Economic Weekly Wrap
11 December 2023 - 15 December 2023

US non-farm payroll additions were better than expected with 199k in Nov’23 (est.: 185k). Unemployment rate also moderated to 3.7% (est.: 3.9%). Average hourly earnings on MoM basis remained sticky at 0.4% compared to 0.2% seen in Oct’23. All these have again raised concerns of a tighter labour market than expected. This was reflected in traders’ sentiment of paring down rate cut expectations. CME Fed watch tool data which was pricing in a 25bps rate cut in Mar’24 with 55% probability last week, is now attaching a probability of 42% to the outcome. We still sense some bit of cautiousness in the upcoming Fed policy. Elsewhere, muted CPI and PPI print in China raised expectation of fiscal stimulus to support the economy. On domestic front, all eyes will be on the upcoming CPI and IIP data prints.

Barring Japan and Hong Kong, stocks elsewhere edged up. FTSE rose the most, led by gains in energy stocks as oil prices recovered. US indices ended higher supported by better than expected macro data (jobs report and University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index). Sensex rose by 0.4%, to a fresh record high. Technology and banking stocks rose the most. It is trading even higher today, while other Asian stocks are mostly trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY was up by 0.5% as a stronger than expected US jobs report pushed back expectations of rate cuts by Fed. EUR fell by 0.3%, as Germany’s inflation eased in Nov’23, ruling out further rate hikes. INR depreciated a tad, and inched closer to its record low. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading weaker.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields broadly closed higher. US 10Y yield has risen by 8bps following tighter than expected labour market data. Even a softening inflation print in Germany could not check the rise in its yield, which moved in tandem with US 10Y yield. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps, tracking lower than expected cut off price. It is trading at 7.28% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 5 Dec and 6 Dec 2023

Oil prices rose, led by demand optimism amidst a resilient US labour market.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Markets remained broadly cautious refraining from holding any strong positions before a plethora of central bank policy meetings and also awaiting CPI data releases of major economies such as US, Germany and India. In the US, CPI is expected to post a flat reading sequentially, as per estimates. However, some sequential momentum might be observed on core inflation, as the growth picture is still uncertain. New York Fed’s 1Yr inflation expectations on the other hand has softened. Elsewhere in UK, property asking prices have fallen beyond usual trends, signalling some correction. In Japan, moderation in price pressure continued as reflected in its PPI reading. On domestic front, any upside surprise to inflation reading might be uncomfortable for markets especially wrt. the direction of yields.

Barring FTSE and Hang Seng, other global stocks edged up. Investors await US CPI data as well as key central bank decisions. Nikkei surged the most by 1.5%, tracking a fall in yen. US stocks ended higher as NY Fed survey indicated a softening in consumers’ inflation expectations. Domestic stocks ended 0.1% higher. Real estate and capital goods stocks registered the maximum increase. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian markets.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except JPY, other global currencies traded in thin ranges ahead of key central bank meetings. The Fed, BoE, ECB and BoJ are scheduled to meet this week, but no rate action is expected. News reports quashed the possibility of any possible tweak in BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy, which weighed on JPY. INR is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed mixed looking for fresh cues in upcoming policies of major central banks. Only UK’s 10Y yield has risen by 4bps amidst reports that some hawkish tone might be hinted in the upcoming policy. China’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps amidst expectation of stimulus in the CEWC meeting. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps and is trading at 7.28% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 5 Dec and 6 Dec 2023

Oil prices rose amidst higher demand from US for replenishing its SPR.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

The latest inflation print before Fed policy meeting came in higher than street estimates. On MoM basis, it picked up by 0.1% against expectation of a flat reading. This was led by increase in housing and other service sector costs, which still reaffirms that some growth momentum is building up. The core print has also been sticky at 0.3%. Real average weekly earnings on YoY basis have risen at a faster pace in Nov’23, which signals that wage cost pressures remain elevated. This has increased the probability that an aggressive pivot towards easing is unlikely in the immediate term. In Germany, Zew survey expectations improved amidst hopes of easing financial conditions. On domestic front, CPI surprised slightly on the downside, despite key supply side risks and IIP data reflected better growth picture.

Global markets ended mixed. Investors monitored easing wage growth in UK, unexpected pickup in US inflation and uptick in Germany’s economic sentiment index. Markets also await updated growth and inflation projections from the Fed. Stocks in Hong Kong rose the most, followed by US. In India, Sensex fell from its record-high led by losses in real estate and oil & gas stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian markets.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR and CNY (flat), other global currencies gained against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.2% awaiting outcome of the Fed meeting, after an unexpected inflation report. EUR rose by 0.3% as Zew’s economic sentiment index for Germany picked up. GBP too edged up after a mixed jobs report. INR is trading marginally stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields broadly closed lower. UK’s 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace tracking average weekly earnings data, which showed moderation. US 10Y yield fell by only 3bps as most of the decline was pared by higher than expected CPI reading for Nov’23. India’s 10Y fell a tad by 1bps. It is trading at 7.26% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 7 Dec and 8 Dec 2023

Oil prices fell amidst oversupply concerns after EIA projected higher US output.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US Fed unanimously decided to keep policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, while striking a dovish tone. FOMC projections revealed that 75bps rate cut is pencilled in next year. This is higher than its Sep’23 projection of 50bps rate cut. Most importantly, policymakers have not priced in any further rate hike in their projection document, a first event since Mar’21. Thus, the dovish policy has led to market rally. Dow Jones rose to its record high and S&P rose to its highest in two years. US 10Y yield made a sharp correction. Elsewhere, in major macro releases, UK’s monthly GDP contracted more than estimated by 0.3% and its industrial production fell sharply by 0.8%. Japan’s core machinery orders remained firm. On domestic front, impact of a likely pivot in global monetary policy will be closely watched.

Barring Hong Kong and China, stocks elsewhere ended in green. Investors cheered the much awaited “Fed pivot”. Stocks in US surged the most, with Dow Jones closing at a record-high. Shanghai Comp fell by 1.2%, amidst lingering growth concerns. Credit growth in China rose less than expected in Nov’23. In India, Sensex ended marginally flat. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian markets.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR, other global currencies gained against the dollar. DXY fell sharply as Fed indicated lower rates in 2024. JPY gained the most by 1.8%. Gains in GBP were muted amidst a contraction in GDP in Oct’23. INR remained under pressure and fell to a new record-low, as oil prices increased. However it is trading stronger today in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield fell at its sharpest pace by 18bps (lowest since Aug’23) mirroring Fed’s dovish policy. The expectation of an easing financial conditions going ahead, was also reflected in yields of UK and Germany, which also fell considerably. India’s 10Y fell a tad by 1bps. It is trading lower at 7.21% today

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 7 Dec and 8 Dec 2023

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global markets continued to get support from Fed’s dovish policy and expectation of a monetary policy normalisation in the coming year. Dollar index hovered at its lowest since Jul’23, sharp correction in US 10Y yield still continued. However, gains in the equity market was pared amidst expectation of further volatility. Elsewhere, ECB and BoE both hinted at sufficiently restrictive policy, going ahead. Now the question remains who will be ahead and behind the curve of easing monetary conditions, based on the evolving growth-inflation dynamics. On macro front, US retail sales inched up with 8 out of 13 categories showing increase in Nov’23. In China, while industrial production picked pace, retail sales and fixed assets underperformed. On domestic front, 10Y yield reacted to sharp fall in US yield.

Except Nikkei and Shanghai Comp, other global indices advanced further. Stocks in US edged up following Fed’s dovish stance. Positive macro data (retail sales and jobless claims) also boosted investors’ sentiments. Stocks in UK and India surged the most. Sensex rose by 1.3% to a fresh record high. Real estate and technology stocks led the rally. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian markets.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended stronger against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.9% amidst expectations of rate cuts by Fed next year. On the other hand, both EUR and GBP gained as ECB and BOE reiterated the need to keep interest rates at high levels for a prolonged period. INR appreciated by 0.1%, led by positive global cues. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except China (tad higher), global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield continued to fall and dropped by 10bps in the current session. This was reflected in direction of yields of other economies as well. The correction in global yields will continue as markets have priced in faster pace of normalisation in monetary policy. India’s 10Y fell by 6bps. It is trading lower at 7.19% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 11 Dec and 12 Dec 2023

Oil prices surged by 3.2% as IEA raised its oil demand forecast for 2024

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research