Economic Weekly Wrap
19 August 2024 - 23 August 2024

Global markets had a breather to some extent. A host of factors from pricing of risk amid volatility, underlying liquidity conditions to unwinding of carry trade; steered market sentiments. Among major macro releases, were US home starts data which showed some moderation. University of Michigan’s inflation expectation continued to remain sticky albeit some softening of recent inflation readings. Investors will be closely eyeing Fed Chair comments in the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, for cues on timing of cut. Swap traders are pricing in a percentage point cut by Fed in Sep’24. Elsewhere in UK, retail sales remained firm. On domestic front, government has reduced the windfall gains tax to Rs 2,100/tonne, in line with international crude price and fuel margins. In a separate release, the PLFS data showed unemployment rate has moderated to 6.6% in Q1FY25 from 6.7% in Q4FY24.

Barring UK, stocks elsewhere edged up. Global markets rallied amid expectations of a soft landing in the US, backed by strong macro data and softer inflation readings. Nikkei rose the most by 3.6%, led by gains in power and real estate sector. Sensex also rose by 1.7%, supported by global cues. Real estate and technology stocks gained the most. It is trading further higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were closed on 15th

 Except INR, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.5% following dovish comments from a key Fed official. JPY appreciated the most by 1.1%. INR closed flat despite softer dollar and lower oil prices. It is trading higher today, while Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda | Note: Indian markets were closed on 15th

 US 10Y yield softened by 3bps as recent inflation data rekindled hopes of monetary easing by Fed. UK’s 10Y yield closed stable as traders remained cautious assessing retail sales data. Japan’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps as expectations lingered over pause but not deflection from the rate hike path. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad. It is trading at 6.86% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were closed on 15th

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were closed on 15th

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 12 Aug and 13 Aug 2024

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Oil prices declined as weak macro data from China stoked demand concerns.

Global markets remained cautious ahead of speeches of major central bank officials. Expectation is getting intensified about Fed Chair’s hinting of an easier monetary conditions, going ahead. CME Fed watch tool has attached a probability of 75% for a 25bps cut in Sep’24, whose probability was just 50%, a week earlier. Elsewhere, ECB Governing Council member spoke of increasing risks to growth thus underlying the need for reinforcing policy adjustment. In China, PBOC signalled status quo in policy rate for an ‘extended period’ to ensure inflation falls sustainably within the target and also an indirect measure to protect profit margins of banks. On domestic front, RBI report highlighted that supply driven food price shocks can have spill-over effects, warranting a cautious monetary policy response.

Barring Nikkei, stocks elsewhere inched up. Expectations are building up over Fed Chair’s speech to throw some light on Sep’24 easing. Other Fed officials have also hinted at a similar outcome. All these factors are propelling equity indices worldwide. US stocks and Hang Seng have risen the most. Nikkei underwent some correction. Sensex closed flat. It is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.6% as market participants have incorporated some bit of easing by Fed in their reaction function. JPY appreciated the most by 0.7% followed by EUR. INR appreciated marginally supported by softening oil prices. It is trading flat today, while Asian currencies are trading lower.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Global yields traded in a thin range. US 10Y yield closed a tad lower awaiting cues from Fed Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. China’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps over lingering concerns surrounding weakening demand conditions in the economy. India’s 10Y yield closed flat and is trading at 6.86%.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 13 Aug and 14 Aug 2024

Oil prices moderated as supply concerns pacified with reports of increased production from Libya.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields showed some softening bias led by US as positions are unwinding ahead of Fed Chair’s speech. Fed minutes is also scheduled to be released. The undertone is crucial to absorb signals about future course of rate action. Fed Official (Michelle Bowman) also hinted that it would be appropriate to gradually start lowering rates, to avoid monetary policy becoming restrictive. In other macro releases, Eurozone inflation rose a tad higher than expectation by 2.6% (est.: 2.5%), albeit core remaining steady at 2.9%. In a separate report, Germany’s central bank flagged persistent pressure on inflation emanating from a steady wage growth. In Japan, exports rose less than expected by 10.3% (est.: 11.5%) and imports grew more than expected by 16.6% (est.: 14.6%), thus widening the trade deficit. On domestic front, Kharif acreage picked up led by cereals and pulses, which is going to be comforting on inflationary front, going ahead.

Barring Nikkei, stocks moderated. A cautious approach is seen ahead of Fed Chair’s speech. Technology stocks have also contributed to the downward rally. Nikkei inched up as expectations built up over some cues on currency and interest rate movement ahead of BoJ Governor’s testimony. Sensex inched up, led by banking stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies appreciated supported by a weaker dollar. DXY fell by 0.4%. JPY appreciated the most due to unwinding of positions followed by EUR as inflation data of the region showed some stickiness. INR appreciated marginally. It is trading lower today, while Asian currencies are trading higher.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Global yields edged down. US 10Y yield moderated considerably as expectations entrenched over easier monetary conditions. Even Germany’s 10Y yield softened as inflation data came in line with expectations. China’s 10Y yield closed stable awaiting monetary stimulus from PBOC. India’s 10Y yield closed a tad lower and is trading at 6.85% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 14 Aug and 16 Aug 2024

Oil prices inched down amidst built up in US crude stocks.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US Fed minutes reflected a dovish tone with majority of FOMC members acknowledging that easier monetary policy condition is warranted in the wake of recent softening of inflation data. FOMC members also noted that some strain in labour market conditions might be building up. To complement that, in a separate release, a preliminary estimate of Bureau of Labour Statistics noted downward revision (818K for 12-months through Mar) of number of workers on payroll. Notably, this was the steepest revision since CY09. Indeed, this has strengthened the case of Fed embarking on rate cut cycle sooner. In other macro releases, Japan’s flash PMI indicated recovery driven by services activity, while manufacturing is marginally trailing behind. In UK, public sector borrowing in Jul outweighed expectations. On domestic front, EPFO data highlighted slight moderation in new formal jobs.

Global stocks closed mixed. Asian stocks moderated, led by liquidity dynamics. Market jitters also prevailed as investors monitored Fed minutes and anticipated Fed Chair’s speech and BoJ Governor’s testimony. Hang Seng fell the most, followed by Shanghai Comp. US stocks inched up, supported by a technology-driven rally. Sensex rose a tad, led by consumer durables stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with Asian stocks (supported by Bank of Korea’s dovish tone).

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

DXY continued to soften and fell by 0.4%, as rate cut expectations solidified with data in hand. GBP appreciated the most as stickier public sector borrowing raised concerns of higher rates. INR depreciated, led by a moderation in debt flows from FII. It is trading lower today, in line with Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Global yields softened as sentiments reigned in over the anticipated start of a rate cut cycle by the Fed in September 2024. The 10Y yields of Germany and the UK also followed the US in the downward rally. ECB Official Fabio Panetta also spoke of loosening monetary policy in the future. India’s 10Y yield closed stable and is trading at 6.85% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 19 Aug and 16 Aug 2024

Oil prices moderated, buoyed by weaker demand conditions.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Markets remained vigilant ahead of Fed Chair’s speech. Many officials (Boston and Philadelphia Fed Chief) acknowledged that Fed should be on the cusp of lowering rates albeit in a gradual manner. Now market dynamics will be contingent on the quantum of cut. Amongst major macro releases, flash global PMI readings showed manufacturing still trailing behind in Germany and US, while services activity holding up. In the US, jobless claims remained in line with estimates, inching up moderately compared to last week. Existing home picked up. Elsewhere, BoJ’s Governor remained cautiously hawkish. However, inflation readings of the region showed some stickiness for the month. On domestic front, RBI minutes reiterated that policy should be disinflationary as growth remains on strong footing.

Global indices ended mixed. Stocks in the US declined as macro data signalled a downturn in economic activity, with technology shares leading the decline. Stocks in Asia were broadly higher, except for China, where reports of fresh EU tariffs on Chinese EVs weighed on the Shanghai Composite. The Sensex gained, led by consumer durables and metal stocks, and is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies broadly depreciated. After declining for four straight sessions, the DXY rose by 0.5% ahead of the Fed Chair’s speech. Despite positive data (flash PMI), both EUR and GBP depreciated against the dollar. The INR was marginally weaker, tracking global cues and higher oil prices, but is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Global yields closed mixed. The UK’s 10Y yield rose at the sharpest pace as concerns over elevated borrowing capped yield. US and Germany’s 10Y yield also inched up as cautiousness prevailed ahead of speeches by major central bank officials. China’s 10Y yield softened amidst expectations of monetary easing. India’s 10Y yield closed stable and is trading at the same level today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 19 Aug and 20 Aug 2024

Oil prices edged up as bets of a Fed rate cut in Sep’24 solidified.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research