Economic Weekly Wrap
05 June 2023 - 09 June 2023
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05 June 2023
Additions to non-farm payrolls in the US rose more than expected (195k) in May’23 to 339k from 294k in Apr’23. However, unemployment rate also rose, to 3.7% (highest since Oct’22) from 3.4% in the previous month. Mixed signals from US (labour market, manufacturing activity), has raised the probability (70%) of Fed entering wait and watch mode by opting for a pause in Jun’23. In Asia, South Korea’s Q1CY23 GDP was left unrevised on QoQ basis (+0.3%), while on YoY basis it was revised upward to 0.9% (0.8% earlier)—still it’s the weakest rate of growth since Q4CY20. On Sunday, OPEC+ decided for no involuntary change in production cuts in CY23, and to limit production to 40.5mn bbl/day in CY24. However, voluntary production cuts were announced by the members (1.16mn bbl/day) till end of CY23.
Global indices ended higher following a stellar increase in US non-farm payrolls. Investor sentiments were also buoyed by passage of US debt ceiling. Hang Seng rose the most by 4%, led by gains in realty and consumer stocks. Dow Jones too ended higher by 2.1%. Sensex rose by 0.2%, led by metal and real estate stocks. Though, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
1-06-2023 2-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,062 33,763 2.1 S & P 500 4,221 4,282 1.5 FTSE 7,490 7,607 1.6 Nikkei 31,148 31,524 1.2 Hang Seng 18,217 18,950 4.0 Shanghai Comp 3,205 3,230 0.8 Sensex 62,429 62,547 0.2 Nifty 18,488 18,534 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies closed broadly lower against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.4% following a stronger than expected payrolls report. JPY fell the most by 0.8%, followed by a 0.6% drop in GBP. EUR too fell, despite better rebound in industrial production in France. INR bucked the trend and rose by 0.1%, supported by FPI inflows. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
1-06-2023 2-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0762 1.0708 (0.5) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2526 1.2453 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 138.80 139.92 (0.8) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.41 82.30 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0976 7.0986 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan (lower) and India (flat), other global yields ended higher. 10Y yields in US, Germany and UK rose the most. Additions to US non-farm payrolls surprised on the upside, reviving hopes of elevated rates in the US for long. India’s 10Y ended flat, however, it is trading higher today at 7%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
1-06-2023 2-06-2023 change in bps US 3.60 3.69 10 UK 4.12 4.16 4 Germany 2.25 2.31 6 Japan 0.42 0.41 (1) China 2.70 2.72 1 India 6.98 6.98 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
1-06-2023 2-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.74 6.72 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.85 0 Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.87 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.84 6.83 (1) India OIS-2M 6.54 6.53 0 India OIS-9M 6.58 6.58 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.08 5.08 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 1-06-2023 2-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.4) (2.4) 0 Reverse repo 0.5 0 (0.5) Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
31-05-2023 1-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 451.5 325.4 (126.1) Debt (12.6) 3.8 16.4 Equity 464.2 321.6 (142.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (283.2) 68.5 351.7 Debt (386.6) 58.5 445.1 Equity 103.4 10.0 (93.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices rose by another 2.5% to US$ 76/bbl, following the approval of US debt ceiling deal and awaiting Fed’s decision in its Jun’23 policy meeting.
Fig 7 – Commodities
1-06-2023 2-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.3 76.1 2.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,977.6 1,948.0 (1.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,240.0 8,233.5 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,250.3 2,301.0 2.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,282.5 2,263.5 (0.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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06 June 2023
Latest macro data from the US shows that factory order rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23 (est.: 0.8%), slightly down from 0.6% in Mar’23. In addition, the ISM services index also eased to 50.3 in May’23 from 51.9 in Apr’23, dragged by decline in new orders, employment. Inventories increased. In Europe as well, services activity is seeing moderation with Markit PMI index declining in case of UK and Eurozone (led by France). Europe is also facing renewed threat from increase in oil prices, following OPEC+ decision to announce voluntary production cuts. This is expected to maintain pressure on ECB and BoE. Fed on the other hand is expected to pause in Jun’23, but there is currently 65% probability of hike in Jul’23.
Indices in US and UK fell, but they ended higher elsewhere. Dow Jones fell the most, while Nikkei rose to its highest since CY86-CY91 period. Dip in US ISM services index and decline in tech stocks led by Apple dragged Wall Street indices down. Sensex rose by 0.4%, led by auto and cap goods stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
2-06-2023 5-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,763 33,563 (0.6) S & P 500 4,282 4,274 (0.2) FTSE 7,607 7,600 (0.1) Nikkei 31,524 32,217 2.2 Hang Seng 18,950 19,109 0.8 Shanghai Comp 3,230 3,232 0.1 Sensex 62,547 62,787 0.4 Nifty 18,534 18,594 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR (flat) and JPY (higher), other global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY was flat as weaker than expected factory orders and ISM services index raised hopes Fed opting for a pause in Jun’23. INR fell the most by 0.5%, as oil prices inched up. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
2-06-2023 5-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0708 1.0713 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2453 1.2438 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.92 139.58 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.30 82.68 (0.5) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0986 7.1023 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring US (lower) and China (flat), other global yields ended higher. 10Y yields in Germany and UK rose the most. Revived pressure on oil prices can be worrisome for inflation in Europe. US Fed is largely expected to pause in Jun’23 following disappointing macro data. India’s 10Y too rose by 1bps, due to increase in oil prices. It is trading broadly stable today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
2-06-2023 5-06-2023 change in bps US 3.69 3.68 (1) UK 4.16 4.21 5 Germany 2.31 2.38 7 Japan 0.41 0.43 2 China 2.72 2.72 0 India 6.98 7.00 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
2-06-2023 5-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.72 6.70 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.83 (2) Tbill-364 days 6.87 6.86 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.83 6.83 0 India OIS-2M 6.53 6.54 1 India OIS-9M 6.58 6.60 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.08 5.07 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 2-06-2023 5-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.4) (2.3) 0.1 Reverse repo 0 0.5 0.5 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
1-06-2023 2-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 325.4 117.0 (208.4) Debt 3.8 38.9 35.1 Equity 321.6 78.1 (243.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (283.2) 68.5 351.7 Debt (386.6) 58.5 445.1 Equity 103.4 10.0 (93.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices rose by 0.8% to US$ 76.7/bbl, following OPEC+ members’ decision to opt for voluntary oil production cuts in the remaining part of CY23.
Fig 7 – Commodities
2-06-2023 5-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.1 76.7 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,948.0 1,961.9 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,233.5 8,331.0 1.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,301.0 2,280.5 (0.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,263.5 2,244.0 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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07 June 2023
Markets were surprised yesterday as RBA raised its key policy by 25bps (est.: pause) to 11-year high of 4.1%, and further indicated that more tightening might be needed to bring inflation down to targeted levels. Meanwhile, Australia’s GDP growth slowed to 1.5-year low of 0.2% (QoQ) in Q1CY23 versus est.: 0.3% and 0.5% in Q4CY22. Tight financial conditions globally are impacting overall demand which is being reflected in China’s more than expected (-0.4%) decline in exports in May’23 (- 7.5%) following 8.5% increase in Apr’23. Imports declined less sharply (-4.5% versus est.: -8% and -7.9% in Apr’23). Fears of muted global demand also impacted oil prices. Investors now await decisions from other major central banks for guidance.
Global indices closed mixed. S&P rose modestly to its highest level in CYTD23, and Nikkei was up at its 33-year high, while Shanghai Comp registered a steep decline. In Japan, fast retailing and housing stocks lifted the markets. Investors also await Fed’s rate decision due next week. Sensex ended flat as gains in realty and auto were outweighed losses in tech and metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
5-06-2023 6-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,563 33,573 0 S & P 500 4,274 4,284 0.2 FTSE 7,600 7,628 0.4 Nikkei 32,217 32,507 0.9 Hang Seng 19,109 19,099 0 Shanghai Comp 3,232 3,195 (1.1) Sensex 62,787 62,793 0 Nifty 18,594 18,599 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY (flat) and INR (higher), other global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY was up by 0.1% as investors reassess their bets on Fed rate hike (Jul’23 if not Jun’23). INR rose by 0.1%, as oil prices fell. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
5-06-2023 6-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0713 1.0693 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2438 1.2424 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.58 139.63 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.68 82.61 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1023 7.1176 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring UK (flat), other global yields closed lower. 10Y yields in US and India (- 2bps each) fell the most. Investors are now betting on a pause by Fed in Jun’23 and a hike in Jul’23. Following global cues, decline in oil prices, and awaiting MPC’s decision due tomorrow, India’s 10Y yield too declined. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
5-06-2023 6-06-2023 change in bps US 3.68 3.66 (2) UK 4.21 4.21 0 Germany 2.38 2.37 (1) Japan 0.43 0.43 (1) China 2.72 2.71 (1) India 7.00 6.98 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
5-06-2023 6-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.70 6.72 2 Tbill-182 days 6.83 6.83 0 Tbill-364 days 6.86 6.85 (1) G-Sec 2Y 6.83 6.83 0 India OIS-2M 6.54 6.55 1 India OIS-9M 6.60 6.59 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.07 5.06 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 5-06-2023 6-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.3) (2.1) 0.2 Reverse repo 0.5 1.2 0.7 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
2-06-2023 5-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 117.0 (6.4) (123.4) Debt 38.9 55.7 16.8 Equity 78.1 (62.1) (140.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (283.2) 68.5 351.7 Debt (386.6) 58.5 445.1 Equity 103.4 10.0 (93.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices fell by 0.5% to US$ 76.3/bbl, as supply side fears were outweighed by concerns over muted global demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
5-06-2023 6-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.7 76.3 (0.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,961.9 1,963.5 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,331.0 8,334.0 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,280.5 2,322.5 1.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,244.0 2,210.0 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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08 June 2023
Central Bank of Canada surprised the markets by hiking its key policy rate by 25bps to 4.75%, thus taking it to 22-year high. The bank had been on hold since Jan’23, however, in view of stubbornly elevated inflation, it decided to hike again. RBA had also made a similar move. Investors are now jittery that even other major central banks may also follow the suit and a pause may not imply end of the rate hike cycle. Markets are now factoring in a probable rate hike by Fed in Jul’23, following a pause in in Jun’23. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s Q1CY23 GDP was revised sharply up to 2.7% (est.: 1.9% and 1.6% as per first estimates), led by upward revision in private non-residential investment, private demand and domestic demand.
Apart from S&P, Nikkei (lower), and FTSE (flat), other global indices closed higher. S&P fell as mega-cap stocks (Microsoft, Google) underperformed. FTSE ended flat owing to fears around inflation and central bank action. Sensex rose by 0.6%, led by cap goods, metals and realty stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
6-06-2023 7-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,573 33,665 0.3 S & P 500 4,284 4,268 (0.4) FTSE 7,628 7,624 0 Nikkei 32,507 31,914 (1.8) Hang Seng 19,099 19,252 0.8 Shanghai Comp 3,195 3,198 0.1 Sensex 62,793 63,143 0.6 Nifty 18,599 18,726 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except JPY (flat) and INR (higher), other global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY was up by 0.1% as investors reassess their bets on Fed rate hike (Jul’23 if not Jun’23). INR rose by 0.1%, as oil prices fell. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
6-06-2023 7-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0693 1.0699 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2424 1.2438 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 139.63 140.13 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.61 82.55 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1176 7.1350 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Sovereign yields in developed markets jumped sharply, with US (+14bps) and Germany (+8bps) leading the way. After RBA, Bank of Canada also surprised markets with a rate hike, leading to concerns that other major central banks may also do the same. India’s 10Y ended flat awaiting RBI’s decision. However, following global cues, it is trading a tad higher at 7% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
6-06-2023 7-06-2023 change in bps US 3.66 3.80 14 UK 4.21 4.25 4 Germany 2.37 2.46 8 Japan 0.43 0.43 0 China 2.71 2.71 (1) India 6.98 6.98 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
6-06-2023 7-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.72 6.74 2 Tbill-182 days 6.83 6.85 2 Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.85 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.83 6.85 1 India OIS-2M 6.55 6.54 (1) India OIS-9M 6.59 6.62 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.06 5.05 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 6-06-2023 7-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.1) (2.2) (0.1) Reverse repo 1.2 1.2 0 Repo 0 0.3 0.3 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
5-06-2023 6-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (6.4) 136.0 142.5 Debt 55.7 1.5 (54.1) Equity (62.1) 134.5 196.6 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (283.2) 68.5 351.7 Debt (386.6) 58.5 445.1 Equity 103.4 10.0 (93.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices rose by 0.9%, as EIA data showed that US crude stockpiles fell last week by 451k barrels versus est.: 1mn barrel increase.
Fig 7 – Commodities
6-06-2023 7-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 76.3 77.0 0.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,963.5 1,940.0 (1.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,334.0 8,292.1 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,322.5 2,399.1 3.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,210.0 2,219.0 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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09 June 2023
Following the softening of labour market in the US and expectation of moderation in inflation as well in May’23, investors are now hoping for an earlier than anticipated end in Fed’s rate hike cycle. Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 28k for the week ending 3 Jun 2023, to reach 261k (est.: 237k) and 232k in the previous week. China’s latest price also shows signs of economic recovery cooling down. Threat of deflation hangs as CPI remains close to zero (May’23: 0.2%; 0.1% in Apr’23). Core inflation fell (0.6% versus 0.7%) suggesting that demand for services is fading. PPI also fell further by (-) 4.6% in May’23 from (-) 3.6% in Apr’23, led by energy and metal prices. This also signals weakness in global demand.
Apart from markets in UK, Japan and India (lower), other global indices closed higher. In US, macro data (jobless claims) suggests that the economy is slowing and Fed may remain on hold for now. In Europe, Eurozone entered recession in Q1 (-0.1% versus 0% as per 1st estimates), impacting the investor sentiments. Sensex fell by 0.5%, led by realty, auto, tech and banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
7-06-2023 8-06-2023 % change Dow Jones 33,665 33,834 0.5 S & P 500 4,268 4,294 0.6 FTSE 7,624 7,600 (0.3) Nikkei 31,914 31,641 (0.9) Hang Seng 19,252 19,299 0.2 Shanghai Comp 3,198 3,214 0.5 Sensex 63,143 62,849 (0.5) Nifty 18,726 18,635 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR (flat), other global currencies ended higher against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.7% as investors eye earlier than anticipated end of Fed rate hike cycle. INR ended flat even as oil prices fell. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
7-06-2023 8-06-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0699 1.0782 0.8 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2438 1.2560 1.0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 140.13 138.92 0.9 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.55 82.57 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1350 7.1118 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
10Y yields in developed markets pared back, with US (-8bps) and Germany (- 5bps) falling the most. More than expected increase in initial jobless claims in the US and expectation of inflation cooling further down in May’23, has raised hopes of Fed ending its rate hike cycle soon. India’s 10Y rose by 4bps, as RBI sounded more cautious on CPI in its policy briefing. However, following global cues, it is trading a tad lower at 7% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
7-06-2023 8-06-2023 change in bps US 3.80 3.72 (8) UK 4.25 4.23 (2) Germany 2.46 2.40 (5) Japan 0.43 0.44 1 China 2.71 2.71 0 India 6.98 7.02 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
7-06-2023 8-06-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.74 6.74 0 Tbill-182 days 6.85 6.82 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.85 6.85 0 G-Sec 2Y 6.85 6.90 6 India OIS-2M 6.54 6.60 6 India OIS-9M 6.62 6.66 4 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.43 4.43 0 US SOFR 5.05 5.05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 7-06-2023 8-06-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (2.2) (2.0) 0.2 Reverse repo 1.2 1.5 0.3 Repo 0.3 0 (0.3) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
6-06-2023 7-06-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 136.0 193.0 57.0 Debt 1.5 18.1 16.5 Equity 134.5 175.0 40.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,461.7 662.4 (1,799.3) Debt 1,146.1 1,344.9 198.8 Equity 1,315.6 (682.5) (1,998.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Mutual funds data as of 23 and 24 May 2023
Global oil prices fell by 1.3%, after the White House refuted reports of temporary oil export deal between US and Iran.
Fig 7 – Commodities
7-06-2023 8-06-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 77.0 76.0 (1.3) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,940.0 1,965.5 1.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,292.1 8,336.0 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,399.1 2,407.0 0.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,219.0 2,254.5 1.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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