Economic Weekly Wrap
19 June 2023 - 23 June 2023
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19 June 2023
Global Central Bank continued to remain divergent with Bank of Japan sticking to its ultra-easy monetary policy. They have signalled the possibility to ‘patiently’ continue with the same policy with focus on economic recovery. Any rate hikes have currently been ruled out even as inflation climbs up. This comes in the wake of ECB hiking rates to a 22-year high and hinted of more tightening in order to counter elevated inflation. On the other hand, US Fed kept policy rates on hold during the week, breaking away from the streak of 10 consecutive rate hike. All eyes will now be on BoE with higher expectation of rate hikes and ahead of CPI data release.
Except US, global indices ended higher. US stocks fell amidst comments from Fed officials such as Christopher Waller and Thomas Barkin, who spoke of stubbornly high core inflation. Thus signalling that rate hike cycle might continue. Amongst other indices, Asian stocks rose the most, as BoJ signalled more stimulus might be forthcoming. In India, Sensex rose by 0.7% led by banking and capital goods stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading lower, eyeing US Secretary of State’s visit in China.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
15-06-2023 16-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,408 34,299 (0.3) S & P 500 4,426 4,410 (0.4) FTSE 7,628 7,643 0.2 Nikkei 33,485 33,706 0.7 Hang Seng 19,829 20,040 1.1 Shanghai Comp 3,253 3,273 0.6 Sensex 62,918 63,385 0.7 Nifty 18,688 18,826 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. GBP rose by 0.3% ahead of CPI release and greater likelihood of more rate hikes in the upcoming monetary policy meet. Yen slipped by 1.1% after BoJ continued with its ultra-low interest rate policy. DXY inched up by 0.1%. INR depreciated by 0.3% as oil prices continue to edge up. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
15-06-2023 16-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0945 1.0937 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2784 1.2817 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.29 141.82 (1.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.18 81.94 0.3 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1210 7.1269 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose by 4bps amidst hawkish comments from Fed officials. Even UK’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps as market is expecting 25bps hike in BoE’s next policy. Japan’s 10Y yield on the other hand, fell by 2bps following its dovish policy. India’s 10Y yield closed flat. Cut off yield for the 2033 security inched up by 6bps. It is trading at 7.03%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
15-06-2023 16-06-2023 change in bps US 3.72 3.76 4 UK 4.38 4.41 3 Germany 2.50 2.47 (3) Japan 0.43 0.41 (2) China 2.67 2.68 1 India 7.04 7.04 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
15-06-2023 16-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.72 6.75 3 Tbill-182 days 6.88 6.89 1 Tbill-364 days 6.89 6.89 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.96 6.96 0 India OIS-2M 6.62 6.62 0 India OIS-9M 6.65 6.65 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.06 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 15-06-2023 16-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.6) (0.9) 0.7 Reverse repo 0.5 0 (0.5) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
14-06-2023 15-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 223.8 348.0 124.2 Debt (2.5) (51.3) (48.8) Equity 226.3 399.3 173.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,084.3 1,733.0 (351.3) Debt 548.1 1,742.7 1,194.6 Equity 1,536.2 (9.7) (1,545.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 12th and 13th Jun 2023
Oil prices rose by 1.2% led by supply cuts from OPEC+.
Fig 7 – Commodities
15-06-2023 16-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.7 76.6 1.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,958.0 1,958.0 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,556.0 8,555.0 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,480.5 2,477.3 (0.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,249.5 2,271.0 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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20 June 2023
Following 10bps cut in 1Y Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) by PBOC last week, now 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) have also been reduced by 10bps (est.: 15bps cut). These decisions have been taken to spur weakening economic momentum and statements by policymakers reflect that more stimulus measures may be announced soon. Markets are expecting RRR cut to boost credit growth. On the other hand in Australia, RBA’s minutes show that policymakers are concerned about stubborn core inflation and rising pressure in wage and housing inflation. This week, BoE’ rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony will shed more light on future trajectory of rates.
Global indices, except US (closed), were off to a slow start, with Nikkei and FTSE falling the most. In UK, chemicals and constructions stocks dragged the index down. Investors await Fed Chair testimony and rate decision by BoE this week. In India, Sensex fell by 0.3% led by power, realty and banking stocks. It is trading further lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
16-06-2023 19-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,408 34,299 (0.3) S & P 500 4,426 4,410 (0.4) FTSE 7,643 7,588 (0.7) Nikkei 33,706 33,370 (1.0) Hang Seng 20,040 19,913 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,273 3,256 (0.5) Sensex 63,385 63,168 (0.3) Nifty 18,826 18,755 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR (flat), other global currencies closed lower. CNY and GBP fell the most. Investors in UK are expecting hawkish policy tone by BoE and a 25bps hike this week. Yen slipped further by 0.2% owing to BoJ’s divergent monetary policy stance. DXY inched up by 0.3%. INR closed flat, even as oil prices inched up. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
16-06-2023 19-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0937 1.0921 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2817 1.2792 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 141.82 141.98 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.94 81.94 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1269 7.1634 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (lower), other global yields inched up. 10Y yield in UK (+8bps) and Germany (+4bps) rose the most as central banks in Europe continue to remain hawkish. BoE is expected to hike rates this month and 1-2 more rate hikes are pegged for this year. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony is also awaited to gauge Fed’s rate trajectory. Following global cues and increase in oil prices, India’s 10Y yield was up by 2bps to 7.06%. It is trading broadly stable today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
16-06-2023 19-06-2023 change in bps US 3.72 3.76 4 UK 4.41 4.49 8 Germany 2.47 2.52 4 Japan 0.41 0.40 (1) China 2.68 2.70 2 India 7.04 7.06 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
16-06-2023 19-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.75 6.76 1 Tbill-182 days 6.89 6.87 (2) Tbill-364 days 6.89 6.88 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.96 6.97 1 India OIS-2M 6.62 6.61 (1) India OIS-9M 6.65 6.66 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.06 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 16-06-2023 19-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.9) (0.2) 0.7 Reverse repo 0 0.2 0.2 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
15-06-2023 16-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 348.0 156.0 (192.0) Debt (51.3) 133.8 185.2 Equity 399.3 22.1 (377.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,733.0 (387.7) (2,120.7) Debt 1,742.7 121.2 (1,621.5) Equity (9.7) (508.9) (499.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 12th and 13th Jun 2023
Oil prices rose by 1.2% as China’s PBOC initiated more monetary policy stimulus.
Fig 7 – Commodities
16-06-2023 19-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.7 76.6 1.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,958.0 1,958.0 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,556.0 8,555.0 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,480.5 2,477.3 (0.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,249.5 2,271.0 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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21 June 2023
US housing starts jumped sharply in May’23 to 1.63mn units (+21.7% MoM) from 1.34mn units in Apr’23. This 291k increase was the highest since Jan’90, and suggests that most buyers took advantage of dip in 30Y-fixed mortgaged rate (6.77% versus peak of 7% in Nov’22). Investors now await for more cues from Fed Chair’s testimony today, as there is increased probability of Fed keeping the rates elevated for long to cool the economy and inflation down. Further adding to the risks of global growth, forecasts by China’s National Petroleum’s research arm suggests that demand from China will remain muted. PBOC’s recent measures to spur growth are also considered to be minimal and more fiscal stimulus is expected.
Barring markets in Asia (higher), other global indices fell, as last week’s market rally took a breather. Fed’s potential to remain aggressive on rates and probability of growth slow down hampered investor sentiments in the US and Europe. In India, Sensex was up by 0.3% led by power, auto and tech stocks. It is trading further higher today, while Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-06-2023 20-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,299 34,054 (0.7) S & P 500 4,410 4,389 (0.5) FTSE 7,588 7,569 (0.3) Nikkei 33,370 33,389 0.1 Hang Seng 19,913 19,607 (1.5) Shanghai Comp 3,256 3,240 (0.5) Sensex 63,168 63,328 0.3 Nifty 18,755 18,817 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR (flat), JPY (higher), other global currencies closed lower. DXY ended flat, while JPY gained, as traders digest US housing starts data and await Fed Chair Powell’s remarks this week. GBP fell awaiting CPI data and BoE rate decision. INR was down by 0.2%. It is trading a tad higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-06-2023 20-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0921 1.0918 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2792 1.2765 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 141.98 141.47 0.4 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 81.94 82.12 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1634 7.1809 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except India (flat), other global yields fell sharply. 10Y yield in UK (-16bps), Germany (-11bps) and US (-4bps) fell as investors are hoping for more guidance on Fed’s interest rate trajectory in Fed Chair’s testimony today. Weakness in global demand (led by China) is also weighing on global growth concerns. India’s 10Y yield closed flat, as oil prices inched down. It is trading a tad lower at 7.05% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-06-2023 20-06-2023 change in bps US 3.76 3.72 (4) UK 4.49 4.34 (16) Germany 2.52 2.41 (11) Japan 0.40 0.39 (1) China 2.70 2.68 (2) India 7.06 7.06 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-06-2023 20-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.76 6.77 1 Tbill-182 days 6.87 6.87 0 Tbill-364 days 6.88 6.86 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.97 6.98 1 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.61 0 India OIS-9M 6.66 6.67 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 19-06-2023 20-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.2 0.9 0.7 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
16-06-2023 19-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 156.0 185.7 29.8 Debt 133.8 (28.6) (162.4) Equity 22.1 214.3 192.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,733.0 (387.7) (2,120.7) Debt 1,742.7 121.2 (1,621.5) Equity (9.7) (508.9) (499.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 12th and 13th Jun 2023
Oil prices fell by 0.2%, following forecasts of weak demand from China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-06-2023 20-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.1 75.9 (0.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,950.5 1,936.4 (0.7) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,546.0 8,552.3 0.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,421.5 2,342.5 (3.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,241.0 2,230.0 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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22 June 2023
The much awaited Fed Chair Powell’s testimony was in line with markets’ expectations. Powell reiterated Fed’s hawkish stance and the need for 2 more rate hikes until the end of CY23, in order to bring inflation within the target on a durable basis. For this, the Chair admitted that economic activity will have to be pushed to below trend growth. Labour market still remains tight while showing some signs of loosening. However, market analysts continue to price in less than 2 rate hikes as US economy is expected to cool down in H2CY23, and as a result, DXY fell and US 10Y yield remained unchanged. In UK, on the other hand, inflation is not showing signs of ebbing, which is expected to put further pressure on BoE to hike rates.
Barring markets in Japan and India (higher), other global indices closed lower, led by decline in Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng. Markets in US too fell as Fed Chair reiterated that more rate hikes are forthcoming in order to push growth below trend rates. In India, Sensex rose by 0.3%, led by power and oil & gas stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,054 33,952 (0.3) S & P 500 4,389 4,366 (0.5) FTSE 7,569 7,559 (0.1) Nikkei 33,389 33,575 0.6 Hang Seng 19,607 19,218 (2.0) Shanghai Comp 3,240 3,198 (1.3) Sensex 63,328 63,523 0.3 Nifty 18,817 18,857 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. While EUR rose the most, JPY declined sharply. DXY was down by 0.5%, as Fed Chair’s testimony was in line with expectations, however markets are anticipating a slowdown in economy which will render the need for 2 more rate hikes. INR was up by 0.1%. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0918 1.0986 0.6 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2765 1.2770 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 141.47 141.88 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.12 82.04 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1809 7.1794 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 7bps as CPI data rose more than expected on a sequential as well as on YoY basis. Even retail price index firmed up pointing to robust demand conditions. US 10Y yield closed stable as Fed President’s message brought in no new shocks. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps. It is trading at 7.06% today ahead of release of RBI’s minutes.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 change in bps US 3.72 3.72 0 UK 4.34 4.41 7 Germany 2.41 2.44 3 Japan 0.39 0.38 (1) China 2.68 2.67 0 India 7.06 7.07 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.77 6.71 (6) Tbill-182 days 6.87 6.89 2 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.89 3 G-Sec 2Y 6.98 6.98 0 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.61 0 India OIS-9M 6.67 6.67 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 20-06-2023 21-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.3) (0.3) 0 Reverse repo 0.9 0.9 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-06-2023 20-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 185.7 667.9 482.2 Debt (28.6) (46.5) (18.0) Equity 214.3 714.4 500.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,108.6 2,462.5 353.9 Debt 1,214.7 2,529.2 1,314.5 Equity 894.0 (66.7) (960.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 12th and 13th Jun 2023
Oil prices rose by 1.6%, following surprise (-1.2mn barrels versus est.: 300k barrels) decline in US crude oil stocks.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.9 77.1 1.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,936.4 1,932.6 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,552.3 8,606.3 0.6 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,342.5 2,406.5 2.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,230.0 2,223.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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23 June 2023
BoE surprised the markets with a higher (+50bps) than anticipated (+25bps) rate hike in its Jun’23 policy meeting, stating “persistence in inflation process, tight labour market and resilience in demand” as the rationale. Central Bank of Switzerland also raised rates by 25bps and commented that its policy is still not “tight enough”. These banks join Fed’s hawkish stance. Domestically also, RBI’s minutes show that the central bank is worried about the impact of monsoon on inflation. In US, labour market is showing slight signs of cooling down as 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (week ending 17 Jun) rose to 256k (highest since Nov’21) from 247k last week). Existing home sales however continue to increase (+0.2% MoM).
Barring markets in Japan and India (higher), other global indices closed lower, led by decline in Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng. Markets in US too fell as Fed Chair reiterated that more rate hikes are forthcoming in order to push growth below trend rates. In India, Sensex rose by 0.3%, led by power and oil & gas stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,054 33,952 (0.3) S & P 500 4,389 4,366 (0.5) FTSE 7,569 7,559 (0.1) Nikkei 33,389 33,575 0.6 Hang Seng 19,607 19,218 (2.0) Shanghai Comp 3,240 3,198 (1.3) Sensex 63,328 63,523 0.3 Nifty 18,817 18,857 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Major global currencies ended lower. JPY and EUR declined the most. DXY was up by 0.3% supported by safe haven demand. US data (homes sales) and hawkish commentary by other central banks as well, has reignited global growth concerns. INR was up by 0.1%, as oil prices fell. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0918 1.0986 0.6 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2765 1.2770 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 141.47 141.88 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.12 82.04 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1809 7.1794 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. 10Y yields in US and Germany rose the most. Investors reacted to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and continued increase in interest rates by other major central banks. UK saw steepening of the yield curve with short-term yields inching up and longer end declining. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, as RBI’s minutes showed that members are worried about the impact of monsoon. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 change in bps US 3.72 3.72 0 UK 4.34 4.41 7 Germany 2.41 2.44 3 Japan 0.39 0.38 (1) China 2.68 2.67 0 India 7.06 7.07 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.77 6.71 (6) Tbill-182 days 6.87 6.89 2 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.89 3 G-Sec 2Y 6.98 6.98 0 India OIS-2M 6.61 6.61 0 India OIS-9M 6.67 6.67 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 20-06-2023 21-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.3) (0.3) 0 Reverse repo 0.9 0.9 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-06-2023 20-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 185.7 667.9 482.2 Debt (28.6) (46.5) (18.0) Equity 214.3 714.4 500.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,108.6 2,462.5 353.9 Debt 1,214.7 2,529.2 1,314.5 Equity 894.0 (66.7) (960.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 12th and 13th Jun 2023
Oil prices fell by 3.9% as BoE shocker revived concerns over global demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-06-2023 21-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 75.9 77.1 1.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,936.4 1,932.6 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,552.3 8,606.3 0.6 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,342.5 2,406.5 2.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,230.0 2,223.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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