Economic Weekly Wrap 03
December 2024 – 03 January 2025
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30 Dec 2024
In the coming days, investors will turn their focus towards the US jobs report which might offer some guidance on the strength of the economy. Furthermore, earnings report for Q4 and upcoming PMI data will also test the market. On domestic front, India’s CAD narrowed down to 1.2% of GDP in Q2FY25 from 1.3% in Q2FY24. Though, the trade deficit was higher at US$ 75.3bn (US$ 64.5bn for Q2FY24) which is largely led by acceleration in gold imports. Capital account surplus increased to US$ 11.9bn (US$ 10.3bn in Q2FY24). With this, the overall BoP registered an accretion of US$ 18.6bn in Q2FY25 against an increase of US$ 2.5bn in Q2FY24. This was supported by robust inflows from FPIs, ECBs and NRI deposits.
Global indices ended mixed in a holiday shortened week. US indices closed in the red amidst a broad-based sell-off. Sharp losses were noted across all the 11 sectors for S&P 500; consumer discretionary and IT stocks dropped the most. Nikkei surged to a 5-month high amidst expectation of better corporate growth in the New Year, especially in the auto industry. Sensex edged up with gains in auto stocks. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
26-12-2024 27-12-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 43,326 42,992 (0.8) S & P 500 6,038 5,971 (1.1) FTSE 8,137 8,150 0.2 Nikkei 39,568 40,281 1.8 Hang Seng 20,098 20,090 0 Shanghai Comp 3,398 3,400 0.1 Sensex 78,472 78,699 0.3 Nifty 23,750 23,813 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell by (-) 0.1%, despite increase in US 10Y yields. GBP and JPY gained, supported by increase in their respective treasury yields. Rise in Tokyo CPI and industrial production in Japan, has revived chances of a rate hike by BoJ. INR depreciated notably. However, it is trading stronger today in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
26-12-2024 27-12-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0422 1.0426 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2539 1.2578 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 157.99 157.87 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.27 85.54 (0.3) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2979 7.2961 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except India and China, other global 10Y yields inched up. Yields in Germany and UK rose the most, followed by US. Drop in US wholesale inventories signals economic resilience persists. In UK, analysts ignore BoE’s slightly more dovish stance and expect fewer rate cuts in CY25 from both BoE and Fed. India’s 10Y yield remains stable and is trading at unchanged levels even today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
26-12-2024 27-12-2024 Change, bps US 4.58 4.63 4 UK 4.58 4.63 6 Germany 2.32 2.40 7 Japan 1.10 1.13 3 China 1.73 1.70 (3) India 6.78 6.79 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
26-12-2024 27-12-2024 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.55 6.67 12 Tbill-182 days 6.69 6.69 0 Tbill-364 days 6.68 6.69 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.73 6.73 0 India OIS-2M 6.65 6.64 (1) India OIS-9M 6.54 6.55 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.31 4.40 9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 26-12-2024 27-12-2024 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.9 1.9 0 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 3.0 0 (3.0) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-12-2024 26-12-2024 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (248.7) (39.9) 208.8 Debt (36.9) 146.9 183.8 Equity (211.8) (186.7) 25.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.1 1,383.6 1,214.5 Debt (2,608.2) 665.0 3,273.2 Equity 2,777.3 718.6 (2,058.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual Funds data as of 19 Dec and 20 Dec 2024
Oil prices rose, following news of decline in US crude inventories.
Fig 7 – Commodities
26-12-2024 27-12-2024 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 73.3 74.2 1.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,633.6 2,621.4 (0.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,845.8 8,871.9 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,029.8 3,014.5 (0.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,565.0 2,558.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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31 Dec 2024
Flash PMIs by Markit indicate manufacturing activity continues to deteriorate across US and Europe. The pace of contraction remained unchanged in Eurozone (PMI at 45.2 in Dec’24, same as Nov’24), while it fastened in US (48.3 versus 49.7) and UK (47.3 versus 48), and slowed in Japan (49.6 versus 49). Manufacturing sector also reported spike in input prices and noted deterioration in future business optimism as US tariff threat looms. In contrast, services activity expanded across US and Europe, signalling sustained consumption demand and impact of holiday season. In China too, while pace of expansion of manufacturing activity slowed in Dec’24 (50.1 versus 50.3 in Nov’24), that of non-manufacturing activity jumped (52.2 versus 50). In India, RBI’s FSR shows that balance sheets of SCBs remains healthy with improvement in profitability, decadal high RoA and RoE, decline in NPAs and sufficient capital buffers.
Except China, stock indices elsewhere ended weaker amidst year-end profit booking. Going into 2025, investors’ focus is likely to remain on the path of Fed rates as well as the incoming President’s policies. In the US, tech stocks led the decline. Sensex declined by 0.6% led by losses in metal and capital goods stocks. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
27-12-2024 30-12-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 42,992 42,574 (1.0) S & P 500 5,971 5,907 (1.1) FTSE 8,150 8,121 (0.4) Nikkei 40,281 39,895 (1.0) Hang Seng 20,090 20,041 (0.2) Shanghai Comp 3,400 3,407 0.2 Sensex 78,699 78,248 (0.6) Nifty 23,813 23,645 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose marginally by 0.1% even as US yields cooled off. JPY rose by 0.7% as flash manufacturing PMI signalled some improvement in demand and output conditions in Dec’24. INR ended flat. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
27-12-2024 30-12-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0426 1.0407 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2578 1.2550 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 157.87 156.84 0.7 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.54 85.54 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2961 7.2993 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China, other global 10Y yields declined. US 10Y yield fell most sharply by 9bps, as investors recalibrated their portfolios and tracked manufacturing PMI data. In Europe, continued stress in the manufacturing sector also dented investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps, as oil prices were broadly steady. Tracking global cues, it is trading further lower today at 6.76%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
27-12-2024 30-12-2024 Change, bps US 4.63 4.53 (9) UK 4.63 4.61 (2) Germany 2.40 2.37 (3) Japan 1.13 1.10 (2) China 1.70 1.71 1 India 6.79 6.77 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
27-12-2024 30-12-2024 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.67 6.54 (13) Tbill-182 days 6.69 6.63 (6) Tbill-364 days 6.69 6.62 (7) G-Sec 2Y 6.73 6.73 0 India OIS-2M 6.64 6.66 2 India OIS-9M 6.55 6.54 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.53 4.46 (7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 27-12-2024 30-12-2024 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.9 2.1 0.2 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0 2.1 2.1 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
26-12-2024 27-12-2024 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (39.9) (140.2) (100.3) Debt 146.9 (183.5) (330.3) Equity (186.7) 43.3 230.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.1 1,383.6 1,214.5 Debt (2,608.2) 665.0 3,273.2 Equity 2,777.3 718.6 (2,058.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual Funds data as of 19 Dec and 20 Dec 2024
Oil prices rose marginally as analysts await US macro data to assess demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
27-12-2024 30-12-2024 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.2 74.4 0.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,621.4 2,606.5 (0.6) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,871.9 8,794.9 (0.9) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,014.5 2,997.8 (0.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,558.0 2,551.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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01 Jan 2025
In the US, treasury yields remained elevated as market adjusted for the potential inflationary impact of the policies that will be laid down by incoming Trump administration. These include stricter immigration norms, tariff hikes and easing fiscal policy. On the domestic front, RBI noted that states and UTs in Q4FY25 will borrow around Rs 4.7 lakh crore through government securities. RBI had previously noted that the states had made significant progress in maintaining gross fiscal deficit within 3% of GDP for 3-years in a row. For FY25, states have budgeted GFD at 3.2% of GDP against 2.9% for the previous year. Separately, the Government notified the interest rates for Q4FY25 will remain unchanged for small saving schemes which includes NSC, PPF amongst others.
Global indices ended mixed. US indices ended in red amidst thin trading volumes. Global stocks remained subdued due to elevated treasury yields. Shanghai Comp slipped after muted manufacturing PMI data. Sensex declined marginally with losses in real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
30-12-2024 31-12-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 42,574 42,544 (0.1) S & P 500 5,907 5,882 (0.4) FTSE 8,121 8,173 0.6 Nikkei 40,281 39,895 (1.0) Hang Seng 20,041 20,060 0.1 Shanghai Comp 3,407 3,352 (1.6) Sensex 78,248 78,139 (0.1) Nifty 23,645 23,645 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended lower. DXY rose by 0.3% as treasury yields inched up. Stronger than expected economic momentum in the US on the consumption side is adding to fears of higher for longer rates by Fed. INR fell by 0.1% and has declined by (-) 2.8% during CY24. It is trading even lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
30-12-2024 31-12-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0407 1.0354 (0.5) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2550 1.2516 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.84 157.20 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.54 85.61 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2993 7.2993 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. While US 10Y yield rose by 4bps, it was down in UK and China. Mixed macro data from the US (weak manufacturing PMI and strong services PMI) is sending conflicting signals to markets. In UK, there are increased risks to growth if US imposes tariffs. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps. However, tracking global cues, today it is trading higher at 6.78%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
30-12-2024 31-12-2024 Change, bps US 4.53 4.57 4 UK 4.61 4.57 (4) Germany 2.37 2.37 0 Japan 1.10 1.10 0 China 1.71 1.68 (4) India 6.77 6.76 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
30-12-2024 31-12-2024 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.54 6.54 0 Tbill-182 days 6.63 6.68 5 Tbill-364 days 6.62 6.68 6 G-Sec 2Y 6.73 6.72 (1) India OIS-2M 6.66 6.66 0 India OIS-9M 6.54 6.53 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.46 4.37 (9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 30-12-2024 31-12-2024 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 2.1 1.3 (0.8) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 2.1 2.1 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
27-12-2024 30-12-2024 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (140.2) (170.7) (30.4) Debt (183.5) 16.4 199.9 Equity 43.3 (187.1) (230.3) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.1 1,383.6 1,214.5 Debt (2,608.2) 665.0 3,273.2 Equity 2,777.3 718.6 (2,058.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual Funds data as of 19 Dec and 20 Dec 2024
Oil prices rose further amidst expectation of improvement in demand.
Fig 7 – Commodities
30-12-2024 31-12-2024 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.4 74.6 0.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,606.5 2,624.5 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,794.9 8,652.7 (1.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,997.8 2,953.9 (1.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,551.0 2,551.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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02 Jan 2025
Global equity indices recorded stellar performance in 2024. However, analyst expects some consolidation as the new year is laced with uncertainties. This is on account of headwinds from global trade and impact of new policies to be announced by President-elect Trump. Separately, in China the Caixin manufacturing PMI slipped down to 50.5 in Dec’24 (51.5 in Nov’24), tad lower than expectation. This signalled that while it remained in the expansionary zone and continued to improve for the 3rd straight month, the pace of growth though has moderated. In Korea, the Central Bank Governor stated that the monetary policy will be ‘manged with flexibility and agility’ given the rise in economic and political uncertainties. In Singapore, based on the advance estimates, the economy expanded by 4.3% in Q4CY24 (5.4% in Q3) and overall growth for CY24 rose by 4% (1.1% growth in CY23).
Global indices ended mixed amidst thin trading volume. US indices recorded annual gains supported by a rally in technology stocks and Fed beginning with easing cycle after 3.5 years. Sensex climbed up with gains noted in auto and cap good stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
31-12-2024 1-01-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,574 42,544 (0.1) S & P 500 5,907 5,882 (0.4) FTSE 8,121 8,173 0.6 Nikkei 40,281 39,895 (1.0) Hang Seng 20,041 20,060 0.1 Shanghai Comp 3,407 3,352 (1.6) Sensex 78,139 78,507 0.5 Nifty 23,645 23,645 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies noted thin trading amidst markets remaining closed in major countries. INR was broadly steady at 85.65/$ mark (historic low), dented by stronger US$ and muted FPI inflows. Markets await more clarity on Fed’s rate cut trajectory in CY25. INR is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
31-12-2024 1-01-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0407 1.0354 (0.5) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2550 1.2516 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.84 157.20 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.61 85.65 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2961 7.2993 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Most debt markets were closed globally for New Year’s Day holiday. Before the close, US 10Y yield was on an upward path, following which India’s 10Y yield also rose by 2bps. Higher oil prices also impacted investor sentiments in India. . Today as well, 10Y yield is trading a tad higher at 6.79%. Markets await US labour market data, due later today, for more guidance.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
31-12-2024 1-01-2025 Change, bps US 4.53 4.57 4 UK 4.61 4.57 (4) Germany 2.40 2.37 (3) Japan 1.13 1.10 (2) China 1.71 1.68 (4) India 6.76 6.78 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
31-12-2024 1-01-2025 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.54 6.55 1 Tbill-182 days 6.68 6.71 3 Tbill-364 days 6.68 6.69 1 G-Sec 2Y 6.72 6.71 (1) India OIS-2M 6.66 6.65 (1) India OIS-9M 6.53 6.54 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.46 4.37 (9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 31-12-2024 1-01-2025 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.3 1.0 (0.3) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 2.1 2.1 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
30-12-2024 31-12-2024 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (170.7) (378.9) (208.3) Debt 16.4 246.0 229.6 Equity (187.1) (625.0) (437.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 169.1 1,383.6 1,214.5 Debt (2,608.2) 665.0 3,273.2 Equity 2,777.3 718.6 (2,058.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual Funds data as of 19 Dec and 20 Dec 2024
Oil prices inched up, as China assures more policy support for growth in CY25.
Fig 7 – Commodities
31-12-2024 1-01-2025 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.4 74.6 0.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,606.5 2,624.5 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,794.9 8,652.7 (1.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,997.8 2,953.9 (1.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,551.0 2,551.5 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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03 Jan 2025
At the end of 2024 US economy continued to give mixed signal regarding growth. Mortgage applications for the week ending 27 Dec fell by (-) 12.6%, following (-) 10.7% in the previous week. Average 30Y-fixed mortgage rate jumped sharply to 6.97% towards the end of the year from 6.75% in the week before. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 28 Dec, fell by 9k to 211k (est.: 222k)—lowest in 8 months. Continuing claims also declined. This reaffirms the view that Fed will cut rates less aggressively this year. Even BoE may not be able to lower rates sharply, as continuous rise in nationwide house prices indicates that price pressures still remain. House prices were up by 4.7% (YoY) in Dec’24 (est.: 3.8%) versus 3.7% increase in Nov’24. Globally, manufacturing conditions remain weak, with Markit PMI index down to 49.6 in Dec’24 from 50 in Nov’24.
Except UK and India, stocks elsewhere closed lower. US stocks fell as a strong dollar and prospects of a shallow rate cuts weighed on sentiments. Stocks in China fell on the first trading day of the year amidst concerns over worsening trade relations with the US. In India, Sensex surged led by gains in auto stocks. It is however trading lower today, while Asian markets are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
1-1-2025 2-1-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,544 42,392 (0.4) S & P 500 5,882 5,869 (0.2) FTSE 8,173 8,260 1.1 Nikkei 40,281 39,895 (1.0) Hang Seng 20,060 19,623 (2.2) Shanghai Comp 3,352 3,263 (2.7) Sensex 78,507 79,944 1.8 Nifty 23,743 24,189 1.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended weaker. DXY rose to a ~2-year high as continued strength in US labour market cemented the case for fewer rate cuts. EUR and GBP declined the most. INR depreciated to a fresh record low and is trading further weaker today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
1-1-2025 2-1-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0354 1.0265 (0.9) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2516 1.2380 (1.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 157.20 157.50 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.65 85.76 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2993 7.2994 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield was down a tad, tracking mixed macro data. UK’s 10Y yield reacted to higher than expected increase in nationwide house prices. In China, hopes of a rate cut by PBOC lowered 10Y yield. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps, as oil prices continue to inch up. It is trading even higher today, at 6.80%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
1-1-2025 2-1-2025 Change, bps US 4.57 4.56 (1) UK 4.57 4.60 3 Germany 2.37 2.38 1 Japan 1.13 1.10 (2) China 1.68 1.62 (5) India 6.78 6.79 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
1-1-2025 2-1-2025 change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.55 6.58 3 Tbill-182 days 6.71 6.67 (4) Tbill-364 days 6.69 6.67 (2) G-Sec 2Y 6.71 6.72 0 India OIS-2M 6.65 6.66 1 India OIS-9M 6.54 6.54 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.37 4.49 12 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
Rs tn 1-1-2025 2-1-2025 change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.0 0.7 (0.3) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 2.1 2.1 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
31-12-2024 1-1-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (378.9) (79.4) 299.5 Debt 246.0 (9.7) (255.7) Equity (625.0) (69.7) 555.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,021.3 5,972.9 4,951.6 Debt (1,796.4) 3,065.9 4,862.3 Equity 2,817.7 2,907.0 89.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Mutual Funds data as of 19 Dec and 20 Dec 2024
Oil prices rose, amidst hopes of policy support and lower rates across countries.
Fig 7 – Commodities
1-1-2025 2-1-2025 % change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.6 75.9 1.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,624.5 2,657.9 1.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,652.7 8,691.7 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,953.9 2,900.9 (1.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,551.5 2,529.0 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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