Economic Weekly Wrap
07 October 2024 - 11 October 2024

US jobs data has again shed light on resilience of the labour market in the country. Non-farm payrolls rose by 254k in Sep’24, up from est.: 150k and 159k rise in Aug’24. Most visible increase was in case of food services and drinking place, healthcare, construction and social assistance. Unemployment rate inched down to 4.1% in Sep’24 from 4.2% in Aug’24. Average hourly earnings also came in higher (0.4% MoM) than estimated (0.3%). As a result, investors have now scaled back their expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts in the coming months. Fed fund rate is expected at ~3.25-3.75% by mid-2025 versus ~3-3.25% expected earlier. Apart from tight labour market, ongoing geo-political tensions and its impact on oil prices and supply chain disruptions, is also a cause of concern for global investors. Investors now await release of US CPI data and FOMC minutes for more guidance on rates.

Global indices ended mixed. US indices ended in green after a better-thanexpected jobs report. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng gained the most. On the other hand, Sensex ended in red as investors monitored geopolitical tension brewing in the Middle East. The sharp losses were largely led by auto and power stocks. It is trading a tad higher today in line with other Asian indices.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in China are closed since 30 Sep

Except GBP and INR (flat), other global currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY climbed to more than 6-weeks high after a strong jobs report. Investors are pricing in a 35% chance of 50bps rate cut in Nov'24 down from 49%. INR remained steady with focus shifting towards tensions in Middle East. It is trading broadly stable today while other currencies are trading lower.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Note: Markets in China are closed since 30 Sep

Global yields closed sharply higher. 10Y yields in US and UK rose the most. Steep increase in US non-farm payrolls and unexpected decline in unemployment rate had led to investors scaling back their expectations of aggressive rate cut by Fed in the coming months. India’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps, as oil prices continue to go up. It is trading flat at 6.84% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in China are closed since 30 Sep 2024

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 30 Sep and 1 Oct. Markets in India were closed on 2 Oct

Oil prices rose, as tensions in Middle East offset rising supply worries.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Stronger than expected labour market in the US has revived fears that Fed may not be lowering rates as much as markets were pricing in earlier. In Europe, UK’s Halifax house price index shows that house prices in Sep’24 rose for the 3rd month in a row, in view of strong wage growth and easing interest rates. In Germany, conditions remain bleak as industrial orders in Aug’24 fell by (-) 5.8% (MoM) versus est.: (-) 2% decline, dragged by (-) 10.5% decline in orders from other Eurozone economies. This indicates high distress levels in the region. Elsewhere in China, government has announced stimulus measures, but these have fallen short of investor expectations, as they are unlikely to provide significant boost to the economy. Measures include: speeding up of special purpose bond issuances for local governments, and potential announcement of 100bn Yuan investment program for CY25 by the end of Oct’24.

Global indices ended mixed. Investors monitored the ongoing conflict in the Middle East which could possibly have an impact on oil prices. Moreover, traders have lowered their expectation of a 50bps cut by Fed in Nov’24. Sensex continued to tumble and was dragged down by sharp losses in power and metal stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in China are closed since 30 Sep

Global currencies ended mixed. DXY remained steady after the better-than-expected jobs report. Speeches by FOMC members scheduled today will be closely tracked for any guidance on rates as this could also impact DXY and gold prices. INR ended flat. It is trading stronger today while other currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Note: Markets in China are closed since 30 Sep

 Global yields continue to inch up. 10Y yields in UK and US rose the most. Strength in US labour market is making investors believe that Fed may not cut rates as aggressively as previously planned. US 10Y yield thus crossed the 4% mark for the 1st time since early Aug’24. India’s 10Y yield also rose by 2bps, tracking global cues and oil prices. However, it is trading lower at 6.82% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in China are closed since 30 Sep 2024

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 1 Oct and 3 Oct. Markets in India were closed on 2 Oct

Oil prices surpass US$80/bbl mark, as tensions in Middle East still remain.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Australia’s central bank, RBA, had a hawkish tone to its minutes, as it stated that the “policy will need to remain restrictive until Board members are confident inflation is moving sustainably towards the target”. Minutes noted that less than 3% inflation in Aug’24 was primarily due to electricity subsidies. It also acknowledged that labour market remains relatively tight and the output gap is also positive. Separately, central bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 50bps rate cut (to 4.75%), as inflation returns to target range. However the committee believes that policy still remains restrictive. This has led to investors betting on more aggressive rate cuts in the next few meetings. In Asia, Taiwan’s exports moderated significantly, as they rose by 4.5% (YoY) in Sep’24, following 16.8% increase in Aug’24. On the domestic front, RBI is set to announce its policy decision today. We expect no change in rates.

Global indices ended mixed. US indices rebounded with investors turning their focus towards inflation data, Fed minutes and earnings report. Sharp losses in Hang Seng wiped out previous gains. The stimulus measures proposed in China, kept investors disappointed. Sensex rebounded, led by capital good stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed. DXY remained steady ahead of Fed minutes with investors repricing their expectations on rate reductions. Inflation data scheduled tomorrow might provide support to DXY. Fed President Collins noted ‘further adjustment of policy will likely be needed’. INR ended flat. It is trading stronger today while other currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Except China, other global yields eased. 10Y yields in India and UK fell the most. Possibility of ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has raised hopes for steady price conditions, due to lesser supply disruptions. India’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps, tracking global cues and oil prices. It is trading even lower at 6.79% today, ahead of RBI policy decision.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 3 Oct and 4 Oct

Oil prices fell, following the news of possible ceasefire in the Middle East.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fed’s FOMC minutes show that Sep’24 rate cut was not a unanimous decision, a first since 2005. One member dissented and voted for 25bps cut. Since the rate cut in Sep’24, labour market has proved to be more resilient than expected and inflationary pressures are also building up. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is keeping oil prices on edge. Also, if recent stimulus measures announced by China succeed in reviving demand, then that will also add to global inflationary pressures. As a result, US 10Y yield remains above the 4% mark. On the domestic front, after JP Morgan EM index and Bloomberg EM bonds index, FTSE Rusell EM govt bond index has also announced India’s inclusion into the set. This will take effect from Sep’25 and has helped cool down Indian bond yields. Further, RBI in its policy decision changed its stance to “neutral”, providing support to India’s bond yields.

Global indices ended mixed amidst fears around conflict in Middle East. US indices advanced as investors’ monitored Fed minutes and awaited inflation data. Sensex closed marginally lower. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian indices. In China, PBoC began with stimulus measures which were announced previously in order to boost liquidity.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring INR (flat), other global currencies ended lower. DXY firmed (near 2-month high) as investors pared bets of aggressive cut ahead of looming inflation report. JPY weakened, fuelled by uncertainty over any more hikes by BoJ. INR ended flat. It is trading at same level while other currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Except China, other global yields eased. US 10Y yield rose the most by 6bps, as FOMC minutes showed that some disagreement regarding the quantum of rate cut that Fed should have announced in its Sep’24 policy. Risks of inflationary pressures coming back also impacted investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps, tracking RBI’s dovish policy. It is trading even lower at 6.75% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 3 Oct and 4 Oct

Oil prices fell further, amidst news of rising US crude oil inventories.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US CPI rose by 0.2% (MoM) in Sep’24, remaining unchanged from last month, but came in slightly higher than est.: 0.1%. In YoY terms as well, CPI in Sep’24 (2.4%) was higher than expected (2.3%). The sequential increase was driven by jump in food prices (0.4% versus 0.1% in Aug’24). Core inflation remained stable (0.3%). however, build up in pressure is visible in case of new vehicles, apparels, medical care, and transportation services. Further, initial jobless claims for the week ending 5 Oct rose to 258k (est.: 230k), up by 33k, mainly showing the impact of Hurricane Helene. Investors have now moved their expectations from a 50bps cut in Nov’24 to 25bps cut, signalling that Fed is likely to ease rates less aggressively. Elsewhere in Europe, slowing inflation is helping retail sales regain some ground in Germany, as it rose by 1.6% (MoM) in Aug’24, following 1.5% increase in Jul’24.

Most of the global indices ended mixed. US indices closed lower as investors monitored inflation print which came in tad higher than expected (2.4% against est.: 2.3%). Notably, jobless claims came in higher than anticipated (258k against est.: 230k). Sensex inched up with gains in banking stocks. It is trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading higher.

Fig 1 – Stock Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed. DXY continued to strengthen as it hovered near the 2-month peak. The release of CPI print and jobless claims could possibly stall this rally. Comments by Fed officials scheduled next week will provide more guidance on the same. INR ended flat. It is trading stronger today while other currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda

Global yields closed mixed. 10Y yields in US and China fell, while they rose in UK, Japan and India. Investors digest hotter than expected US CPI data and weakness in initial jobless claims. UK yields have been driven by news of possible relaxation in the borrowing rule of government. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, tracking gains in oil prices. It is trading a tad lower at 6.77% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 3 Oct and 4 Oct

Oil prices rose, due to supply concerns (storm in US/tensions in Middle East).

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research