Economic Weekly Wrap
17 October 2022 - 21 October 2022
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17 Oct 2022
On the back of growing inflationary pressure (higher than expected US CPI), market analysts expect a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next policy meet. Fed officials will be commenting through this week and the same will be closely monitored. BoE governor has also warned of more rate hikes than anticipated. In China, the central bank for the second month in a row continued to maintain loose-monetary policy as it kept rates unchanged, with the objective to keep ample liquidity in the banking system. Dollar index continued to ascent further; gold prices eased.
Apart from US indices, other global indices ended higher. FTSE closed in green after UK government made a U-turn on the fiscal policy measure. US indices ended in red on the back of hotter than expected US CPI, stoking fears of additional rate hikes by Fed. On the other hand, domestic market gained 1.2% led by banking and IT stocks. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
13-10-2022 14-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,039 29,635 (1.3) S & P 500 3,670 3,583 (2.4) FTSE 6,850 6,859 0.1 Nikkei 26,237 27,091 3.3 Hang Seng 16,389 16,588 1.2 Shanghai Comp 3,016 3,072 1.8 Sensex 57,235 57,920 1.2 Nifty 17,014 17,186 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR (flat), other global currencies closed lower. DXY continues to inch higher and rose by 0.8%. Higher than expected inflation in the US has revived fears of continued aggressive rate hikes by Fed. This is estimated to dent global growth prospects. GBP and Yen fell the most. Investors await to see the impact of UK’s monetary and fiscal policy decisions, and are hoping BoJ will intervene to stem Yen’s decline. INR is trading lower today, in line with Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
13-10-2022 14-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9776 0.9722 (0.6) GBP/USD 1.1326 1.1172 (1.4) USD/JPY 147.12 148.67 (1.0) USD/INR 82.35 82.34 0.0 USD/CNY 7.1695 7.1925 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (flat) and China (lower), other major global yields closed higher. UK (10bps), US (7bps) and Germany’s (6bps) 10Y yields rose the most. BoE’s conclusion of bond-buying program and government’s reversal of cut in high income bracket taxes impacted yields in the UK. Additionally, stubbornly high inflation in the US and its impact on retail sales also impacted global investor sentiments. Tracking global cues, India’s 10Y yield too rose by 4bps. However, it is trading lower at 7.42% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-10-2022 14-10-2022 change in bps US 3.94 4.02 7 UK 4.20 4.34 14 Germany 2.29 2.35 6 Japan 0.25 0.25 0 China 2.73 2.70 (3) India 7.42 7.47 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
13-10-2022 14-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.30 6.22 (8) Tbill-182 days 6.70 6.62 (8) Tbill-364 days 6.97 6.98 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.18 7.18 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.19 2.19 0 US SOFR 3.04 3.04 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 13-10-2022 14-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.0 0.0 0 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
12-10-2022 13-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (29.6) (137.9) (108.3) Debt 13.8 (3.6) (17.4) Equity (43.4) (134.3) (90.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,867.3 (576.9) (2,444.1) Debt (448.5) 484.9 933.4 Equity 2,315.8 (1,061.8) (3,377.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International oil prices declined by 3.1% to US$ 91.6/bbl as concerns of slowdown in global demand accelerated on the back of recession fears.
Fig 7 – Commodities
13-10-2022 14-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 94.6 91.6 (3.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,666.4 1,644.5 (1.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,665.5 7,652.8 (0.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,952.3 2,980.5 1.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,359.5 2,306.0 (2.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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18 Oct 2022
UK Government’s reversal of previous fiscal policy measures and early signs of markets bottoming out, cheered investors and pushed the indices in green. Dollar index softened and lifted gold prices. Oil prices oscillated through the day and remained unchanged on the back of dip in dollar index and China’s loose monetary policy. RBA in its minutes highlighted the risk of rate hike is ‘finely balanced’ and more hikes are likely. Markets will track the following data prints scheduled to be released today, Germany ZEW index and US industrial production.
Apart from Nikkei, other global indices started the week on optimistic note with indices trading in green with the beginning of the corporate earnings season. UK Government U-turn further brightened prospects for investors. Sensex continued to climb higher (0.8%) led by gains in power and banking stocks. It is trading further higher today taking cues from other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
14-10-2022 17-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 29,635 30,186 1.9 S & P 500 3,583 3,678 2.6 FTSE 6,859 6,920 0.9 Nikkei 27,091 26,776 (1.2) Hang Seng 16,588 16,613 0.2 Shanghai Comp 3,072 3,085 0.4 Sensex 57,920 58,411 0.8 Nifty 17,186 17,312 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Asian currencies, other currencies closed higher. GBP (+1.7%) and EUR (+1.2%) recorded the most gains. DXY fell by 1.1%. Fiscal U-turn in the UK supported European currencies and pushed the US dollar lower. INR closed flat, while JPY and CNY fell against the dollar. INR is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
14-10-2022 17-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9722 0.9841 1.2 GBP/USD 1.1172 1.1358 1.7 USD/JPY 148.67 149.04 (0.2) USD/INR 82.34 82.36 0 USD/CNY 7.1925 7.1965 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Led by UK government’s reversal of most of its fiscal policies announced in the “mini budget”, 10Y yields in UK fell sharply by 36bps. Even yields in Germany (8bps) and US (1bps) eased. Further, investor sentiment was also supported by President Biden’s indication to release more oil from SPR to curtail rising oil prices, which will help support global inflation. Following global cues and steady oil prices, India’s 10Y yield too fell by 8bps. It is trading further lower at 7.38% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
14-10-2022 17-10-2022 change in bps US 4.02 4.01 (1) UK 4.34 3.98 (36) Germany 2.35 2.27 (8) Japan 0.25 0.26 0 China 2.70 2.70 0 India 7.47 7.41 (6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
14-10-2022 17-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.22 6.24 2 Tbill-182 days 6.62 6.60 (2) Tbill-364 days 6.98 6.93 (5) G-Sec 2Y 7.22 7.03 (19) SONIA int rate benchmark 2.19 2.18 0 US SOFR 3.04 3.04 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 14-10-2022 17-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
13-10-2022 14-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (137.9) (137.0) 0.9 Debt (3.6) (74.4) (70.9) Equity (134.3) (62.6) 71.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,867.3 (576.9) (2,444.1) Debt (448.5) 484.9 933.4 Equity 2,315.8 (1,061.8) (3,377.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International oil prices remained steady and was provided support by weaker dollar. Furthermore, China’s loose monetary policy has also given support to oil prices.
Fig 7 – Commodities
14-10-2022 17-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 91.6 91.6 0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,644.5 1,650.1 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,652.8 7,642.5 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,980.5 2,889.0 (3.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,306.0 2,229.0 (3.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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19 Oct 2022
Even as concerns of slowdown in Germany kept markets on the edge, the investor sentiment index (ZEW) turned out to be less pessimistic than anticipated (-59.2 from -61.2 in Sep’22). The government has also decided to provide a one-off payment in order to support household and small businesses, struggling due to energy crisis. In US, factory production improved in Sep’22 while the market sentiment for US home builder dropped for 10th consecutive month, raising concerns over divergent impact from US Fed rate hike decision on the economy. In India, Government raised the MSP of Rabi Crops by 2-9%. The impact on inflation remains to be seen.
Barring Shanghai Comp, other global indices ended in green aided by corporate earnings report from US. Investors are awaiting the release of UK CPI which might further add pressure on BoE to hike rates. Sensex strengthened further led by gains in continued to climb higher (0.8%) led by gains in capital goods and real estate stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
17-10-2022 18-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,186 30,524 1.1 S & P 500 3,678 3,720 1.1 FTSE 6,920 6,937 0.2 Nikkei 26,776 27,156 1.4 Hang Seng 16,613 16,915 1.8 Shanghai Comp 3,085 3,081 (0.1) Sensex 58,411 58,961 0.9 Nifty 17,312 17,487 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR (higher) and INR (flat), other currencies closed lower. GBP and JPY fell the most. DXY rose by 0.1%, driven by gains in the stock market. BoJ’s policy divergence from other major central banks has led to steep falls in Yen and investors await central bank intervention to support the currency. INR closed flat, however it is trading marginally higher today, while other Asian currencies are closing mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
17-10-2022 18-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9841 0.9858 0.2 GBP/USD 1.1358 1.1320 (0.3) USD/JPY 149.04 149.26 (0.1) USD/INR 82.36 82.36 0 USD/CNY 7.1965 7.2023 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed, with UK’s 10Y yield continuing to decline (3bps), US 10Y yield closing flat and Germany’s 10Y yield up by 2bps. Investors await UK CPI data. Postponement of release of economic data by China is also being read as a sign sharp slowdown in economy, thus raising fears of weak global demand. India’s 10Y yield inched up by 1bps, as hike in MSP for Rabi crops stoked inflation fears. However, it is trading lower at 7.41% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-10-2022 18-10-2022 change in bps US 4.01 4.01 0 UK 3.98 3.95 (3) Germany 2.27 2.29 2 Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.70 2.70 0 India 7.41 7.43 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
17-10-2022 18-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.24 6.35 11 Tbill-182 days 6.60 6.67 7 Tbill-364 days 6.93 6.85 (8) G-Sec 2Y 7.03 7.08 5 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.18 2.18 0 US SOFR 3.04 3.05 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 17-10-2022 18-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
14-10-2022 17-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (137.0) 59.5 196.5 Debt (74.4) 81.8 156.3 Equity (62.6) (22.3) 40.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,867.3 (576.9) (2,444.1) Debt (448.5) 484.9 933.4 Equity 2,315.8 (1,061.8) (3,377.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International oil prices edged lower by 1.7% to US$ 90/bbl led by higher supply of US crude oil stocks and subdued demand from China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
17-10-2022 18-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 91.6 90.0 (1.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,650.1 1,652.2 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 7,642.5 7,483.0 (2.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,889.0 2,879.3 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,229.0 2,193.0 (1.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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20 Oct 2022
US Fed in the recently released ‘Beige Book’ noted that the economy has expanded modestly but the conditions remained varied by districts. It also noted that US business are turning more pessimistic amidst inflation and high interest rate. Analyst are already anticipating 75bps rate hike in the coming policy meet. The rate hike is also on cards by ECB as Euro Area inflation climbed to 9.9% in Sep’22 (+9.1% in Aug’22). In currency market, dollar firmed up and pushed gold prices lower. Rupee opened lower today as it touched the 83/US$ mark.
Global indices ended mixed as fears of global economic slowdown tossed investor’s risk appetite. US indices lost ground and ended in red, after gaining for two-day straight. Hang Seng dropped the most and was dragged down by losses in technology stocks. Sensex continued to climb further (0.2%) led by gains in real estate stocks. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
18-10-2022 19-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,524 30,424 (0.3) S & P 500 3,720 3,695 (0.7) FTSE 6,937 6,925 (0.2) Nikkei 27,156 27,257 0.4 Hang Seng 16,915 16,511 (2.4) Shanghai Comp 3,081 3,044 (1.2) Sensex 58,961 59,107 0.2 Nifty 17,487 17,512 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies fell sharply against the dollar, and DXY rose by 0.8% as risk appetite of investors declined. Higher than expected inflation data in UK and Eurozone reaffirmed fears that Central Banks will maintain their aggressive stance. Weaker than expected employment gains in Australia also showed impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening. INR too fell by 0.8%, and is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
18-10-2022 19-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9858 0.9773 (0.9) GBP/USD 1.1320 1.1219 (0.9) USD/JPY 149.26 149.90 (0.4) USD/INR 82.36 82.99 (0.8) USD/CNY 7.2023 7.2287 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring UK (lower) and Japan (flat), other global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by 13bps to reach levels near 14 year high. Germany’s 10Y yield too inched up by 9bps as red hot inflation in Eurozone stoked fears of further tightening by ECB. Further, despite weaker than expected housing starts data in the US, investors expect Fed to also continue hiking rates. India’s 10Y yield was up by 2bps, as oil prices rose, and is trading further higher at 7.5% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
18-10-2022 19-10-2022 change in bps US 4.01 4.13 13 UK 3.95 3.88 (7) Germany 2.29 2.38 9 Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.70 2.71 1 India 7.43 7.45 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
18-10-2022 19-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.35 6.33 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.67 6.73 6 Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.91 6 G-Sec 2Y 7.08 7.11 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.18 2.18 0 US SOFR 3.05 3.04 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 18-10-2022 19-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.3) (0.1) 0.2 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-10-2022 18-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 59.5 142.0 82.5 Debt 81.8 37.6 (44.2) Equity (22.3) 104.4 126.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (203.0) 2,262.9 2,465.9 Debt (1,576.2) 977.5 2,553.8 Equity 1,373.2 1,285.4 (87.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International oil prices rose by 2.6% to US$ 92/bbl led by concerns over tighter supply offsetting the news of US releasing more crude form its reserves and worries over uncertain demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
18-10-2022 19-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.0 92.4 2.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,652.2 1,629.4 (1.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,483.0 7,455.8 (0.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,879.3 2,924.3 1.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,193.0 2,170.5 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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21 Oct 2022
Concerns over aggressive rate hike by Fed and fears of recession kept markets on edge and pushed global yields higher. Investors also monitored political development in UK after the PM tendered her resignation which was largely anticipated by the markets. Japan’s core consumer inflation rose to 8-year high (3% In Sep’22) even as BoJ continues to maintain ultra-low rates to support economy. China’s equity market opened in green as the current government leader is expected to seal a 3rd 5-year term in a row.
Except FTSE and Sensex, other global indices ended lower on the back of hawkish comments by Fed officials. It raised prospects of much longer aggressive policy than was anticipated. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng dropped the most followed by Nikkei (0.9%). However, Sensex contended in green (0.2%) led by gains in oil & gas and power stocks. It is trading higher today in line while other Asian stocks are mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-10-2022 20-10-2022 % change Dow Jones 30,424 30,334 (0.3) S & P 500 3,695 3,666 (0.8) FTSE 6,925 6,944 0.3 Nikkei 27,257 27,007 (0.9) Hang Seng 16,511 16,280 (1.4) Shanghai Comp 3,044 3,035 (0.3) Sensex 59,107 59,203 0.2 Nifty 17,512 17,564 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY, other global currencies rose against the dollar. DXY fell marginally by 0.1%. Risk sentiment improved as US macro data (jobless claims and existing home sales) came in better than expected. INR and CNY gained the most. GBP gained by 0.1% following political developments in UK. However today, INR is trading lower, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-10-2022 20-10-2022 % change EUR/USD 0.9773 0.9786 0.1 GBP/USD 1.1219 1.1235 0.1 USD/JPY 149.90 150.15 (0.2) USD/INR 82.99 82.76 0.3 USD/CNY 7.2287 7.2145 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan (flat), other global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose further by 9bps to reach 4.23% as Philadelphia Fed president reaffirmed that US Fed will continue hiking rates to cool down the economy and bring inflation lower. UK and Germany’s yields were up by 3bps each as Germany’s PPI data shows that input prices continue to inch up, stoking fears of elevated CPI in the region. India’s 10Y yield was up by 3bps, following global cues and is trading further up at 7.51% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-10-2022 20-10-2022 change in bps US 4.13 4.23 9 UK 3.88 3.91 3 Germany 2.38 2.40 3 Japan 0.26 0.26 0 China 2.71 2.72 1 India 7.45 7.48 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-10-2022 20-10-2022 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.33 6.35 2 Tbill-182 days 6.73 6.72 (1) Tbill-364 days 6.91 6.92 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.11 7.11 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 2.18 2.18 0 US SOFR 3.04 3.04 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 19-10-2022 20-10-2022 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.1) 0.1 0.2 Reverse repo 0.6 0.6 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-10-2022 19-10-2022 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 142.0 (30.1) (172.1) Debt 37.6 16.1 (21.5) Equity 104.4 (46.2) (150.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (203.0) 2,262.9 2,465.9 Debt (1,576.2) 977.5 2,553.8 Equity 1,373.2 1,285.4 (87.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
International oil prices ended flat as concerns over elevated inflation was offset by possibility of renewed demand (China may loosen quarantine restrictions). Gold prices edged lower on the back of hawkish comments by Fed officials.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-10-2022 20-10-2022 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 92.4 92.4 0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,629.4 1,628.0 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 7,455.8 7,645.5 2.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,924.3 3,011.0 3.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,170.5 2,209.5 1.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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