Economic Weekly Wrap
10 June 2024 - 14 June 2024
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10 Jun 2024
US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected by 272,000 in May’24 (est. 185,000), indicating underlying resilience of the labour market. Wage growth also accelerated by 0.4% from 0.2% in Apr’24 (MoM), which might delay Fed rate cuts. Unemployment rate edged up to 4% from 3.9%. Separately, Japan’s GDP growth declined by 1.8% in Q1CY24 versus a decline of 2% estimated earlier (YoY). In China, exports rose by 7.6% in May’24 (est. 6%) from 1.5% in Apr’24. GDP growth in Eurozone was confirmed at 0.3% in Q1, from a decline of 0.1% in Q4 CY23. On the other hand, import growth decelerated to 1.8% from 8.4% in Apr’24, led by continued weakness in domestic consumption. In India, RBI held policy rates steady by a 4-2 vote. Fed and BOJ meeting, as well as US CPI and UK labour data will be key watchable for investors this week. In India, CPI and IIP data is due.
Except China and India, global indices ended lower. Investors remained cautious as a firmer dollar weighed on sentiments, buoyed by better-than-expected payroll numbers and earnings data in the US. Political uncertainty in the Eurozone also impacted investor sentiments. Hang Seng fell the most, followed by FTSE and US stocks. Sensex rose by 2.2%. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
06-06-2024 07-06-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 38,886 38,799 (0.2) S & P 500 5,353 5,347 (0.1) FTSE 8,285 8,245 (0.5) Nikkei 38,704 38,684 (0.1) Hang Seng 18,477 18,367 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,049 3,051 0.1 Sensex 75,075 76,693 2.2 Nifty 22,821 23,290 2.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and CNY, other global currencies depreciated against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.8% as a strong US jobs report has once again pushed back the timing of Fed rate cuts. INR appreciated by 0.1% as oil prices eased. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
06-06-2024 07-06-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0890 1.0801 (0.8) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2791 1.2719 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 155.61 156.75 (0.7) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.48 83.38 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2450 7.2478 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda
Global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose at the sharpest pace by 15bps as payroll numbers of the region again showed tightness in the labour market, thus denting hopes of a rate cut this year. Even a September 2024 rate cut does not seem to be feasible now as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool. Yields in the UK and Germany also inched up. India’s 10Y yield closed a tad higher and is trading at 7.03%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
06-06-2024 07-06-2024 Change, bps US 4.29 4.43 15 UK 4.17 4.26 9 Germany 2.55 2.62 7 Japan 0.96 0.98 1 China 2.31 2.31 0 India 7.01 7.02 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
06-06-2024 07-06-2024 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 6.85 6.85 0 Tbill-182 days 7.01 6.99 (2) Tbill-364 days 7.02 7.01 (1) G-Sec 2Y 7.05 7.02 (3) India OIS-2M 6.71 6.69 (2) India OIS-9M 6.79 6.76 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.20 5.20 0 US SOFR 5.33 5.33 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
06-06-2024 07-06-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) 0.1 0.6 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.9 0.5 (0.4) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
05-06-2024 06-06-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (504.1) (698.4) (194.4) Debt 72.1 112.8 40.7 Equity (576.1) (811.2) (235.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (6,440.4) 3,217.6 9,658.0 Debt (166.2) 391.5 557.7 Equity (6,274.3) 2,826.1 9,100.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 4 Jun and 5 Jun 2024
Oil prices moderated, dragged down by a firmer dollar.
Fig 7 – Commodities
06-06-2024 07-06-2024 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.9 79.6 (0.3) Gold (US$/Troy Ounce) 2,376.1 2,293.8 (3.5) Copper (US$/MT) 10,036.5 9,638.4 (4.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,852.1 2,704.1 (5.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,647.5 2,578.0 (2.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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11 Jun 2024
Global markets await key US CPI report and the outcome of Fed policy meet this week; even as latest US jobs data dented prospects of a rate cut. While the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in this meeting, focus will be on any update to Fed’s economic projections. US headline CPI is expected to moderate to 0.1% from 0.3% in Apr’24 (MoM). In Eurozone, the French President called for a snap election which spooked investor sentiment. Bank of Japan also meets this week and while no rate action is expected, focus will be on BoJ’s bond purchase programme which is widely expected to be curtailed. In India, the Prime Minister allocated portfolios to the Union Cabinet ministers. Separately, CPI report due tomorrow is likely to show a marginal pickup in inflation led by higher food inflation.
Global indices broadly ended lower. Markets remained cautious ahead of US CPI data and Fed policy, which is scheduled this week. Investors are refraining from holding any strong positions before the release of economic projections by the Fed. Investors also eyed initial results of the EU vote. Sensex rose by 2.2%, buoyed by positive political sentiment. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
07-06-2024 10-06-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 38,886 38,799 (0.2) S & P 500 5,353 5,347 (0.1) FTSE 8,285 8,245 (0.5) Nikkei 38,704 38,684 (0.1) Hang Seng 18,477 18,367 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,049 3,051 0.1 Sensex 75,075 76,693 2.2 Nifty 22,821 23,290 2.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Markets in China and Hong Kong were closed on 10 June 2024
Global currencies broadly closed weaker against the dollar. DXY edged up by 0.3% ahead of the Fed meeting and US CPI data. EUR depreciated the most amidst political uncertainty in France. INR too fell by 0.2% as oil prices inched up. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
07-06-2024 10-06-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0801 1.0765 (0.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2719 1.2731 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.75 157.04 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.38 83.51 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2450 7.2478 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Markets in China were closed on 10 June 2024
Global yields closed higher. Japan’s 10Y yield rose at the sharpest pace as the market is anticipating fresh guidance on tapered bond buying. Expectation of a deferred rate cut by Fed impacted global 10Y yields. ECB Chief also hinted at a cautious approach on rates. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. It is trading at 7.02% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
07-06-2024 10-06-2024 Change, bps US 4.43 4.47 3 UK 4.26 4.32 6 Germany 2.62 2.67 5 Japan 0.98 1.04 7 China 2.31 2.31 0 India 7.02 7.03 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Markets in China were closed on 10 June 2024
Fig 4 – Short term rates
07-06-2024 10-06-2024 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 6.84 6.84 0 Tbill-182 days 6.99 6.99 0 Tbill-364 days 7.01 7.02 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.00 7.00 0 India OIS-2M 6.69 6.71 2 India OIS-9M 6.76 6.77 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.20 5.20 0 US SOFR 5.33 5.33 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
07-06-2024 10-06-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.2 0.1 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
06-06-2024 07-06-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (698.4) 796.6 1,495.1 Debt 112.8 154.7 41.9 Equity (811.2) 642.0 1,453.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 3,260.4 2,374.7 (885.7) Debt 340.9 (2,226.9) (2,567.8) Equity 2,919.5 4,601.6 1,682.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Mutual Fund data as of 5 June and 6 June 2024
Oil prices gained momentum ahead of OPEC market report.
Fig 7 – Commodities
07-06-2024 10-06-2024 % Change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 79.6 81.6 2.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,293.8 2,310.9 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,638.4 9,765.9 1.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,704.1 2,788.6 3.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,578.0 2,572.0 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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12 Jun 2024
World Bank has upgraded its global growth forecast to 2.6% in 2024, from 2.4% estimated earlier. The upward revision is largely attributed to stronger than expected growth in US (2.5% versus 1.6% earlier). For India, growth forecast for FY25 has been revised upwards to 6.6% from 6.4% expected earlier on the back of sustained domestic demand, buoyant services sector and improvement in investment. Separately, CPI inflation in China remained steady at 0.3% in May’24, lower than an estimated 0.4% increase, providing further evidence that domestic demand remains weak. PPI declined at a slower pace of 1.4% (est. 1.5% drop) compared with a decline of 2.5% in Apr’24. In UK, unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in FebApr’24 from 4.3% in Jan-Mar’24. Wage growth remained sticky, denting expectations of a rate cut in Jun’24.
Except Japan (higher), global indices ended lower amidst reallocation of assets before Fed policy decision and US CPI print. Markets expect the Fed to revise its forecasts of inflation and unemployment rate upwards. Hang Seng fell by 1%, led by auto stocks ahead of Europe’s tariff decision. Sensex closed flat. It is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
10-06-2024 11-06-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 38,868 38,747 (0.3) S & P 500 5,361 5,375 0.3 FTSE 8,228 8,148 (1.0) Nikkei 39,038 39,135 0.2 Hang Seng 18,367 18,176 (1.0) Shanghai Comp 3,051 3,028 (0.8) Sensex 76,490 76,457 0 Nifty 23,259 23,265 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except GBP, other global currencies depreciated against the dollar. Movement in the global forex market was limited as investors await US CPI report and the outcome of the Fed policy meeting. DXY hovered around a 1-month high putting pressure on EM currencies. INR depreciated to a record low. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
10-06-2024 11-06-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0765 1.0741 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2731 1.2740 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 157.04 157.13 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.51 83.57 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2478 7.2544 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda
Global yields closed lower led by a risk-off sentiment before the Fed policy decision. Hawkish comments from ECB officials and sticky earnings growth in the UK also could not arrest the fall in global yields. US 10Y yield fell the most, followed by UK and Germany. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps to 7.01% and is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
10-06-2024 11-06-2024 Change, bps US 4.47 4.40 (6) UK 4.32 4.27 (5) Germany 2.67 2.62 (5) Japan 1.04 1.03 (2) China 2.31 2.31 0 India 7.03 7.01 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
10-06-2024 11-06-2024 Change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.84 6.84 0 Tbill-182 days 6.99 6.98 (1) Tbill-364 days 7.02 7.00 (2) G-Sec 2Y 7.00 7.00 (1) India OIS-2M 6.71 6.71 0 India OIS-9M 6.77 6.76 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 5.20 5.20 0 US SOFR 5.33 5.32 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
07-06-2024 10-06-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.2 0.1 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
07-06-2024 10-06-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 796.6 325.8 (470.8) Debt 154.7 (17.7) (172.3) Equity 642.0 343.5 (298.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,374.7 (905.3) (3,279.9) Debt (2,226.9) (64.9) 2,162.0 Equity 4,601.6 (840.4) (5,441.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 6 June and 7 June 2024
Oil prices rose as EIA raised its oil demand forecast for CY24.
Fig 7 – Commodities
10-06-2024 11-06-2024 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 81.6 81.9 0.4 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,310.9 2,317.0 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,765.9 9,630.4 (1.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,788.6 2,709.1 (2.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,572.0 2,533.5 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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13 Jun 2024
US CPI remained unchanged in May’24 (est. 0.1% increase), after increasing by 0.3% in Apr’24 on a YoY basis. Core CPI too moderated to 0.2% from 0.3% in Apr’24. Even so, the Fed remained cautious and indicated the possibility of only a single rate cut in 2024, down from 3 rate cuts expected at the beginning of the year. Notably, while the Fed kept its growth forecasts unchanged, inflation estimates (PCE and Core PCE) for both 2024 and 2025 were revised up by 20bps and 10bps respectively. Separately, unemployment rate in Australia eased to 4% in May’24 from 4.1%, providing some comfort to policy makers. In UK, GDP growth was flat in Apr’24 following a 0.4% rise in Mar’24. In India, CPI inflation eased marginally to 4.75%, led by lower core inflation despite sticky food inflation. IIP growth eased to a 3-month low at 5% from 5.4% in Mar’24, due to moderation in manufacturing output.
Global equity indices closed mixed. Investors remained cautious tracking Fed policy which showed that majority of FOMC members favoured one quarter point cut in CY24, down from three earlier. Easing US CPI also impacted investor sentiments. S&P 500 and FTSE inched up. Hang Seng moderated amidst reports of 38% tariff hike on Chinese EVs by EU. Sensex rose by 0.2%. It is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
11-06-2024 12-06-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 38,747 38,712 (0.1) S & P 500 5,375 5,421 0.9 FTSE 8,148 8,215 0.8 Nikkei 39,135 38,877 (0.7) Hang Seng 18,176 17,938 (1.3) Shanghai Comp 3,028 3,037 0.3 Sensex 76,457 76,607 0.2 Nifty 23,265 23,323 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
DXY snapped its 3-day streak and ended lower after a weaker than expected US inflation report. EUR gained the most by 0.6% amidst hawkish comments from ECB officials. INR appreciated marginally. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
11-06-2024 12-06-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0741 1.0809 0.6 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2740 1.2798 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 157.13 156.72 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.57 83.54 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2544 7.2405 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda
Except China and India (stable), global yields closed lower. UK’s 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace as GDP data remained flat and industrial production weakened, strengthening the case for rate cut to support growth. 10Y yields in US and Germany fell by 9bps each, as Fed dot plot suggested faster pace of rate cuts in CY25. India’s 10Y yield is trading lower at 6.99% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
11-06-2024 12-06-2024 Change, bps US 4.40 4.32 (9) UK 4.27 4.13 (14) Germany 2.62 2.53 (9) Japan 1.03 0.99 (4) China 2.31 2.31 0 India 7.01 7.01 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
11-06-2024 12-06-2024 Change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.84 6.83 (1) Tbill-182 days 6.98 6.98 0 Tbill-364 days 7.00 7.01 1 G-Sec 2Y 7.00 6.99 (1) India OIS-2M 6.71 6.71 0 India OIS-9M 6.76 6.77 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.20 5.20 0 US SOFR 5.32 5.32 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
11-06-2024 12-06-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.1 0 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
10-06-2024 11-06-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 325.8 (292.3) (618.1) Debt (17.7) (299.2) (281.5) Equity 343.5 6.8 (336.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (905.3) 2,888.1 3,793.3 Debt (64.9) (488.0) (423.1) Equity (840.4) 3,376.1 4,216.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 7 June and 10 June 2024
Oil prices rose despite build up in US inventories.
Fig 7 – Commodities
11-06-2024 12-06-2024 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 81.9 82.6 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,317.0 2,325.0 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,630.4 9,821.0 2.0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,709.1 2,841.1 4.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,533.5 2,575.5 1.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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14 Jun 2024
Providing fresh cues of abating inflationary pressures, PPI inflation in US declined unexpectedly by 0.2% in May’24 (est. +0.1%) following a 0.5% increase in Apr’24. Separately, US weekly jobless claims rose to 242,000 (est. 225,000), to the highest level since Aug’23, suggesting a weakening momentum in the labour market. Together, the data has brought back a Sep’24 rate cut back in play. Notably, updated projections by the Fed indicate that the central bank is likely to undertake only a 25bps rate cut in 2024. Separately, Bank of Japan held its policy rates as widely expected. However, the central bank refrained from giving clarity on reducing its bond purchase programme, deferring the decision to its next policy meeting.
Global equity indices closed mixed. Investors remained cautious tracking US increase in US jobless and softening PPI inflation. Reports of China’s retaliatory actions against EU tariff also impacted investor sentiments. Investors also await clarity on BoJ’s approach to reduction in bond purchase, which remains hazy. Hang Seng inched up, while European stocks moderated. Sensex rose by 0.3%. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
12-06-2024 13-06-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 38,712 38,647 (0.2) S & P 500 5,421 5,434 0.2 FTSE 8,215 8,164 (0.6) Nikkei 38,877 38,720 (0.4) Hang Seng 17,938 18,113 1.0 Shanghai Comp 3,037 3,029 (0.3) Sensex 76,607 76,811 0.3 Nifty 23,323 23,399 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
DXY snapped its 3-day streak and ended lower after a weaker than expected US inflation report. EUR gained the most by 0.6% amidst hawkish comments from ECB officials. INR appreciated marginally. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
12-06-2024 13-06-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0809 1.0737 (0.7) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2798 1.2762 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.72 157.03 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.54 83.55 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2405 7.2525 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda
Except China and India (stable), global yields closed lower. UK’s 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace as GDP data remained flat and industrial production weakened, strengthening the case for rate cut to support growth. 10Y yields in US and Germany fell by 9bps each, as Fed dot plot suggested faster pace of rate cuts in CY25. India’s 10Y yield is trading lower at 6.99% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
12-06-2024 13-06-2024 Change, bps US 4.32 4.24 (7) UK 4.13 4.12 0 Germany 2.53 2.47 (6) Japan 0.99 0.98 (1) China 2.31 2.30 (1) India 7.01 6.99 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
12-06-2024 13-06-2024 Change in bps Tbill-91 days 4.32 4.24 (7) Tbill-182 days 4.13 4.12 0 Tbill-364 days 2.53 2.47 (6) G-Sec 2Y 0.99 0.98 (1) India OIS-2M 2.31 2.30 (1) India OIS-9M 7.01 6.99 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.32 4.24 (7) US SOFR 4.13 4.12 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
12-06-2024 13-06-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 0.1 0.1 0 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.5 0.5 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
11-06-2024 12-06-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (292.3) 331.6 624.0 Debt (299.2) 250.3 549.5 Equity 6.8 81.3 74.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,888.1 2,092.6 (795.5) Debt (488.0) (1,724.3) (1,236.2) Equity 3,376.1 3,816.9 440.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 10 June and 11 June 2024
Oil prices increased further amidst a strong demand outlook.
Fig 7 – Commodities
12-06-2024 13-06-2024 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 82.6 82.8 0.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,325.0 2,304.2 (0.9) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,821.0 9,663.7 (1.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,841.1 2,804.3 (1.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,575.5 2,557.0 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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