Economic Weekly Wrap
16 December 2024 - 20 December 2024
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16 Dec 2024
Economic activity in China remains worrisome, as both consumption and investment demand fades. Retail sales in Nov’24 rose by 3% (weakest in 3 months and below 5% est.) following 4.8% growth in Oct’24. FAI growth also slowed to 3.3% in JanNov’24 period, from 3.4% during Jan-Oct’24. China’s property sector continues to act as a drag with property investment declining by (-) 10.4% versus (-) 10.3% during Jan-Oct’24. Government officials have recently indicated that they will follow a loose fiscal and monetary policy next year, and target for steady growth (likely 5% next year as well). More concrete measures are expected to be announced, once Trump administration takes charge in the US and announces tariffs. Investors also await latest economic projections by Fed to gauge how inflation risks are incorporated. Following 25bps rate cut this week, Fed is expected to remain on pause in Jan’25.
Barring domestic indices, other global indices ended in red. European markets closed lower after disappointing data (UK's GDP and weakness Germany's export). Investors will turn their focus towards the upcoming Fed policy. Sensex closed higher supported by gains in IT and consumer durable stocks. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
12-12-2024 13-12-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 43,914 43,828 (0.2) S & P 500 6,051 6,051 0 FTSE 8,312 8,300 (0.1) Nikkei 39,849 39,470 (1.0) Hang Seng 20,397 19,971 (2.1) Shanghai Comp 3,462 3,392 (2.0) Sensex 81,290 82,133 1.0 Nifty 24,549 24,768 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except for the EUR and INR, other global currencies ended lower. Following expectations of a rate cut by the Fed, DXY closed lower. JPY weakened amidst investors scaling back rate hike expectations. INR strengthened, given easing inflation and recovery in equity markets. It is trading at similar levels today and Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
12-12-2024 13-12-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0468 1.0501 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2673 1.2619 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 152.63 153.65 0.7 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.87 84.80 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2691 7.2736 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Asia, 10Y yields elsewhere inched up. Yield in US rose the most (7bps), as investors expect a pause from Fed in Jan’25, following a rate cut this month. They also await information on new economic projections. In UK, analysts expect BoE to keep rate on hold, despite weakening growth. India’s 10Y yield eased by 1bps, and is trading broadly unchanged even today (6.73%).
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
12-12-2024 13-12-2024 Change, bps US 4.33 4.40 7 UK 4.36 4.41 5 Germany 2.21 2.26 5 Japan 1.05 1.04 (1) China 1.82 1.78 (4) India 6.74 6.73 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
12-12-2024 13-12-2024 Change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.43 6.45 2 Tbill-182 days 6.59 6.61 2 Tbill-364 days 6.55 6.57 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.64 6.67 3 India OIS-2M 6.62 6.62 0 India OIS-9M 6.44 6.44 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.62 4.62 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
12-12-2024 13-12-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.5) (0.2) 0.3 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
11-12-2024 12-12-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 17.8 (952.1) (969.9) Debt (5.1) (532.2) (527.1) Equity 23.0 (419.9) (442.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (4,834.7) 4,061.4 8,896.1 Debt (5,829.7) 1,727.2 7,556.9 Equity 994.9 2,334.1 1,339.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual funds data as of 10 Dec and 11 Dec 2024
Oil prices rose, due to supply concerns (possible sanctions on Russia and Iran).
Fig 7 – Commodities
12-12-2024 13-12-2024 % Change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 73.4 74.5 1.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,680.7 2,648.2 (1.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,972.6 8,940.5 (0.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,045.3 3,070.6 0.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,599.5 2,605.0 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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17 Dec 2024
Markit flash PMIs show that manufacturing activity remains under stress in Europe and US. Within Europe, both the major economies, Germany and France, have reported acceleration in pace of contraction, as new order inflows record steep decline. In both US and UK, input prices also remain a concern, with notable uptick visible. On the other hand, services sector activity expanded across countries, supported by festive demand. Investors now await slew of central bank decisions byUS Fed, BoJ, BoE, to gauge the outlook for CY25. Domestically, India’s both services and manufacturing sector activity expanded, boosted by higher order inflows, employment and production. Higher prices are making a comeback in both sectors. Separately, India’s trade deficit in Nov’24 rose to a record high of US$ 37.8bn (US$ 27.1bn in Oct’24), due to sharp rise in gold imports (US$ 7.7bn MoM).
Barring Nikkei (flat) and S&P500, other global indices ended lower. Disappointing retail sales data from China dragged down the Asian indices. Additionally, tariff threat from the US added to the concerns. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng dropped the most. Sensex also fell, led by losses in metal and IT stocks. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
13-12-2024 16-12-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 43,828 43,717 (0.3) S & P 500 6,051 6,074 0.4 FTSE 8,300 8,262 (0.5) Nikkei 39,470 39,457 0 Hang Seng 19,971 19,795 (0.9) Shanghai Comp 3,392 3,386 (0.2) Sensex 82,133 81,749 (0.5) Nifty 24,768 24,668 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR and GBP, other global currencies ended lower. Amidst expectations of rate cut by the Fed, DXY eased. Moreover, investors are expecting a 37% chance of another 25ps rate cut in CY25. INR depreciated amidst weakness in Yuan and elevated US yields. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
13-12-2024 16-12-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0501 1.0512 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2619 1.2683 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 153.65 154.15 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.80 84.87 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2736 7.2839 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Yield in US remained flat, while it inched up in UK and Japan. Investors await Fed rate cut guidance for CY25. In UK, stronger than expected flash services PMI and anticipation of elevated policy rates for longer, pushed yields higher. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, and is trading even higher at 6.75% today, tracking global cues.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-12-2024 16-12-2024 Change, bps US 4.40 4.40 0 UK 4.41 4.44 3 Germany 2.26 2.25 (1) Japan 1.04 1.07 3 China 1.78 1.73 (5) India 6.73 6.74 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
13-12-2024 16-12-2024 Change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.45 6.41 (4) Tbill-182 days 6.61 6.58 (3) Tbill-364 days 6.57 6.53 (4) G-Sec 2Y 6.67 6.68 1 India OIS-2M 6.62 6.63 1 India OIS-9M 6.44 6.45 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.62 4.60 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
13-12-2024 16-12-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) (0.2) 1.1 1.3 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0 0.8 0.8 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
12-12-2024 13-12-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (952.1) 328.3 1,280.4 Debt (532.2) (17.9) 514.4 Equity (419.9) 346.1 766.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 4,061.4 712.9 (3,348.4) Debt 1,727.2 (1,932.7) (3,659.9) Equity 2,334.1 2,645.6 311.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual funds data as of 11 Dec and 12 Dec 2024
Oil prices fell, tracking weak consumption data from China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
13-12-2024 16-12-2024 % Change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 74.5 73.9 (0.8) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,648.2 2,652.7 0.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,940.5 8,942.5 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,070.6 3,030.3 (1.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,605.0 2,566.5 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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18 Dec 2024
US retail sales rose by 0.7% (MoM) in Nov’24, up from 0.5% in Oct’24. Seasonal factors were at play here, with holiday shopping boosting online sales and sales of furniture, electronics and appliances, and sporting goods. Notably, interest sensitive auto sales were also higher. In contrast, industrial production fell by (-) 0.1% in Nov’24 (est.: +0.3%), following (-) 0.4% decline in Oct’24. The drag came from utilities and mining sector, while manufacturing output improved. Investors now await guidance on Fed’s rate cut trajectory next year. In case of BoE, analysts have trimmed their hopes of aggressive rate cuts in CY25, as average weekly earnings continue to inch up. ECB on the other hand, is expected to cut rates significantly, given weak economic conditions in Germany. Its IFO index eased to 84.7 in Dec’24 from 85.6 in Nov’24, tracking political developments in US and Germany
Global indices ended lower ahead of the Fed policy decision. FTSE was down dimming hopes of faster rate cuts given the recent wage growth data. Sensex too ended in red and was dragged down by losses in metal and auto stocks. It is trading lower today while Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
16-12-2024 17-12-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 43,717 43,450 (0.6) S & P 500 6,074 6,051 (0.4) FTSE 8,262 8,195 (0.8) Nikkei 39,457 39,365 (0.2) Hang Seng 19,795 19,700 (0.5) Shanghai Comp 3,386 3,361 (0.7) Sensex 81,749 80,684 (1.3) Nifty 24,668 24,336 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY strengthened supported by strong retail sales data. Investors turned their focus towards the major central bank decisions, with the BoE and BoJ expected to hold rates, while the Fed is likely to lower them. INR ended flat. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
16-12-2024 17-12-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0512 1.0491 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2683 1.2710 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 154.15 153.46 0.4 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.87 84.90 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2839 7.2842 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Yield in US remained flat, while it inched up in UK sharply. Average weekly earnings in the UK rose more than expected, leading to more concerns around BoE’s rate cut trajectory next year. In Germany, subdued business outlook dented sentiments. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, but is trading a tad lower at 6.75% today, tracking dip in oil prices.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
16-12-2024 17-12-2024 Change, bps US 4.40 4.40 0 UK 4.44 4.52 8 Germany 2.25 2.23 (2) Japan 1.07 1.08 1 China 1.73 1.73 0 India 6.74 6.76 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
16-12-2024 17-12-2024 Change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.41 6.44 3 Tbill-182 days 6.58 6.59 1 Tbill-364 days 6.53 6.55 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.68 6.69 1 India OIS-2M 6.63 6.65 2 India OIS-9M 6.45 6.50 5 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.60 4.65 5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
16-12-2024 17-12-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.1 1.4 0.3 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 0.8 1.5 0.7 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
13-12-2024 16-12-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 328.3 224.8 (103.5) Debt (17.9) 202.5 220.4 Equity 346.1 22.3 (323.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 712.9 (6,355.2) (7,068.1) Debt (1,932.7) (6,301.8) (4,369.2) Equity 2,645.6 (53.4) (2,699.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Dec and 13 Dec 2024
Oil prices fell further, as fear of weak demand looms.
Fig 7 – Commodities
16-12-2024 17-12-2024 % Change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 73.9 73.2 (1.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,652.7 2,646.8 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,942.5 8,869.0 (0.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,030.3 3,008.6 (0.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,566.5 2,542.5 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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19 Dec 2024
In line with market expectations, US Fed reduced policy rates by 25bps to 4.25- 4.5%, bringing the cumulative cuts since Sep’24 to 100bps. However, more hawkish projections for next year spooked the markets. The dot plot indicates only 2 rate cuts in CY25. In the near-term, Fed expects GDP to have performed better than expected in CY24 (2.5% versus 2% estimated in Sep’24) and inflation will remain sticky (2.4% versus 2.3%). Next year as well, growth is expected to be higher (2.1% versus 2%), but worryingly, more significant jump is projected in inflation (2.5% versus 2.1%). In Asia, BoJ kept its policy rate unchanged (est.: 25bps hike), with a split 8-1 vote. Market expectations were split between a rate hike and pause. Uncertainty around price trajectory and global policy developments (President-elect Trump takes charge next month), led to this decision. Japan’s CPI has remained above BoJ’s target (2%) for 30 consecutive months so far, however, pressures appear to be easing now.
Global indices ended mixed. Stocks in US witnessed a sharp sell-off as the Fed dot plot indicated only two rate cuts in 2025 with Fed Chair emphasising the need to be vigilant on inflation. Sensex ended lower led by losses in power and metal stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian indices following weak global cues
Fig 1 – Stock markets
17-12-2024 18-12-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 43,450 42,327 (2.6) S & P 500 6,051 5,872 (2.9) FTSE 8,195 8,199 0 Nikkei 39,365 39,082 (0.7) Hang Seng 19,700 19,865 0.8 Shanghai Comp 3,361 3,382 0.6 Sensex 80,684 80,182 (0.6) Nifty 24,336 24,199 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
The dollar rose sharply as Fed’s projection indicated fewer rate cuts in 2025. EUR declined by over 1% as ECB is likely to cut rates more aggressively. JPY also fell by 0.9%. INR depreciated and is trading at a fresh record low of 85.07/$ today. Asian currencies are also weaker.
Fig 2 – Currencies
17-12-2024 18-12-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0491 1.0353 (1.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2710 1.2574 (1.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 153.46 154.80 0.9 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.90 84.96 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2842 7.2857 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and India, other global 10Y yields closed higher. US 10Y yield jumped the most by 12bps, as Fed’s dot plot indicates only 2 rate cuts next year. Upward revision to growth and inflation also impacted investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps. However, tracking global cues, and rise in oil prices, it is trading higher at 6.78% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-12-2024 18-12-2024 Change, bps US 4.40 4.51 11 UK 4.52 4.56 4 Germany 2.23 2.25 2 Japan 1.08 1.08 0 China 1.73 1.77 4 India 6.76 6.75 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
17-12-2024 18-12-2024 Change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.44 6.45 1 Tbill-182 days 6.59 6.63 4 Tbill-364 days 6.55 6.62 7 G-Sec 2Y 6.69 6.68 (1) India OIS-2M 6.65 6.64 (1) India OIS-9M 6.50 6.49 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.65 4.62 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
17-12-2024 18-12-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.4 1.5 0.1 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 1.5 2.0 0.5 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
16-12-2024 17-12-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 224.8 (401.2) (626.0) Debt 202.5 (120.1) (322.6) Equity 22.3 (281.0) (303.3) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 712.9 (6,355.2) (7,068.1) Debt (1,932.7) (6,301.8) (4,369.2) Equity 2,645.6 (53.4) (2,699.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual funds data as of 12 Dec and 13 Dec 2024
Oil prices rose a tad, as US crude inventories declined, and Fed cut rates.Fig 7 – Commodities
17-12-2024 18-12-2024 % Change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 73.2 73.4 0.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,646.8 2,585.4 (2.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 8,869.0 8,909.5 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,008.6 2,968.5 (1.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,542.5 2,528.5 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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20 Dec 2024
US macro data shows that economy continues to remain strong, giving further merit to Fed’s higher for longer rates in CY25. GDP growth for Q3 was revised up to 3.1% from 2.8% estimated earlier, backed by upward revisions to exports and private consumption. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 14 Dec’24, fell by 22k from the previous week to 220k (est.: 229k), signalling labour market strength. Existing home sales jumped by 4.8% (MoM) to 4.15mn units (highest since Mar’24), despite higher mortgage rates. Elsewhere in Europe, BoE decided to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.75%, but the spilt amongst members widened. Markets are pricing in fewer rate cuts (upto two) in CY25, given continued increase in wage growth and elevated services inflation. In Germany, Gfk consumer confidence shows sentiment improving for Jan’25 (-21.3 from -23.1 in Dec’24), despite labour market concerns.
Barring Dow Jones (flat), other global indices ended lower. Investors monitored the Fed's decision and hawkish outlook. US data (weekly jobless claims and Q3 GDP print) further supported this decision. Sensex ended in red led by sharp losses in banking and consumer durable stocks. It is trading lower today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
18-12-2024 19-12-2024 Change, % Dow Jones 42,327 42,342 0 S & P 500 5,872 5,867 (0.1) FTSE 8,199 8,105 (1.1) Nikkei 39,082 38,814 (0.7) Hang Seng 19,865 19,753 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,382 3,370 (0.4) Sensex 80,182 79,218 (1.2) Nifty 24,199 23,952 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except for the EUR, other global currencies closed lower. DXY strengthened amidst stronger reading for Q3 GDP data (3.1% from previous estimate of 2.8%). Yen weakened after the BoJ with an 8-1 vote decided to keep rates on hold. INR depreciated. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
18-12-2024 19-12-2024 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.0353 1.0363 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.2574 1.2502 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 154.80 157.44 1.7 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.96 85.08 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2857 7.2958 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (flat), other global 10Y yields inched further up. Upward revision to US Q3 GDP, and lower than expected jobless claims reaffirmed fears that Fed will cut rates more slowly in CY25. BoE also seems less willing to cut rates aggressively next year. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, tracking global cues. It is trading steady today, despite decline in oil prices.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
18-12-2024 19-12-2024 Change, bps US 4.51 4.56 5 UK 4.56 4.58 2 Germany 2.25 2.31 6 Japan 1.08 1.08 0 China 1.77 1.76 (1) India 6.75 6.79 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
18-12-2024 19-12-2024 Change in bps Tbill-91 days 6.45 6.47 2 Tbill-182 days 6.63 6.65 2 Tbill-364 days 6.62 6.64 2 G-Sec 2Y 6.68 6.73 5 India OIS-2M 6.64 6.67 3 India OIS-9M 6.49 6.56 7 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.70 4.70 0 US SOFR 4.62 4.57 (5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
18-12-2024 19-12-2024 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit) 1.5 1.6 0.1 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo 2.0 2.0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-12-2024 18-12-2024 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (401.2) (238.7) 162.5 Debt (120.1) (130.1) (10.0) Equity (281.0) (108.6) 172.4 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (5,373.4) (578.0) 4,795.3 Debt (4,902.9) (2,667.6) 2,235.3 Equity (470.5) 2,089.6 2,560.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual funds data as of 16 Dec and 17 Dec 2024
Oil prices fell, driven by demand concerns in China and stronger U$.
Fig 7 – Commodities
18-12-2024 19-12-2024 % Change Brent crude (US$/bbl) 73.4 72.9 (0.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 2,585.4 2,594.0 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 8,909.5 8,770.4 (1.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,968.5 2,942.1 (0.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,528.5 2,507.0 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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