Economic Weekly Wrap
24 February 2025 - 28 February 2025

Global flash manufacturing PMIs for Feb’25 indicate that activity slowed less than expected in Eurozone (47.3 versus est.: 47), particularly in Germany (46.1 versus 45.5) and France (45.5 versus 45.3). In Japan also pace of contraction eased a tad, while in the US, Feb’25 PMI (51.6) was better than estimated (51.4). However, services activity fell more than expected across Eurozone and US. In the US, weakening consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) to 64.7 from 67.8 in Jan’25, rise in 5-10yr inflation expectation, and lower existing home sales (4.08mn in Jan’25 versus est.: 4.13mn) dampened investor sentiments. In Germany, exit polls indicate highest seats for alliance of CDU/CSU parties. However coalition with a third party will be needed to reach majority. Removal of debt ceiling by the new government is expected to boost infrastructure spending.

Global markets ended mixed. US indices closed in red amidst subdued macro data along with escalated concerns around tariff threats, and early signals of economic slowdown. Sensex tumbled given the persistent FII outflows and high profit booking. Sharp losses was noted in auto stocks. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring JPY, other global currencies depreciated. EUR weakened with investors turning their focus towards election results in Germany. JPY climbed up to a near 4-month high. INR ended up weaker. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: (-) indicates depreciation

Barring China and India, other global yields fell. US 10Y yield was down by 7bps, tracking weak macro data points (Markit services PMI and consumer sentiment index). Yields in Europe were lower ahead of Germany’s election results. Exit polls show win for conservatives CDU/CSU party. India’s 10Y closed broadly unchanged, and is trading at similar level (6.70%) even today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 13 Feb and 14 Feb 2025

Oil prices fell, led by lower risks in Middle East and rising US crude stockpiles.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

National election results of Germany posted no major surprise. A coalition government led by CDU/CSU parties is set to be formed. All eyes are now on fiscal reforms that may be announced. The “debt break” rule allows fiscal deficit to slip to only 0.35% of GDP. This may see some changes in order to boost infrastructure spending. Businesses however remain sceptical as to how much the economic situation will improve in the near term. Germany’s IFO business climate index was broadly steady at 85.2 in Feb’25 from 85.1 in Jan’25, with current situation index declining (85 versus 86) and expectations index noting an improvement. In Asia, Japan’s PPI for Jan’25 inched up to 3.1% from 2.9% in Dec’24, indicating continued upward price pressures

Global markets ended mixed. Investor confidence in the US economy turned shaky amidst subdued macro data, uncertainty on tariff war, and possibility of mass Federal government layoffs. Sensex continued to decline with IT and metal stocks taking the most beating. FPI continued to offload, adding to the pressure. However, it is trading higher today, other Asian stocks are trading lower.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed against the dollar. JPY weakened given the growing speculation of rate hike and another Yen carry trade unwind. INR ended flat. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: (-) indicates depreciation

Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield was down by 3bps, as worries around US economic growth have resurfaced. Germany’s 10Y yield inched up a tad (1bps) tracking election results and following anticipation regarding fiscal reforms. India’s 10Y was unchanged at 6.70%, and is trading flat even today.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 Feb and 20 Feb 2025

Oil prices rose as US announces fresh sanctions on Iranian oil trade.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US data shows that new home sales in Jan’25 fell by (-) 10.5% (MoM basis) to 657k units (est.: 675k) from 734k units in Dec’24. Elevated mortgage rates and seasonal factors (extreme cold weather) impacted sales. The 30Y fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.96% in Jan’25 versus 6.72% in Dec’24. Since then it has come down to 6.85% in Feb’25 so far but still remains ~80bps higher than Sep’24 level. Risks of stagflation have thus increased and investors expect Fed to lower rates by 50bps in H2CY25, despite build up in inflationary expectations (consumer sentiment indices and tax cut proposal). Further, with tariffs on Canada and Mexico set to kick in from next week, and remarks of US President on tariffs on EU, global growth concerns have again resurfaced. In India, to improve credit flow to NBFCs, RBI has restored the risk weights attached to SCBs lending to NBFCs to 100% from 125% earlier.

Global indices ended mixed. Investors monitored comments by US President on tariffs. S&P 500 ended flat ahead of the corporate results from AI stocks. Hang Seng surged with gains in consumer and tech stocks, given the budget announcement of major allocation towards AI research. Sensex rebounded and is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Barring GBP (higher) and JPY (flat), other global currencies ended lower. DXY strengthened amidst news report of US$ 4.5tn tax cut proposal and ahead of the key PCE data. INR depreciated amidst persistent FII outflows. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: (-) indicates depreciation; Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield was down the most by 4bps, as investors expect Fed to lower rates in H2CY25 despite inflationary concerns. Germany’s 10Y yield also fell by 3bps over concerns of weak growth. Indian markets were closed, but have opened today a tad lower at 6.70%, tracking global cues and decline in oil prices

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO

Note: Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 20 Feb and 21 Feb 2025

Oil prices fell as global growth outlook, led by US and Germany, weakens.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Macro data from the US shows that growth held ground in Q4CY24 as second GDP estimate was left unrevised at 2.3%. In the latest quarter however, growth is varied across sectors. On one hand, durable goods orders noted a rebound in Jan’25 (3.1% versus 1.8% in Dec’24), while on the other hand, labour and real estate market appears to be slowing. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 22 Feb’25 rose by 22k from the previous week to reach 242k. Pending home sales in the US fell by (-) 4.6% in Jan’25 amidst elevated rates. As a result, stagflation concerns are reviving with GDP price index revised higher to 2.4% from 2.2% earlier. Possibility of a Fed rate cut in Jun’25 still remains unclear. Domestically, IMF has reaffirmed faith in India’s growth story, driven by its “financial sector health, strengthened corporate balance sheets and strong foundation in digital public infrastructure”.

Global indices ended mixed as escalated concerns around ongoing threats of tariff wars weighed heavily on market sentiments. An additional fresh tariff of 10% will be further levied on China in the upcoming week, as per US President’s announcement. Sensex ended flat. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices.

Fig 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Barring INR (flat), other global currencies ended lower. DXY advanced after US GDP expanded at an unchanged pace of 2.3% in Q4CY24. This comes ahead of the commentary by Fed officials and key PCE data. INR ended flat. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Fig 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: (-) indicates depreciation; Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield ended flat with increasing Fed dilemma, as growth shows signs of slowdown and prices inch higher. Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, ahead CDU-SPD coalition talks. India’s 10Y yield remained unchanged, tracking global cues. It is trading at similar levels today, despite increase in oil prices.

Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Fig 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Fig 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO| Note: Markets in India were closed on 26.02.2025

Fig 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 21 Feb and 24 Feb 2025

Oil prices rose, tracking news around US tariffs and decline in US inventories.

Fig 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research