Economic Weekly Wrap
04 September 2023 - 08 September 2023
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04 Sep 2023
US labour market data gave mixed signals to the market. While Aug’23 print of nonfarm payroll addition at 187K was higher than expectation of 170K, Jul’23 print was revised lower to 157K from 187K earlier. Unemployment rate inched up to 3.8% from 3.5% in Jul’23. The average hourly earnings moderated to 0.2% from 0.3% earlier, on sequential basis. Markets have raised the expectation of a pause with 94% probability compared to 88% a day earlier. US stocks also reacted positively to the same. However, bond market gave conflicting signals. Elsewhere, stimulus measures by PBOC continued. On domestic front, progress of southwest monsoon has been 11% below LPA and Kharif sowing has been slightly higher by 0.4% compared to last year, with pulses still a concern.
Global market closed broadly higher. Stocks in US ended in green after jobs report solidified expectations of a pause by Fed in its Sep’23 meeting. Shanghai Comp rose by 0.4% as China stepped up support for its economy. Sensex rose by 0.9%, after stronger than expected growth data. Metal and power stocks rose the most. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
31-09-2023 1-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,722 34,838 0.3 S & P 500 4,508 4,516 0.2 FTSE 7,439 7,465 0.3 Nikkei 32,619 32,711 0.3 Hang Seng 18,483 18,382 (0.5) Shanghai Comp 3,120 3,133 0.4 Sensex 64,831 65,387 0.9 Nifty 19,254 19,435 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring INR, other global currencies ended weaker against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.6% after a mixed jobs report in the US. EUR fell by 0.6% as Germany’s manufacturing PMI continued to languish in the contractionary zone. INR appreciated by 0.1% supported by positive macro data (Q1FY24 GDP and manufacturing PMI). However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
31-08-2023 1-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0843 1.0780 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2673 1.2590 (0.7) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.54 146.22 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.79 82.72 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2588 7.2663 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan (lower) and India (stable), global yields closed higher. Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 8bps tracking ECB Official’s comments. US and UK’s 10Y yield rose by 7bps each. In the US, labour market gave conflicting signals. Even Cleveland Fed President spoke of a data dependent approach on rates. India’s 10Y yield closed flat. It is trading at 7.19% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
31-08-2023 1-09-2023 change in bps US 4.11 4.18 7 UK 4.36 4.43 7 Germany 2.47 2.55 8 Japan 0.65 0.63 (2) China 2.58 2.62 4 India 7.16 7.17 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
31-08-2023 1-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.77 6.77 0 Tbill-182 days 6.99 6.96 (3) Tbill-364 days 7.01 6.97 (4) G-Sec 2Y 7.11 7.10 (1) India OIS-2M 6.73 6.74 1 India OIS-9M 6.94 6.94 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.31 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 31-08-2023 1-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.8) (0.9) (0.1) Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
30-08-2023 31-08-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 4.6 172.8 168.2 Debt 3.4 20.6 17.1 Equity 1.2 152.2 151.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices rose by 1.9% following stimulus measures in China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
31-08-2023 1-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 86.9 88.6 1.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,940.2 1,940.1 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,404.5 8,479.3 0.9 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,415.7 2,468.8 2.2 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,208.0 2,237.0 1.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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05 Sep 2023
China’s Caixin services PMI expanded at its slowest pace in 8 months dropping to 51.8 in Aug’23 against expectation of 53.5 and previous month’s level of 54.1. This further reinforced that demand conditions are weakening in the region. Elsewhere, in Germany, exports fell by 0.9% in Jul’23 against previous month’s growth of 0.2%, albeit at a slower pace than expectation of 1.5% decline. Imports of the region on the other hand maintained momentum growing by 1.4% against 3.2% decline in Jun’23. ECB President gave conflicting signals on future course of rate, however stating that action over words are preferred. On domestic front, services PMI data is due for release where a robust pickup in activity is expected.
Except FTSE, other global indices ended higher led by optimism around new stimulus measures announced by China. Expectations that the Fed may end its rate hike cycle also boosted sentiments. Hang Seng rose the most, followed by Shanghai Comp. Sensex rose by 0.4%, led by gains in metal and power stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian indices were mostly lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
1-09-2023 4-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,722 34,838 0.3 S & P 500 4,508 4,516 0.2 FTSE 7,465 7,453 (0.2) Nikkei 32,711 32,939 0.7 Hang Seng 18,382 18,844 2.5 Shanghai Comp 3,133 3,177 1.4 Sensex 65,387 65,628 0.4 Nifty 19,435 19,529 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. Investor focus remained on US rate path and stimulus measures by China. While GBP and EUR appreciated, Asian currencies were mostly lower. JPY depreciated the most and fell by 0.2%. INR is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
1-09-2023 4-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0780 1.0796 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2590 1.2625 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.22 146.47 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.72 82.75 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2663 7.2746 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps ahead of sales data which is expected to post a strong print. Even Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps tracking ECB President’s comments. China’s 10Y yield also rose by 3bps as property sector saw some relief with one of the important developer firm avoiding default in payment. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, taking global cues. It is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
1-09-2023 4-09-2023 change in bps US 4.11 4.18 7 UK 4.43 4.46 4 Germany 2.55 2.58 3 Japan 0.63 0.64 1 China 2.62 2.65 3 India 7.17 7.21 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
1-09-2023 4-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.77 6.80 3 Tbill-182 days 6.96 6.99 3 Tbill-364 days 6.97 7.01 4 G-Sec 2Y 7.10 7.12 2 India OIS-2M 6.74 6.74 0 India OIS-9M 6.94 6.98 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.30 5.31 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 1-09-2023 4-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.9) (1.6) (0.7) Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
31-08-2023 1-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 172.8 301.7 129.0 Debt 20.6 86.7 66.1 Equity 152.2 215.1 62.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices rose on hopes of demand revival as China unveiled fresh stimulus.
Fig 7 – Commodities
1-09-2023 4-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 88.6 89.0 0.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,940.1 1,942.7 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,479.3 8,437.3 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,468.8 2,462.5 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,237.0 2,212.5 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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06 Sep2023
The news of Saudi Arabia continuing with its production cut of 1mbpd till Dec and Russia scaling back exports up to 300,000bbl/day has sent quite a bit of shock in the asset market. Crude prices rose to its highest since 16 Nov 2022 to touch the US$ US$ 90/bbl mark. Coupled with this, composite PMI data in the Eurozone dropped to its 33 month low, aggravating growth concerns. DXY also firmed up to its highest since 9 Mar 2023, creating a panic in the currency market. Japan’s official even spoke of steps to be taken to arrest the currency’s falling value. Against this backdrop, sell off in equity market was seen on the assumption of tighter liquidity conditions. Bond market also witnessed sell off amidst inflationary concerns. On domestic front, RBI governor cautioned against rising inflation in his current speech.
Except Japan and India, stocks elsewhere ended in red. Fresh signs of a global growth slowdown emerged as services PMI in China, UK and Eurozone slipped into the contractionary zone in Aug’23. Higher oil prices also weighed on investor sentiments. Hang Seng fell the most, followed by Shanghai Comp. Sensex rose by 0.2%, led by gains in real estate and consumer durable stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
4-09-2023 5-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,838 34,642 (0.6) S & P 500 4,516 4,497 (0.4) FTSE 7,453 7,438 (0.2) Nikkei 32,939 33,037 0.3 Hang Seng 18,844 18,457 (2.1) Shanghai Comp 3,177 3,154 (0.7) Sensex 65,628 65,780 0.2 Nifty 19,529 19,575 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended sharply lower. Growth concerns in China, UK and Europe exacerbated after weak services PMI, leading to increased demand for safe-haven dollar. DXY rose by 0.5% to a near 6-month high. JPY and EUR depreciated the most. INR too depreciated by 0.3% tracking global cues and higher oil prices. It is trading further weaker today, in line with its Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
4-09-2023 5-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0796 1.0722 (0.7) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2625 1.2564 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.47 147.72 (0.8) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 82.75 83.04 (0.3) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2746 7.3033 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China (tad lower) and India (stable), global yields closed higher. US and UK’s 10Y yield rose the most tracking rise in oil prices. Fed officials spoke of a cautious approach on rates. UK’s 10Y yield was also impacted by sharper than expected increase in sales data. India’s 10Y yield is trading at 7.22% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
4-09-2023 5-09-2023 change in bps US 4.18 4.26 8 UK 4.46 4.53 6 Germany 2.58 2.61 3 Japan 0.64 0.66 1 China 2.65 2.64 (1) India 7.21 7.21 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
4-09-2023 5-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.80 6.81 1 Tbill-182 days 6.99 6.97 (2) Tbill-364 days 7.01 6.98 (3) G-Sec 2Y 7.12 7.13 2 India OIS-2M 6.74 6.75 1 India OIS-9M 6.98 6.98 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 4-09-2023 5-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.6) (1.5) 0.1 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
1-09-2023 4-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 301.7 (290.4) (592.1) Debt 86.7 (3.2) (89.9) Equity 215.1 (287.1) (502.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices rose to a 10-month high as Russia and Saudi Arabia extended output cuts to Dec’23.
Fig 7 – Commodities
4-09-2023 5-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 89.0 90.0 1.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,942.7 1,926.1 (0.9) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,437.3 8,482.5 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,462.5 2,454.0 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,212.5 2,193.0 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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07 Sep 2023
US ISM services PMI accelerated to 54.5 in Aug’23 (est. 52.5) from 52.7 in Jul’23, once again attesting to the strength of the US economy. Elsewhere, growth indicators remained muted. In Germany, factory orders fell more than expected by 11.7% (est. -4%) in Jul’23 on a MoM basis, following a 7.6% increase in Jun’23. Retail sales in the Euro Area declined by 0.2% in Jul’23 (MoM) (est. -0.1%) after increasing by 0.2% in Jun’23. In China, both exports and imports contracted further in Aug’23 suggesting that the economy continues to face headwinds even as the pace of decline has weakened. Exports declined by 8.8% in Aug’23, less than the estimated 9.2% decline. Imports too contracted less than expected by 7.3% in Aug’23 versus expectations of a 9% drop.
Global indices ended mixed as concerns over China's growth aggravated. US indices ended in red, amidst rising crude oil prices and subdued growth in labor market highlighted in the beige book surveys. European indices too closed lower after disappointing manufacturing and services data. On the other hand, Nikkei closed in green. Sensex too rose by 0.2%. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
05-09-2023 06-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,642 34,443 (0.6) S & P 500 4,497 4,465 (0.7) FTSE 7,438 7,426 (0.2) Nikkei 33,037 33,241 0.6 Hang Seng 18,457 18,450 0 Shanghai Comp 3,154 3,158 0.1 Sensex 65,780 65,881 0.2 Nifty 19,575 19,611 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended broadly weaker. DXY rose further by 0.1% as US ISM services PMI edged up more than expected in Aug’23. EUR closed unchanged despite weak macro data (Germany factory orders and EU retail sales). INR depreciated by 0.1% weighed down by a strong dollar and higher oil prices. It is trading further weaker today, in line with its Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
05-09-2023 06-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0722 1.0727 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2564 1.2507 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.72 147.66 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.04 83.14 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.3033 7.3180 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and India (flat), global yields closed higher. Germany’s 10Y yield rose the most by 4bps following comments by ECB officials. 10Y yield in US edged up after US ISM services PMI came in stronger than expected. Despite a jump in oil prices, India’s 10Y yield closed flat. It is trading at 7.19% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
05-09-2023 06-09-2023 change in bps US 4.26 4.28 2 UK 4.53 4.53 1 Germany 2.61 2.65 4 Japan 0.66 0.66 0 China 2.64 2.67 2 India 7.21 7.21 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
05-09-2023 06-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.81 6.79 (2) Tbill-182 days 6.97 7.01 4 Tbill-364 days 6.98 7.02 4 G-Sec 2Y 7.12 7.13 2 India OIS-2M 6.75 6.75 0 India OIS-9M 6.98 6.98 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 05-09-2023 06-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (1.5) (0.9) 0.6 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
04-09-2023 05-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (290.4) (254.4) 35.9 Debt (3.2) (96.3) (93.1) Equity (287.1) (158.1) 129.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices rose further led by expectations of tight supply amidst production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as drawdown in US inventories.
Fig 7 – Commodities
05-09-2023 06-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.0 90.6 0.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,926.1 1,916.6 (0.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,482.5 8,358.8 (1.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,454.0 2,443.0 (0.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,193.0 2,193.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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08 Sep 2023
Jobless claims data in the US fell to its 7-month low signalling tighter labour market conditions. Even unit labour cost in Q2 rose more than expected. This data follows host of other macro data in the current week such as core capital goods orders, ISM services print which all pointed towards resilience of the economy. Even New York Fed Chief spoke of a restrictive data dependent policy approach. Elsewhere in Germany, industrial production fell more than expected by 0.8% on SA, MoM basis (est.: -0.4%). In Japan as well, final estimate of Q2 GDP rose less than expected by 1.2% (est.: 1.4%), on SA QoQ basis, on account of weaker demand conditions. Even wage growth slowed down considerably. On domestic front, market is eagerly waiting for the CPI data for cues on rates.
Global indices ended mixed. Investor sentiments continued to be fraught with uncertainty over Fed rate outlook. Flaring up of US-China trade tensions and weak trade data from China also weighed on markets. Sensex bucked the weakness in Asian equities and rose by 0.6%. Capital goods and real estate stocks were the major gainers. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
6-09-2023 7-09-2023 % change Dow Jones 34,443 34,501 0.2 S & P 500 4,465 4,451 (0.3) FTSE 7,426 7,442 0.2 Nikkei 33,241 32,991 (0.8) Hang Seng 18,450 18,202 (1.3) Shanghai Comp 3,158 3,122 (1.1) Sensex 65,881 66,266 0.6 Nifty 19,611 19,727 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended broadly weaker. DXY rose further by 0.1% as US ISM services PMI edged up more than expected in Aug’23. EUR closed unchanged despite weak macro data (Germany factory orders and EU retail sales). INR depreciated by 0.1% weighed down by a strong dollar and higher oil prices. It is trading further weaker today, in line with its Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
6-09-2023 7-09-2023 % change EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0727 1.0696 (0.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2507 1.2472 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.66 147.30 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 83.14 83.21 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.3180 7.3291 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (stable), global yields closed lower. Demand for sovereign yields increased as macro data points gave conflicting signals. UK’s 10Y yield fell the most by 8bps tracking tumbling house prices data. US and Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps each. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 3bps taking global cues. It is trading at 7.17% today, ahead of auction.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
6-09-2023 7-09-2023 change in bps US 4.28 4.24 (4) UK 4.53 4.45 (8) Germany 2.65 2.61 (4) Japan 0.66 0.66 0 China 2.67 2.67 0 India 7.21 7.18 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
6-09-2023 7-09-2023 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.79 6.80 1 Tbill-182 days 7.01 7.00 (1) Tbill-364 days 7.02 7.00 (2) G-Sec 2Y 7.12 7.13 2 India OIS-2M 6.75 6.76 1 India OIS-9M 6.98 6.98 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 5.19 5.19 0 US SOFR 5.31 5.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 6-09-2023 7-09-2023 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.9) (0.8) 0.1 Reverse repo 0.2 0.2 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
5-09-2023 6-09-2023 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (254.4) (319.9) (65.5) Debt (96.3) 21.0 117.3 Equity (158.1) (340.9) (182.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 60.9 410.1 349.3 Debt (900.6) (31.0) 869.6 Equity 961.4 441.1 (520.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as of 22nd and 23rd Aug
Oil prices fell by 0.8% amidst demand concerns after weak data from China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
6-09-2023 7-09-2023 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 90.6 89.9 (0.8) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 1,916.6 1,919.7 0.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,358.8 8,309.3 (0.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,443.0 2,459.1 0.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,193.5 2,196.0 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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