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,749.0 7,739.0 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,112.0 3,122.3 0.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,202.5 2,228.5 1.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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