Economic Weekly Wrap
09 December 2024 - 13 December 2024

In the US, payroll data showed some aberration as it went up to 227K in Nov’24 from 36K, last month. This is driven by exogenous weather and strike related shocks, which is going to wane out soon. Thus, it builds up expectation of rate cut by Fed in Dec, probability of which surged to 86% against 66%, last week (CME Fed watch data). On the other hand, US consumer sentiment surged to its highest (U. of Michigan) since Apr’24 and inflation expectations remained sticky as some pricing in of inflationary policies under new political ideology have happened. Central bank officials also gave conflicting signals with Fed official acknowledging underlying price pressure and BoE official highlighting risks to restrictive policy. On domestic front, RBI’s policy remains well balanced with status quo on rates, cut in CRR for infusing liquidity and an array of regulatory developments to restore financial stability.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields softened as traders priced in disruption in payroll numbers due to exogenous factors. Yields of other economies traded in a thin range. India’s 10Y yield witnessed sharp pickup as RBI kept policy rates unchanged albeit increase in inflation projections. Some upside pressure also reigned in as RBI flagged risks wrt. liquidity conditions. India’s 10Y yield is trading at 6.73% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual funds data as of 02 Dec and 03 Dec 2024

Oil prices fell, as demand concerns weighed on sentiments

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

CPI inflation in China eased to 0.2% in Nov’24 (est. 0.5%) from 0.3%, signalling continued weakness in domestic demand. Deflation in PPI eased from 2.9% in Oct’24 to 2.5% in Nov’24, but remained in the negative territory for 26 straight months. Export growth also moderated to 6.7% in Nov’24 (est. 8.5%) from 12.7%. Imports on the other hand, declined unexpectedly by 3.9% (est. 0.3%). Market sentiments were however supported by reports of fresh monetary and fiscal policy measures likely to be announced next year. In Japan, GDP growth for Q3 CY24 was revised to 1.2% from 0.9% earlier. However, private consumption was estimated lower lending uncertainty to an expected BoJ rate hike. In line with expectations, Reserve Bank of Australia kept its policy rate unchanged for the 11th meeting. In India, markets are likely to react to the appointment of the new RBI Governor.

Global indices ended mixed. Markets in US fell the most. Setback to tech stocks and elevated bond yields dragged the indices lower. Investors now await US CPI report for more cues. FTSE gained, as news of China’s stimulus plans boosted mining and energy stocks. Sensex fell, led by auto and banking stocks. It is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading higher.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except US and Germany, other global yields closed lower. 10Y yield of US rose the most, as investors await US CPI data. This is expected to shed light on Fed rate trajectory next year. Investors will also monitor core CPI for cues regarding demand side pressures. India’s 10Y yield eased by 3bps. Markets expect RBI’s new leadership to expedite rate cut cycle. India’s 10Y is trading at 6.71% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual funds data as of 04 Dec and 05 Dec 2024

Oil prices rose tracking developments in Syria and its broader implications

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global markets monitored a slew of political and macro developments. This included political turmoil in South Korea, expectation of more stimulus from China’s Central Economic Work Conference and ongoing retaliatory responses surrounding looming trade war. On macro front, US small business optimism held ground and non-farm productivity remained in line with estimates. The crucial CPI reading before Fed policy will be the key market driver. Some sequential firmness is expected in the data. In Germany, CPI showed moderation, ahead of ECB policy which might impact their decision making. In Japan, PPI firmed up raising further bets of rate hike by BoJ to maintain interest rate differential with the US. On domestic front, markets remained watchful of change of guard in RBI.

Global indices ended mixed. Markets in US declined as focus shifted to US inflation report due later in the day. Tech stocks continued to underperform. In Asia, investors assessed weak macro data from China against reports of “looser” monetary policy stance in the country. Sensex ended steady as gains in real estate stocks were offset by losses in power and capital goods stocks. It is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except China (lower), global yields edged up. UK’s 10Y yield rose at the sharpest pace as estimates of neutral rate by Chief Economist shows little scope of steeper monetary easing. US 10Y yield firmed up ahead of CPI data. China’s 10Y yield got comfort awaiting more stimulus. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad and is trading at 6.72% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual funds data as of 05 Dec and 06 Dec 2024

Oil prices rose on demand optimism amidst reports of fresh stimulus in China.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US CPI data firmed up by 0.3% in Nov’24 against 0.2% in Oct’24, on a sequential basis. The YoY reading stood at 2.7%. Core CPI was also sticky rising by 0.3% and 3.3%, on a sequential and YoY basis, respectively, However, this bit of momentum was priced in, and market is still anticipating rate cut of 25bps by Fed in the Dec policy. Among major asset classes, dollar tightened, US 10Y yield firmed up and gold prices moved higher. However, that has a lot to do with the underlying geopolitical dynamics at play. Crude prices firmed up following EU’s sanction on Russia. Elsewhere, Bank of Canada went for an outsized cut of 50bps as tariff fear from the US linger. On domestic market, some downside surprise in CPI is expected which might comfort the yields.

Except Dow Jones and Hang Seng, other global indices ended with gains. Investors monitored US inflation which was in line with market expectations. The possibility of a 25bps rate cut in Dec’24 is now fully priced in. S&P 500 advanced the most, led by a rebound in tech shares. Sensex ended flat as losses in banking and power stocks offset gains in others. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR, other global currencies ended weaker against the dollar. DXY strengthened by 0.3% tracking the US inflation report. CNY fell on reports that China is likely to allow the currency to depreciate next year. JPY also depreciated by 0.3% as BoJ’s rate hike path remains unclear. INR is trading a tad weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mostly stronger.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield firmed up as CPI data showed some build up. UK 10Y yield inched down a tad as liquidity reforms are awaited. Germany’s 10Y yield closed flat awaiting ECB policy. India’s 10Y yield rose marginally and is trading at 6.73% today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual funds data as of 06 Dec and 09 Dec 2024

Oil prices rose as EU announced new sanctions on Russia.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US PPI data showed stickiness on a MoM basis buoyed by food. However, PPI excl. food and energy remained in line with estimates (0.2% & 3.4%, MoM & YoY basis). Jobless claims inched up as volatility might have persisted post-Thanksgiving holiday. Elsewhere in Japan, Tankan large manufacturing index firmed up signalling improving industrial activity. On monetary policy, ECB went in for 25bps cut in its policy rate and signalled a dovish approach. Eurozone growth forecast was slashed down to 1.1% from 1.3% earlier in CY25. Even Swiss National Bank (SNB) went for a 50bps cut. Geopolitical worries, fears of higher tariff and likely pressure on currency is giving headroom to global central banks for an easier monetary policy. On domestic front, inflation got some comfort led by softening food inflation

Global indices ended mixed. Investors monitored a higher-than-expected PPI reading in the US, along with rate cuts by the ECB, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Canada. Stocks in US fell, while Asian stocks were mostly higher. Sensex underperformed and declined by 0.3%, led by losses in capital goods and oil and gas stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks as China’s policy announcement failed to woo investors.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR, other global currencies ended broadly weaker. Dollar’s rally continued amidst rate cuts by other global central banks, keeping the rate differentials in favour of the US. JPY depreciated as BoJ is likely to defer a rate hike to Jan’25. INR touched another record low but is trading a tad stronger today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual funds data as of 09 Dec and 10 Dec 2024

Oil prices dipped as IEA forecasts indicate a supply surplus in 2025

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research